I think it may make sense to repeat this question but without the self-resolving feature. Because it seems like currently people should predict the public attitude towards the lab release (prediction is heavily adjusted towards "maybe it would reach 3% soon" or "My analysis shows that lab release is very likely but the commitee won't say it's >50% likely"). I'd probably be more interested in what is people's actual subjective confidence of lab release. The ["public agencies claim by 2024"](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-...

gwern estimates that OpenAI may currently receive around $120M in yearly revenue from its API.

Multiple other experts confirming the Alperovitch position: "I have to say this is where my analysis leads me as well." - [Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation](https://twitter.com/scharap/status/1473383672304877568) "The expansion of the Russian presence at the border has nothing to do with exercises for the transfer and maintenance of troops. It can be assumed with a high degree of probability that the general decision to attack Ukraine has been made." - [Konrad Muzyka, Independent Defence Analyst focusing on Russia and Belarus...

Seems like some metaphorical use of words "civil war" when describing a social unrest could trigger a positive resolution.

In June, there was around 137K COVID deaths worldwide according do worldometers counts.

Bill Gates's dad died from Alzheimer's: https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/New-breakthroughs-in-Alzheimers-diagnostics Bill has donated money for Alzheimer's R&D a few years ago: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/bill-gates-offers-100-million-fight-alzheimer-s-n820341 https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Digging-Deep-Into-Alzheimers Including $50M to orgs doing things like unconventional clinical trials (source forgotten). Deep brain stimulation for Alzheimer's is an active research area: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=alz...

OK I'll remind myself to ping the mods after we disintegrate.

I don't have sources on hand but the current public consensus seems to be that there's not much evidence for synthetic origin (at least in my perception). However, as China may begin to push [the story](https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/chinese-officials-blame-us-army-for-coronavirus-67267) of the connection between US troops and the virus origination, there is a very small chance of "The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention" making the claim about synthetic origin. The question references "Chinese virology laboratory" so foreign l...
I liked [this blogpost](https://moalquraishi.wordpress.com/2020/12/08/alphafold2-casp14-it-feels-like-ones-child-has-left-home/) on AlphaFold2. It is by professor Mohammed AlQuraishi from Columbia University where he researches protein structure prediction among other main research directions of his lab. It examines what we know about the model and its implications for different parts of biology in detail. "Although I never wrote it in the CASP13 post, my expectation (back then) for when we would nail all the details was another 10 years, i.e., not unti...
The evidence over the last 3 weeks is more likely under the hypothesis of invasion than under the hypothesis of bluff or smth else so I'm updating up. This evidence includes a lot more armed forces being relocated from eastern parts of Russia in an unprecedented way, Russian armed forces entering Belarus for "joint training", US official messages about a false flag operation, more public failures in NATO negotiation, escalation of Western threats in case of Russian invasion. The US rhetoric, in particular, has gone from The United States does not beli...

When will consumer cost of 30x-coverage full genome sequencing fall from $300 (Nebula Genomics) to $100? Tricky to formulate because of subscription models, geographical limitations, limited-time offers.

Do mixture of experts networks count? I think the question needs to be precise on this. Here's a [2017 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.06538) with a net in hundreds of billions of parameters, which contradicts the question assumption that "largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018". The recent 600B [Gshard model](https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.16668) is also a sparse MoE. MoE and dense networks seem to have a very large discrepancy in the amount of compute that they require: e.g. 2B dense transformer was trained with an order of ma...
@(TheSingleMalt) It is my impression that likely the majority of people here might place more weight on the virus escaping from some facilities connected with research in accident, rather than on it being the result of "purposeful manipulation". The last Nature paper sentence that you cite - "However, since we observed all notable SARS-CoV-2 features, including the optimized RBD and polybasic cleavage site, in related coronaviruses in nature, we do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible." - confuses me a bit, because all the...
By a rough count 5/12 states with the most COVID-19 deaths per capita in 2020 over the whole year voted for Trump https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100k (but those states that didn't vote for Trump at the top have really high numbers so you can't outrank them easily) 13/18 states with the most COVID-19 deaths per capita in 2020 over the whole year in the remaining list (without those 12 top states) voted for Trump 11/12 states with the most COVID-19 deaths per capita in 2020 over the last week voted for Trump https://covid.cdc....

So far the track record is not that good: 2020 update

— edited by alexlyzhov

How much will AI programming tools like https://copilot.github.com/ affect the global demand for human coders in 10 years?

My prior view - they may eventually ban it because they have completely failed to control the flow of conversation on the internet via propaganda. It just seems unlikely to happen in 2021-2022. It would require a massive acceleration of their invasion of people's rights, or otherwise extreme protests which are not on the horizon. And they would have neither technical capabilities nor the desire to block it completely like it is done in China - it would work with a VPN. It seems difficult to comprehend and decipher the influence of the new law. I wouldn'...
@(PeterWildeford) VitaDAO seems to have been active from February or March, and this AMA was in May. Also, doesn't seem like Vitalik is that heavily involved in VitaDAO to me despite the name. At least he hasn't authored the whitepaper, is not on the list of contributors and advisors and google doesn't suggest he is publicly involved. Also, Aubrey said something like "if you're listening, don't fuck it up" and this more of a reference to a listener than to somebody on the call. Also, the Aubrey AMA itself is hosted by VitaDAO channel, so he couldn't ...