I received a negative PCR test result today.
Is anyone else surprised this hasn't resolved positively yet?
@mdickens I for one thought all along that the class of people who might cause this to resolve positively would have much lower chances of getting infected on average than people in the general population due to behaving more cautiously.
I wasn't that confident in this view, so I still forecasted on the 'same side of maybe' as everyone else, but on May 1st, the day before the question closed, I reaffirmed my 60% forecast, in disagreement with the high confidence of the community. (Scored +99.)
Allow users to see theit forecast history over time on questions.
(The little image at the top left of questions is often inadequate for this, especially when the range specified for the question is too wide leading my PDF to be vary narrow.)
— edited by WilliamKiely
@Jgalt Or when Mars or off-Earth GDP exceeds 1% that of Earth.
Why are users' forecasts hidden by default?
It seems that we would all learn a lot by knowing what other individuals think, rather than merely knowing the median of the community's recent forecasts.
Why did the Community Prediction reach 89% in October 2019 on this question?
Was there a flood of new users forecasting 100% or something?
Would someone like to create a question on whether GDP will double within a four year period by 2050 (i.e. whether this question will resolve ambiguous)?
The New York Times anonymous publications (Wikipedia)
Anonymous or pseudonymous article subjects or sources (13 examples given)
where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX
This seems like a lot of qualifiers that could plausibly cause this question to resolve negatively even if it looks like 'SpaceX landed something on Mars by 2030.'
Does SpaceX build all the launch hardware and landing systems for other SpaceX-branded missions?
I lost 82 points on this question. The true result fell outside my 99% confidence interval.
I've made plenty of careless bad forecasts before, but I remember thinking about this question for at least a few minutes while looking at some relevant data and feeling pretty confident about my forecast, which was even more (over-)confident than the community prediction.
Taking that into account, this might be the worst recorded forecast I have ever made on an question on this site or elsewhere to date.