It astounds me there is not a larger bump around December 14th when the electoral college votes. It seems to me this is a much more likely catalyst for a concession than the inauguration. My view is that if he does not concede by then he is unlikely to ever concede. On that note, does this question resolve ambiguous if no concession is made by inauguration?

— edited by alexlitz

Notable the chief barrier to this resolving positively is Bezos who also has large holdings in space transport with Blue Origin. Movements in the value of space transport, in general, should affect both, I cannot seem to find much on how much Blue Origin is worth right now but it seems they have ~1/3rd the employees. To me, this indicates changes in their wealth differential due to his holding in SpaceX should be pared down accordingly. How much exactly I do not know.

Anything close to efficient markets would indicate the community prediction here is too high. There is generally positive skewness preference and bitcoin is unlikely to be highly correlated with markets, further in a world where bitcoin has valuation spikes (going forward) there is in my view likely to be turbulent market conditions, so it may even have a negative beta. All of this would be putting a premium on the price now even if all value was locked in it going over 100K, and with the current price (16535.70) you would have a tough time justifying a ...

@SimonM Out of curiosity would you predict the same on a question of if it will be worth N or less before 2025 where

I.E. the geometric inverse, for the current price of 17871.80, 3194.01

@moreheadm I would add IA to the list. Chuck Grassley seems unlikely at 87 (to be 89) to seek an additional term.