I think 1-2 is much less likely than 0 or 3+ because nobody is planning a manned deep space mission with fewer than 3 crew as far as I know
Will this resolve as the time when the transplant is done, or when it is deemed successful (30 days later)?
I checked the dataset from FAS to see how often this happens (2 or more countries having a 3-year increase of 25%+). It came out to 56.58% for the whole period (1945-2020), and 61.90% for the 21st century.
Updated from 4% to 3% due to time passed.
I found it really finicky to account for transfer windows in my prediction. Is there a reason for why I'm limited to 5 components?
A NATO country has invoked Article 5 once and NATO has 1351 member years. I estimate the base rate to be 1/1351 per member per year.
P(no member invokes article 5 in a given year) = (1- 1/1351)^30 = 98%.
Base rate = 2% per year
— edited by andrmoe
This wikipedia list claims that Russia/USSR has defaulted or restructured its debt 7 times since 1839. This could suggest a base rate of .
I made a guesstimate model to estimate this. Central estimate: 5.9M refugees. P(>5M refugees) = 94%
— edited by andrmoe
Four other sources referring to unhcr:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/04/20/world/un-says-5-million-refugees-have-fled-ukraine/
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/more-than-5-million-people-have-fled-ukraine--says-unhcr/47529944
— edited by andrmoe
I think it will be technically possible to have a self-sufficient off-world settlement by 2100, but that it's more economically viable to import some food from earth.
— edited by andrmoe
Updated from 15% to 11% because of time passed
A question about Ukraine's GDP in 2022 and 2023 could be interesting, just as the ones for Russia.
I'm pretty sure that the first sentence is wrong. Putin was president from 2000 to 2008, then from 2012 to now. At least according to wikipedia.