I just lost a Metaculus point (25%), but that's probably one of the lesser things people have lost betting against reddit shitposters this week. ;)

(Edit: It's also straightened out my calibration curve somewhat, because my previous 25% predictions have resolved false a little too often. So really I came out on top!)

— edited by aran

Per JHU, US cases are now at 52k, fulfilling the precondition and making this question equivalent to the other one.

So, since we have extensive past data for this (http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/csv/ contains a ton), I wanted to answer the question: What should we have predicted if this question were given on any other day in history? From May 22 to Dec 31 is 223 days. For every day that lies at least 223 days in the past, what's the floor and ceiling over the following 223 days, and how much did their binary logarithms differ from that of the price on that day? When the difference is >1, then the price either halved or doubled (or both!) within the given time per...

@Augustin You are predicting a median of only 180k a month from now, when cases are already at 105k; does this not strike you as extremely implausible?

The analysis does look fairly interesting: https://github.com/cburschka/popular-names/blob/master/analysis.txt The thirty-year turnover has been increasing throughout the twenty-first century, apparently. As late as 1905-1935, 12 names remained popular; between the 1950s-1980s, only 5 names overlap; between the 1960s-1990s, it reached 1 for the first time. The set of overlapping names has always included either Michael (44) or James (87) or both (23). It has never been empty (meaning that this question would always have resolved positively so far). Bu...


forces the UK government to request another extension to the Brexit process

I see the UK is basically switching from full EU membership to a biweekly subscription model.

Cross-effects - if Pence becomes President for any reason before the confirmation vote, what I read suggests that since he is no longer Vice President, he can no longer break ties in the Senate. A replacement VP would have to be confirmed by both chambers.

Continuing the time series: Date Growth Cases Daily growth (7-day avg) 2020-03-12 0.054891 47411 0.155552 2020-03-13 0.355129 64248 0.175407 2020-03-14 0.169173 75117 0.172777 2020-03-15 0.150778 86443 0.171956 2020-03-16 0.162546 100494 0.176790 2020-03-17 0.155134 116084 0.177091 2020-03-18 0.152683 133808 0.171476 2020-03-19 0.207342 161552 0.193255 A continued growth of 17% now gives us 11 days (Mar 31), an optimistic 15% around 12.4 days (Apr 1-2), and a pessimistic 20% only 9.5 days (Mar 28-29) (Again, note ...

More comment to come later ;

Oh great

@Billcstf04 @Lucifer_666 et al:

I would recommend commenting on your prediction only if you are adding an argument or information that underscores the prediction - an endless thread filled with nothing but "yes" and "no" is just spam.

@CatherineCoppola wrote:

YES President Trump will win!

Your comment suggests you have fundamentally misunderstood the purpose of this site, which isn't to cheerlead for an outcome you personally prefer, but to predict what is likely to actually happen. Please don't comment without more thoughtful analysis.

I just don't think the expense will ever be worth it. The most common use cases for fast business travel can now be fulfilled by telepresence, which was ages away from feasibility when the Concorde was first developed. There's a reason Concorde retired, and the 2000 crash played only a part. If there were enough demand for shaving two hours off a five hour trip to pay for the enormous design, construction and operating costs, you'd think the last sixteen years would have been more than enough time to create a replacement. Technology advances because it...
Per the JHU tracker, the daily growth rate outside China has held steady between 15% and 20%, with a seven-day mean of around 17%. 2020-03-09 32701 2020-03-10 37705 2020-03-11 44944 2020-03-12 47411 2020-03-13 64248 2020-03-14 75120 2020-03-15 86446 2020-03-16 100513 daily growth: 2020-03-09 0.128710 2020-03-10 0.153023 2020-03-11 0.191990 2020-03-12 0.054891 2020-03-13 0.355129 2020-03-14 0.169219 2020-03-15 0.150772 2020-03...

It'd be interesting what the active user base is right now - ie, what number of eligible users are likely to see and respond to this if applicable.

@gjlipman As I understand, yes; the resolution criteria take precedence over the question title. The prediction focuses on what is on JHU by that time, despite the lag.

Rough estimate based on very little information (nothing other than the current count, and the time ranges involved): exp( - (4 / (2018 - 1789) * (2100 - 2018) ) ) = 0.239 (In other words, at a rate of four assassinations per 223 years, the expected number of assassinations is .0175 per year, or 1.432 over the rest of the century, with P(x=0) being exp(-1.432) = 0.239) Obviously there are tons of confounding factors here, but I'm not sure any of them would obviously shift this up or down. The quality of security and surveillance technology has vastly ...

Quite unlikely, especially considering the current way Brexit is going.

Luxembourg and Belgium are the least likely to leave; their trade and banking sectors respectively are strong beneficiaries. Germany, France and the Netherlands have seen eurosceptic parties weakening since Brexit.

Italy is the only country on the list where a Eurosceptic party (M5S) has a credible poll position, but they are facing a grand coalition and are unlikely to form part of the next government.

@jzima wrote:

I do believe he is the visitation of the Abrahamic God on Earth, though. But who has ever heard of God going to Mars?

"What does God need with a starship?"

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You mean there is as yet insufficient data for a meaningful answer? ;)

Any scenario causing a satellite to be dead for over a month and then spontaneously start working seems vanishingly unlikely, compared to things that could destroy the satellite.