I received a negative PCR test result today.
Robin Hanson said he's happy to bet against the Metaculus' community forecast on this question ("the median prediction for the arrival of superintelligent AI, according to the prediction site Metaculus"), which was shown as February 9th, 2027 on an image macro in the Tweet Robin replied to: https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/165124…
Would someone like to create a question on whether GDP will double within a four year period by 2050 (i.e. whether this question will resolve ambiguous)?
Is anyone else surprised this hasn't resolved positively yet?
Why did the Community Prediction reach 89% in October 2019 on this question?
Was there a flood of new users forecasting 100% or something?
@mdickens I for one thought all along that the class of people who might cause this to resolve positively would have much lower chances of getting infected on average than people in the general population due to behaving more cautiously.
I wasn't that confident in this view, so I still forecasted on the 'same side of maybe' as everyone else, but on May 1st, the day before the question closed, I reaffirmed my 60% forecast, in disagreement with the high confidence of the community. (Scored +99.)
@Jgalt Or when Mars or off-Earth GDP exceeds 1% that of Earth.
Allow users to see theit forecast history over time on questions.
(The little image at the top left of questions is often inadequate for this, especially when the range specified for the question is too wide leading my PDF to be vary narrow.)
— edited by WilliamKiely
Why are users' forecasts hidden by default?
It seems that we would all learn a lot by knowing what other individuals think, rather than merely knowing the median of the community's recent forecasts.