@MperorM So glad I included this in my "series of easy questions for new forecasters :D"
The greatest good for the greatest number of people
I find it ironic in the extreme that rootclaim makes repeated reference to the overconfidence of experts, but that their challenge requires you to "win a debate", meaning that if you think they are overconfident but not directionally wrong (e.g. assigning 90% to something which you think should be assigned a 60% probability) there is no way for you to win the bet.
@holomanga I think there are some differences, depending on exactly what is meant by concession. What if he ends up just going silent? i.e. he refuses to acknowledge Biden's victory but doesn't make a statement literally claiming to still be President.
— edited by alexrjl
@silly The thing that should hold you back is predictit's fees being so high that it's almost impossible to make a profit even if you are an incredible forecaster.
I won a bunch of points on this but think ambiguous resolution might be fairer given the multi-accounting.
I love that this question is listed under "Human Sciences - Nutrition"
@michal_dubrawski I strongly endorse Michal's candidacy and think he'll be a fantastic addition to the mod team, which is why I, among others, encouraged him to apply.
I made a video about how I'm approaching this series. Those who are interested can find it here.
Thought I'd post once on the central thread rather than on every question.
@jabowery I think it speaks to P(prediction markets are dumb)
@DanielFilan yeah I think that's fair. I'd read it as
report [a positive test by the end of 2020]
But I think
[report a positive test] by the end of 2020
is more natural.
A 20-year follow-up to the original RCT has just been released as a preprint.
I used this question as an example in my Forecasting Beginner series. Intro to Forecasting 02 - Reference Class forecasting
@JonathanRay "Gay acceptance is already so widespread that there's no incentive to be closeted (quite the reverse)."
I'm pretty unconvinced that that's equally true across the US political spectrum.
The lightning round tournament has made this much more likely.
@DanielFilan Should the question be re-resolved in that case? This is a genuine question and not rhetorical. I can't actually see anything in the question test requiring the evidence to be presented before the end of 2020, as long as the test was, however I think teaching us all a lesson in overconfidence is valuable. In my case, a 177 point lesson.
@galen you absolute legend.