There's a solution to the "can't lose points" side of this question: As its very last act before closing, a doomed Metaculus could resolve this question negatively and spank the predictors who thought they had a one-sided wager ;)
We desperately need new questions about anything other than COVID-19. If we can't think of them, then Metaculus is in danger of becoming the Corona-virus prediction site.
Is there a way to report a bad comment (e.g. a spam advertisement for some off-site product or service)? If not, we need one. If we do, we could use an easier way to see it and use it.
Another factor: Living for 2500 days takes 2500 days (duh!), but that means the breakthrough must have occurred at least 7 years before the resolve date -- long enough to live those days and get published before the deadline.
So if another 9/11 type emergency again prompts the federal government to suspend all US air-travel for 3 days, then this question would resolve positive even while ground and sea exits remain open at US borders and ports?
— edited by Uncle Jeff
What's the timing of the Georgia runoff vis a vis the election of Senate majority leader (this question's criterion)? Will new Georgia senators reach the Senate in time to vote on that?
@notany On the other hand, people are biased toward seeing what they expect to see -- and Trump is priming them to see an incompetent Biden. One or two word-stumbles that might have been brushed off may now be perceived as confirmation of what Trump has been saying (confirmation bias).
@krtnu My probablity mass is on "one or more metacultists already know the answer but are delaying their announcements until Christmas in order to maximize their scores".
@AngraMainyu Indeed... Muskovites measure years by the Martian calendar :o
We need a new question on the national conventions (perhaps one question each). In recent history, the televised "conventions" have been national spectacles giving big bumps to their respective (if not respectable) candidates. Will either or both major US parties cancel? If only one, then which?
More generally, I think that Metaculus needs more science questions, or anything else that isn't political axe grinding.
Like, when will the next magnitude 8+ earthquake strike the Cascadia subduction zone? (or binary, will it happen by 2050?)
Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?
Will Marvel resolve the downer-ending of Infinity War Part 1 by revealing that it happened in the mirror dimension?
@Jgalt Party primaries always cater to the extreme 20% who bother to vote in primaries. Winning nominees then usually flip-flop back toward the center during general elections, and then those winners spend their time in office breaking all of the promises they made in both the primaries and the general campaign.
Now that we're in one, we might shorten the closing date.
Astronomers now doubt there’s a Planet Nine: https://earthsky.org/space/astronomer-doubt-p…
Meticulous deep survey chalks up prior "clustering" to known observational biases.
In the state of Washington (one of the hardest hit) the Dept H says it can only test 100 per day. That effectively caps the reported growth rate in the state because facilities can't grow exponentially like a pandemic.
In other words, when you think on "confirmed", you must allow for confirmation bottle-necks.