If I’m reading the API right, 66 users made their first prediction on this question in one hour and twenty minutes before it closed? Possibly all of them 70% predictions?
Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Bull & Bear Market Tables has a table of S&P 500 corrections since 1928, with an average of one correction every 1.7 years.
Scott Alexander says he recently learned they are still interviewing people.
Some researchers suggest the odds of our current reality being a simulation are very high.
Is the first sentence of the question accurate? He’s said before that he assigns less than 50% to it. I propose removing that sentence unless the link is changed to someone who does hold that view.
The maximum is 5.53 now. Community still at 5.13.
It was revised down; the maximum is 4.92 now.
My forecast is a simple extrapolation of the average of the last seven days, with no trend. In the previous series of questions, the trend was frequently the reverse of what the community expected.
A convenience pack of four 12 oz packages costs $49.99 on their website, which is $36.74 per kilogram.
This appears to make 2 a minimum.
The Wolf number can’t be negative so I’d prefer if the low boundary was closed.
Goals turned green on the status dashboard sometime recently.
@Jgalt Looks like 3%.
Extrapolating performance development from the spreadsheet. My mean is 4324 petaFLOPS.
Setting a reminder to update on March 16.