@charetteni It has already invaded in 2014. Officially only in Crimea, unofficially in Donbass, and today also officially in Donbass.

The main alternative hypothesis to an invasion seems to be that this is a bluff (at least according to the comments here). By bluff I mean that Russia deliberately wants to make it look like it will invade, but has no real intentions of doing so. Are there any examples in history of such a big military bluff? If yes, how did it go?

Updating a bit, among other things also because of this tweet about Russian state TV: https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/149…

Previously the lack of Media preparation in Russia was cited as a reason against invasion.

In the resolution criteria, am I assuming correctly that "in Ukraine or combat elsewhere outside of Russian territory." refers to Ukrainian borders of 2013, and that if Russia claims Donetsk Oblast to be Russian territory, then that does not actually count as Russian territory?

The community prediction seems too high for me. Is there any recent information that would warrant such a high prediction?

For me, the developments of the Russia-Ukraine conflict make this a bit less likely: The Russian performance, international response, and strong resolve of democratic resistance could make it seem less attractive for the Chinese Government to attack Taiwan.

This comment was originally posted on 2030

Are there any particular reasons why this should be extremely high? I consider it likely, but it would probably take some time and a lot can happen before then.

@AlyssaStevens And why is this not already the case with Transnistria? They have Russian military stationed there, and Moldavia has no control over the territory? "Controlled by Russia" sounds vague, especially considering Russias tendency to not be so clear about the real status of certain territories.

@mumpskin source? Where should one look for such rumors?

@johnnycaffeine May I suggest that you copy this question 3 times, but replace "Kiev" with "Mariupol", "Kharkiv", "Odessa"? I hope this would not be seen as too many questions on a potential conflict.

You could also choose other cities, of course. Ideally, cities that correspond to different Russian strategies.

Why is this so low compared to the Odessa question?

@Aflatun This pdf contains the results. In my opinion, a "Yes/No/Don't Know " is not very informative (compared to probabilistic predictions).

Haven't actually investigated this, but since the invasion is large-scale and the Ukrainian army is still fighting, 1000 deaths does not sound like a very high number.

@johnnycaffeine This is a good idea in my opinion. Maybe it would be worthwhile to do this for other cities, too. This would cover different scenarios. For example, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Odessa could be cities of interest.

I think some people are over-updating here based on the headlines of Russian troop withdrawals (a smaller update might be warranted, however). The source is the Russian defense ministry, no numbers were announced, and I think there was already a similar announcement in December. When the OSINT people on twitter confirm the withdrawal of equipment, a larger update would be warranted. Consider a bayesian perspective: In the case where they do not invade, the main theory was that it was a bluff and that there will be a deal (at least this is my impression ...

I would be interested about more details of my past predictions.

In the graph I can see approximately when and what my past predictions were, but I would prefer to have this in text form and more precise (for example, if I made two predictions minutes apart many months ago, then I cannot see which prediction was first). So I suggest a list with the precise date and time of the prediction, and value of the prediction.

At this point I am cautiously optimistic that SN8 might be succeeding in reaching 1km altitude, but it might be destroyed during a landing attempt. If I understand the other comments and the rules correctly, than this would resolve at 3.

The question resolution could be improved in my opinion. In the sentence "In other words, his equity ownership in Tesla would need to decline by more than 5% by July 1st 2022" it is not clear to me whether a temporary decline would count. For example, if Musk sold 7% now and bought 7% in 3 months, would it resolve positively or negatively? The rest of the question resolution text suggests that it should resolve positively.

Maybe a question about inflation in Russia or the value of the Ruble in the future? For example, will 1 USD > 300 Ruble on 2023-01-01?

The 24 hour goal has not been mentioned in a while. While not impossible, demonstrating 24 hour reuse has no huge economic value to SpaceX. I think it is more likely that SpaceX will focus on Starship and Starlink development.

The title asks about registered users, but the resolution talks about daily active users. I think this should be clarified.