@alexrjl add a smile to here if you think the community prediction was good but we got lucky (at avoiding the virus)/unlucky (at having correct resolution).
I don't think you've really understood the 538 forecast. Or for that matter the 'shy trump voter' hypothesis, which seems very unlikely to exist given various analyses of different types of polling, but at least resembles a coherent thought.
At 67 points lost with a prediction of 19%, this has got to be my worst-scoring prediction that I'm proud of.
I really, really want a hoody.
@ThirdEyeOpen I'll happily give you 6:1, which should be a snap for you if you actually believe the 42% and aren't just posturing.
@j.m. I think this is pretty mean. Some people had no choice but to put themselves at higher risk, which doesn't indicate lack of conscientiousness, others were not conscientious and just got lucky.
e.g. At least one person who didn't qualify due to join date but did test positive happens to have been legally required to put themself at considerable risk compared to the population. I've been lucky so far and not got it but am also in that camp due to my profession.
Not taking a view on Bitcoin here but while robust disagreement is not only fine but encouraged on the platform, I'm not sure the recent discussion in this thread has been constructive, and think that it might be usefully refocused at this point.
I have not yet had any symptoms, but 8 of my students have tested postive since schools reopened in September. Almost no masks are being worn in UK schools.
@alexrjl add a smile to here if you know think the community prediction was probably pretty bad based on info available at the time.
Maybe add a 'this question should not earn points' button? It's fairly obvious to me that x-risk questions shouldn't be gamed in an attempt to earn points in 100 years but it might at the very least clean up the comment threads in those posts
Nice work Metaculus team!
@WPR "Trump had a smoking gun which would help him politically but didn't release it because it was classified."
Sounds vanishingly unlikely to me.
@emilowk another way to read this is that the defendant responded to to a man saying he was struggling to breathe by kneeling on his neck until he was no longer breathing.
@Sylvain Note for future KBCs:
Don't. Just don't.
— edited by alexrjl
I really, really hope nobody needs to end up making a "Will at least 10 million..." version of this.
When will a country first introduce Approval voting for national elections?
I find it ironic in the extreme that rootclaim makes repeated reference to the overconfidence of experts, but that their challenge requires you to "win a debate", meaning that if you think they are overconfident but not directionally wrong (e.g. assigning 90% to something which you think should be assigned a 60% probability) there is no way for you to win the bet.
@Anthony currently on 20% and feeling low-key attacked rn
Hoping to see metaculus do a bit better on this one than just predicting the next 5 months for the whole year.