@qumidium Yes, it's not weird. The speech in the beginning and end sounded like it might end with "...and that's why we will liberate Kyiv within the week from it's foreign oppressors".
Putin ordered the bombings, killing ~300 civilians as a result.
@tryingToPredictFuture Please try to separate established fact and allegations. Putin did a lot of things (including poisoning of Litvinenko), but the apartment bombings are unlikely in my opinion.
Interestingly, I don't think it's possible to get a prediction market question for that ("Did Putin order the 1999 apartment bombings in Russia?") since there's no expected "resolution" any time soon...
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Putin ordered to stop the assault on Azovstal - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-ca… So it seems like for the foreseeable future Mariupol won't be fully under Russian control. That being said, the way that the question is defined it's under Russian control now (50%+ of raions), so the question is - is a retreat, military loss, or transfer of control under some sort of deal likely?
Baseline AGI scenarios imply planet-scale computation which basic physics implies will generate very large amounts of heat. Unless all of that heat ends up being radiated into space for some reason, I don't see this <10˚C.