@Tamay Wow! Another casualty of this conflict: my brier score.
AP calls it for Biden.
JOE BIDEN DEFEATS PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP
The Associated Press declares Joe Biden the winner of a grueling campaign for the American presidency. He will lead a polarized nation through a historic collision of health, economic and social crises.
@godshatter SCOTUSblog agrees with this assessment:
For those dreading, or hoping, that a conservative 6-3 Supreme Court with three appointees of Donald Trump will overturn the results of the election and deem him to be re-elected: there is absolutely no chance of that happening, whatsoever. None.
News outlets reporting intel that the plan is to divide Ukraine in two making an invasion of Lviv less likely:
Desired goal: Seize the leadership of the state (not specified who) and force them to sign a peace agreement on Russian terms, threatening large civilian deaths.
Result – Ukraine can be divided into two parts, like East and West Germany.
@Roko I disagree with this. High quality questions and an active moderation/admin staff to help review, adjudicate, and resolve questions is why I like metaculus. There are plenty of other places on the internet that have a more laissez faire attitude. If anything, I’d like metaculus to be more focused and opinionated rather than less, and I don’t think this scheme would achieve that.
Is there any interest in continuing to track these events? Any suggestions for what a good next question would be? Some ideas:
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Carl Bergstrom is skeptical of the 90% number.
I don't believe the 90% number. This "arm" of the trial was unplanned and resulted from a dosing mistake. Was it randomized equally across all subpopulations (ages, locations)? I believe not but don't know the details. If not, you have multiple comparisons+confounding.
Related tweet thread making the same point: https://twitter.com/ct_bergstrom/status/13310…
Here is a simple linear regression on the OWID data with China and Russian subtracted out: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18_lHz…
This gives a date of Feb 15th (Jan 22 + 3.5 weeks)
Hopefully the roll out will be better than linear.
I’ve written up my prediction here: http://www.usrsb.in/three-gorges-dam-2020.html
The tldr is that I don’t think the evidence circulating on social media is very compelling (satellite images and rumors), but the amount of rainfall happening right now is worrisome and has caused at least two other dams to fail (one had to be blown up, another “slipped”).
Polymarket, an Ethereum prediction market, poses a similar question.
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