Now that we're in one, we might shorten the closing date.

Astronomers now doubt there’s a Planet Nine:…

Meticulous deep survey chalks up prior "clustering" to known observational biases.

The daily number is artificially volatile due to data-gathering and reporting hiccups (just look at how weekends magically suppress the numbers on a seven-day cycle with the occasional holiday thrown in). That means that one data-recording glitch (such as the Thanksgiving four-day weekend) could create an anomalous number on the next business-as-usual day when all of the data sources play catch-up. Therefore, if you're interested in the pandemic rather than headline value, then you should ask about the 7-day moving average that smooths out the artifacts...

In the state of Washington (one of the hardest hit) the Dept H says it can only test 100 per day. That effectively caps the reported growth rate in the state because facilities can't grow exponentially like a pandemic.

In other words, when you think on "confirmed", you must allow for confirmation bottle-necks.

@EvanHarper Efforts to control the pandemic will harm the economy more than the virus itself. In a sense, we are spending wealth in exchange for health (or trying to anyway).

Estimates leverage what we know about probable undetected infections, and that factor just jumped: Acting as a closed population, the cruise ship got some thorough testing and discovered that the infection rate was higher (and mortality rate lower) by a factor of 5 or 6. If I understand correctly, infection estimates are about to be multiplied, and there are many more carriers out there, and there will be much more crypto-transmission. In other words, the...

@DebbySheran wrote:

When everybody becomes very intelligent, we will have zero global catastrophes.

Intelligence /= Wisdom

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So if ML becomes robust, then image CAPTCHA dies, and if image CAPTCHA stays ahead of ML, then ML isn't robust? (Just pointing out that in some cases, the ML is the attacker and the adversarial image is the defense).

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Beware: Stats / forecasts typically give percents of all vehicles, but the question asks FCEV as a percent of electrics. If electrics displace all internal combustion, then I suppose there's no difference, but... YMMV

For a question on written law, instead of media outlets, we should use an official .gov source such as GovInfo, the National Archives, Library of Congress and/or the Federal Register.


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Will the current crisis between India and Pakistan escalate to war?

@Jgalt At this rate, SpaceX's Dragon will serve the ISS before Boeing's 737-Max serves Disneyland.

@(Anthony) My point history cratered on the day the question resolved. The prediction promised one thing but delivered another. These "When will..." questions all use the end date in too many ways -- It's the answer, and it often moves the closing date, and it moves the resolution date. The points end up depending on something like answer-date cubed, but what's displayed throughout the course of waiting is something else entirely, so the display is false and the actual stakes are opaque (and biased because early events are downplayed and late events ar...

@youknowone wrote:

Should I make a question "Will any question in Metaculus will be negatively resolved during its period in 2019?"

How about this one: "Will any question resolution be reversed (e.g. on appeal or late evidence) in 2019?" Count only positive <-> negative, not to or from ambiguous.

The 1918 flu pandemic and WW II each killed about 3% of global population, and those were at least partly offset by growth, so net 10% loss would be mind-blowing. To find such great loss in the past, I had to search back through the Black Death (14th C) and the Plague of Justinian (6th C). I just hope that modern technology does more to forestall such harrowing times than to cause them.

@Nostradamnus The United States has a criminally deficient testing capacity. I just received junk mail from my state rep (Washington) informing me that the state is proud to be able to test 200 people per day, and that he has voted for a plan to increase testing to 400 per day before the end of the year. No wonder the stats are increasing linearly; the testing per day is a linear choke-point :\

@Pshyeah wrote:

Could the Patreon link in the upper right be changed to another colour...

Ooooh... How about a brighter green, and you could make it blink incessantly unless one has contributed within the last year.

I'd like to be able to see a question's proposed closing date while the question is "upcoming". Right now, while upcoming, the question's opening date fills that space. Both dates should be displayed so that the closing date can always be part of the question discussion even if it is not mentioned in the main text.

I was interested in the question right up until I read the totally capricious resolution meta-criterion. It enables us to choose the answer without regard for any reality. That's bullshit!

Be a scholar (or futurist) and come up with some real measure of the human condition for us to bet on (or against).

Incidentally, I see genetic engineering and space colonization as potential fulcra for a sea-change in the human condition.

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