I just lost a Metaculus point (25%), but that's probably one of the lesser things people have lost betting against reddit shitposters this week. ;)
(Edit: It's also straightened out my calibration curve somewhat, because my previous 25% predictions have resolved false a little too often. So really I came out on top!)
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Per JHU, US cases are now at 52k, fulfilling the precondition and making this question equivalent to the other one.
@Augustin You are predicting a median of only 180k a month from now, when cases are already at 105k; does this not strike you as extremely implausible?
forces the UK government to request another extension to the Brexit process
I see the UK is basically switching from full EU membership to a biweekly subscription model.
Cross-effects - if Pence becomes President for any reason before the confirmation vote, what I read suggests that since he is no longer Vice President, he can no longer break ties in the Senate. A replacement VP would have to be confirmed by both chambers.
YES President Trump will win!
Your comment suggests you have fundamentally misunderstood the purpose of this site, which isn't to cheerlead for an outcome you personally prefer, but to predict what is likely to actually happen. Please don't comment without more thoughtful analysis.
It'd be interesting what the active user base is right now - ie, what number of eligible users are likely to see and respond to this if applicable.
@gjlipman As I understand, yes; the resolution criteria take precedence over the question title. The prediction focuses on what is on JHU by that time, despite the lag.
Quite unlikely, especially considering the current way Brexit is going.
Luxembourg and Belgium are the least likely to leave; their trade and banking sectors respectively are strong beneficiaries. Germany, France and the Netherlands have seen eurosceptic parties weakening since Brexit.
Italy is the only country on the list where a Eurosceptic party (M5S) has a credible poll position, but they are facing a grand coalition and are unlikely to form part of the next government.
I do believe he is the visitation of the Abrahamic God on Earth, though. But who has ever heard of God going to Mars?
"What does God need with a starship?"
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You mean there is as yet insufficient data for a meaningful answer? ;)