One thing to keep in mind with particular question (and its sister question for the 17th) is that it resolves specifically based on the Hopkins' CSSE numbers, which seem to lag the numbers coming out of some of the other sources. That might not end up making a big difference, but there's a good chance the CSSE numbers will end up 1-3 thousand off whatever the bleeding edge case numbers coming out via something like the BNO twitter account. Considering the nature of the scale of this particular question, it shouldn't make a huge difference (probably just...

Everyone in entire family, including myself, are showing possible symptoms (not enough that I can't discount other respiratory viral infections), but where I am they won't test you unless you're in serious condition, and none of us are currently that bad off.

This has not occurred, and this should resolve negative.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/10/a-hou…

“A house budget committee has likely killed the 2024 moon landing.”

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I, for one, welcome our new multi-national overlords. :)

@bzial

This article has the governor estimating well below 10 billion:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-governo…

"Newsom estimated more than $100 million in economic damage and said President Donald Trump called him to offer federal support in the rebuilding effort."

I'm always trying to improve my accurate understanding of the world. That requires the elimination of much bias as humanly possible. Quantifying my failure and successes in forecasting aids in that endeavor.

The diversity of questions also helps me better understand the fundamental gaps and strengths in my personal knowledge base.

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There have been no reports that this has occurred. This should resolve negative.

A switch occurred. This resolves negative.

https://www.ocregister.com/2020/03/07/why-we-…

"Why we voted for permanent daylight saving time but don’t have it"

I would recommend a follow-up question set to resolve in a couple of years.

There have been no news reports or official notices of the PLA, PAP, or mainland police being involved in physical interventions in HK.

I think we should open another question on this same topic. Perhaps we should have a longer time horizon (i.e., 2-3 months instead of a month).

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@Jgalt

Unless I'm missing something, based off the resolution conditions, the news suggests this question now has a high probability of resolving as ambiguous come November.

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/us/harvard-fall-reopening/index.html "Harvard will be open for the fall semester, but some or all instruction may continue to be online, the university's provost said Monday." "Our goal is to bring our students, faculty, postdoctoral fellows and staff to campus as quickly as possible," Provost Alan Garber wrote in an open letter Monday, "but because most projections suggest that COVID-19 will remain a serious threat during the coming months, we cannot be certain that it will be safe to resume all usual activities on campu...
@(Jgalt) I suspect Diamond Princess cases were actually already being counted before they had an explicit category for them on the location listing, and adding the category itself caused a temporary problem. i.e., If you add another 454 to the current outside mainland China totals, then you end up darn close to 1348, and accounting for other cases outside of the Diamond Princess that might have popped up the last few days, that makes it seem like they might have accidentally been double counting them in the bottom right graph for a few hours. *— edite...

@Anthony

"...and estimated damage of $10 billion or more."

Has that been established? I've seen references to fire and building damage, but nothing mentioning that amount of damage or even estimates suggesting anything close to that.

I get that the question said the damage estimates don't have to be in before the resolution date and it may very well be 10 billion dollars of damage, but the original resolution date is still years off, so this feels like jumping the gun.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/08/magazine/gene-drive-mosquitoes.html This article strongly suggests that no one's tried to get approved yet for a malaria-combating wild drive as of January 8, 2020. I should also note that the Gates Foundation said they were targeting 2024 for a potential approval and deploying a drive in 2026. https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Test-tube-mosquitoes-might-help-us-beat-malaria Those two sources, combined with your lack of evidence found after searching, strongly support the idea that no one has yet actually submitted ...
From the DEA list: "SUBSTANCE NUMBER SCH NARC OTHER NAMES" "Marihuana 7360 I N Cannabis, marijuana" Just to be clear, the DEA itself has marijuana (ACSCN 7560) classified separately from marijuana extracts on Schedule I (7350) in general and also specifically THC (7370). Note, the DEA scheduling doesn't distinguish between marijuana cultivars. Note there are already existing synthetic THC drugs approved by the FDA (e.g.. dronabinol). The usual strategy is to just take the specific medical formulation and put it on a difference schedule, but still le...

There are only 188,244 total valid signatures on the last updated Cruz report. This resolves negative.

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/recalls/news…

EDIT:

I jumped the gun a little, but this came out:

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/recalls/news…

288k verified signatures, and it goes up to Feb 13, the point they needed to have collected the 1.4 mil+ signatures. So, no recall.

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I see a lot of people are at 99%. That makes me think that some people believe this has already happened. I haven't been able to find a single article* that says the Bundestag has approved it. From my previous examination of Germany law making, it doesn't necessarily seem like that the Bundestag is a rubber-stamp for the federal cabinet, so I'm wondering why people are that high on this question. I'm also curious if people have genuinely seen an article or notice that says the Bundestag has approved the bill, or if they're failing to make the distincti...