@rQ9J-gBBv+sm

Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.

Some similarities to the situation in Georgia in July-August 2008 (though on vastly smaller scale). I don't know much about that situation, just citing the articles here. ["Russia railway soldiers leave Georgian rebel region"](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-georgia/russia-railway-soldiers-leave-georgian-rebel-region-idUSL062719320080730) was published 1 day before the start of the conflict by Reuters: > The last of 400 Russian soldiers sent by Moscow to repair a railway in Georgia’s rebel region of Abkhazia began to pull out on Wednesday, en...

@Jgalt this seems absolutely not newsworthy to me. Moscow has a bunch of real opposition candidates on municipal government positions due to the fact that in some cases it was too difficult for the rulers to manufacture the desired result on the elections. The people in the council behind this pursue anti-government policy all the time and have been arrested and fined before for this. Of course they would make such a statement. It would only be a real piece of news if someone installed by the government revolted.

Sources that I know of: - "On March 4, both chambers of the Russian parliament will convene for an emergency extraordinary session. As I understand it, the preventive imposition of martial law in Russia is on the agenda." - [Podolyak](https://mobile.twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1499008228700700689), Adviser to the Head of the Office of President of Ukraine. This sounds as if he has around 60-80% probability that martial law will be enacted? This may be an intel disclosure... I read "on the agenda" as "would be introduced" because if they have the dire...

I created this Twitter list with some OSINT people and military experts I follow. It may be a bit of an echo chamber but there are some good up-to-date source materials and thoughts in there.

Bill Gates's dad died from Alzheimer's: https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/New-breakthroughs-in-Alzheimers-diagnostics Bill has donated money for Alzheimer's R&D a few years ago: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/bill-gates-offers-100-million-fight-alzheimer-s-n820341 https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Digging-Deep-Into-Alzheimers Including $50M to orgs doing things like unconventional clinical trials (source forgotten). Deep brain stimulation for Alzheimer's is an active research area: https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=alz...
My updating history: > On priors: 5% > Dec 11, after the first US intel announcement and military analysts predicting conflict: 15-20% (below community) > Jan 13 - Jan 17, around the false flag operation warning with more buildup occurring: going 20% -> 35% (below community) > Jan 18 - Feb 11: constantly updating but staying within the 35-40% range (below community) > Feb 11, after the US intel about the invasion plan with accelerating buildup: 65% (in line with the community) > Feb 17 - Feb 19, after shelling and false flag operations start: 70-80...
I think it may make sense to repeat this question but without the self-resolving feature. Because it seems like currently people should predict the public attitude towards the lab release (prediction is heavily adjusted towards "maybe it would reach 3% soon" or "My analysis shows that lab release is very likely but the commitee won't say it's >50% likely"). I'd probably be more interested in what is people's actual subjective confidence of lab release. The ["public agencies claim by 2024"](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-...

gwern estimates that OpenAI may currently receive around $120M in yearly revenue from its API.

Multiple other experts confirming the Alperovitch position: "I have to say this is where my analysis leads me as well." - [Samuel Charap, Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation](https://twitter.com/scharap/status/1473383672304877568) "The expansion of the Russian presence at the border has nothing to do with exercises for the transfer and maintenance of troops. It can be assumed with a high degree of probability that the general decision to attack Ukraine has been made." - [Konrad Muzyka, Independent Defence Analyst focusing on Russia and Belarus...
@(tryingToPredictFuture) > The fact that Girkin is still alive and free indicates that 1) his opinion is shared by many high-ranking siloviki, 2) he has some very high-ranking friends I think it may easily be mostly because he's unpopular, not dangerous and doesn't have opportunities to become a leader of an opposition movement. I don't this necessarily implies 2 and especially 1. I believe the point about the blank piece of paper arrests to not be very relevant here. You may think that if they round up people for standing alone with a blank piece of ...

Russia now allegedly has >60% of all its ground combat power (with the projected increase to 70% soon) and >50% of its air power close to the Ukraine border.

— edited by alexlyzhov

I'm not sure why people have updated that much on last week's papers. I'd say the results are somewhat better than I expected but still mostly in line with the projections you could get from considering DALL-E, GPT-3, and other related models? What deviated most from your projections?

— edited by alexlyzhov

Seems like some metaphorical use of words "civil war" when describing a social unrest could trigger a positive resolution.

In June, there was around 137K COVID deaths worldwide according do worldometers counts.

From [Minerva](https://storage.googleapis.com/minerva-paper/minerva_paper.pdf): > National Math Exam in Poland [...] is taken by approximately 270K high-school students every year. > We evaluated Minerva 62B on the National Math Exam in Poland and found that it achieves a score of 57%, which happened to be the national average in 2021. The 540B model achieves 65%." They also report 50.3% on MATH dataset, whereas in the [MATH paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03874) the authors said "We also evaluated humans on MATH, and found that a computer science P...
From [Rob Lee](https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496326602094952462) on objectives: > Could we please move past the land bridge to Crimea idea? In order to achieve that, Russia would have to kill thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and incur serious costs. If Russia decides to invade further, it will have much more ambitious objectives that would be worth the costs. > There are variety of potential Russian objectives people are throwing out that don't make any sense. They don't solve the issues Putin and Russian officials have outlined, they aren't worth...