15% -> 75%

Musk must have figured out he'd lose in court.

@(johnnycaffeine) You called it. From the NYT today: >During the first of two arguments on the program, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. indicated that the administration had violated separation-of powers principles by acting without sufficiently explicit congressional authorization to undertake one of the most ambitious and expensive executive actions in the nation’s history. >**The chief justice, joined by other members of the court’s six-member conservative majority, invoked the “major questions doctrine,” which requires that government initiatives...

85% -> 66%

I believe Twitter is going to go through some things before the year is out.


"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned there’s a “serious” risk of nuclear war over Ukraine, even as he signaled the Kremlin is willing to talk to the U.S. to try to resolve the confrontation 'The danger is serious, real. It can’t be underestimated'


While I still think Lavrov is all talk, I've adjusted from 95% to 90%.

"BREAKING: Putin orders military operation in eastern Ukraine"

Remains to be seen if it goes farther than LPR/DPR


Regardless of the legal arguments, I find it hard to believe that this SCOTUS will allow the current program on ideological grounds alone. I also doubt any legislation will pass the House given the current—albeit, slim—GOP majority. Any future executive orders will find itself swiftly challenged in court.

I plan to lower my prediction further when SCOTUS rules against the Biden administration in June/July (SC likes to save the "best" for last).

— edited by Wineclaw

65% -> 85%

If not by the end of this year, likely if/when Trump formally announces he's running for President again (probably in the summer of 2023).

Not >90% yet on the chance that he kicks it before the election.

— edited by Wineclaw