At this rate, Russia will end up with a much higher (nominal!) GDP than the average forecaster here expects, it's expensive and difficult for Russian companies to convert rubles to dollars, meanwhile commodity prices remain high, so ruble continues to rise until and unless the CBR steps in.
Just a quick comment here that I think it will almost certainly happen (85% now).
If it doesn't, it will have literally been the biggest and most expensive military bluff in world history. One which will have accomplished nothing except cratering Russia's international credibility (at this point, NATO will be correct to regard it all bark and no bite) and bleeding out its markets.
Probably a much more interesting question now is whether Putin will be in power EOY 2024. (March 2024 is when the next Presidential elections happen).
@2e10e122 I think there's a pretty high chance of a war between the US and China, peaking right around the mid-2020s to early 2030s (afterwards, the naval balance of power will shift far too much against the US for it to continue to seriously contemplate containing China).
However, I think it is exceedingly unlikely that 10 million people or even 1 million people will be killed during a predominantly aeronaval war between China and the US, so the consensus estimate of around 15% seems right.
I would strongly agree with this. Let's rerun this question with a more relevant resolution date of, say, 2040.
@Joker Imagine Russia as the Union and Ukraine as the Confederacy. Free population and industrial production ratios are not actually that far off. The South is much more ideologically committed. However, unlike in the historical US Civil War, in this alternate one, the UK and France are financially subsidizing the Confederacy to a practically unlimited extent and supplying it with munitions and materiel through an allied Mexico.
I'll be surprised if there's an Antarctica level human presence on Mars by 2075.
Good question, thanks Emil, will be interested to see how/if Metaculus predictions differ from those of my Twitter followers. https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/13284326…
Updating to community average in light of recent events surrounding Prigozhin's threat of mutiny. Short of this being a hamfisted deception operation (which threatens and demoralizes your own soldiers), there's no way this doesn't reflect badly on Russian combat power.
Updating this to being a coin flip. Large Ukrainian successes on Day 1 of what's widely considered just a diversionary attack in the Bakhmut area is bearish for Russia's prospects and accumulates on the ongoing factional struggle between Wagner and MOD (which I now regard as being preparatory legwork for assign blame to Shoigu/Gerasimov for the failure of the SMO and wash Putin's hands off of it).