There's a solution to the "can't lose points" side of this question: As its very last act before closing, a doomed Metaculus could resolve this question negatively and spank the predictors who thought they had a one-sided wager ;)

We desperately need new questions about anything other than COVID-19. If we can't think of them, then Metaculus is in danger of becoming the Corona-virus prediction site.

Create a "blind entry" phase at the opening of each question during which we can't yet see (and be influenced by) what early entrants have predicted. During the blind phase, all entrants would see the same points available as if they were the first to see the question. The duration of this phase could be preset (e.g. 3 days, or maybe 7 days, or some simple formula like 5% of time from open to close) or you could let the author set the date at which the curtain lifts and the current sense of the community becomes visible to those who want its guidance. ...
I think Trump's "He won" tweet reads as if referring specifically to the vote in PA, not the whole presidential election. Since Trump has not yet given up his legal challenges and recounts, and since he has refused to start transition meetings, he has clearly not yet thrown in the towel. Resolving this question with a 'yes' would be yet another travesty of lawyerly word-twisting that would further undermine confidence in Metaculus (i.e. I must factor in about a 25% chance on all but the most crisp questions that I could get it wrong even in *hindsight* ...

Is there a way to report a bad comment (e.g. a spam advertisement for some off-site product or service)? If not, we need one. If we do, we could use an easier way to see it and use it.

Another factor: Living for 2500 days takes 2500 days (duh!), but that means the breakthrough must have occurred at least 7 years before the resolve date -- long enough to live those days and get published before the deadline.

So if another 9/11 type emergency again prompts the federal government to suspend all US air-travel for 3 days, then this question would resolve positive even while ground and sea exits remain open at US borders and ports?

— edited by Uncle Jeff

What's the timing of the Georgia runoff vis a vis the election of Senate majority leader (this question's criterion)? Will new Georgia senators reach the Senate in time to vote on that?

@notany On the other hand, people are biased toward seeing what they expect to see -- and Trump is priming them to see an incompetent Biden. One or two word-stumbles that might have been brushed off may now be perceived as confirmation of what Trump has been saying (confirmation bias).

@krtnu My probablity mass is on "one or more metacultists already know the answer but are delaying their announcements until Christmas in order to maximize their scores".

@AngraMainyu Indeed... Muskovites measure years by the Martian calendar :o

By resolving early, the "yea" points are biased downward -- Failure to create a space force would necessitate running the full period, but succeeding in creating a space force cuts points short. Those who predicted the president to succeed were penalized for being "more right", which is probably not what you want your point system to do. If you stick to this scoring system, then predictors should always bias their predictions toward the longer-running end of the scale on all such questions. I suggest that instead, the question (or future such questions...
I'd like to request a not-in-my-lifetime domain to house all questions that are almost certain to live longer than we are (barring radical life-extension). Then only Metaculists who are into that sort of question (and dedicated to answering "honestly") would have to deal with them. I suggest that most domains allow read-only access to non-members. This could also allow bots to index more pages in order to draw more traffic to the site. Could domains be used as a speed-bump for newbies, delaying their posting / predicting on hot topics until after they ...

We need a new question on the national conventions (perhaps one question each). In recent history, the televised "conventions" have been national spectacles giving big bumps to their respective (if not respectable) candidates. Will either or both major US parties cancel? If only one, then which?

More generally, I think that Metaculus needs more science questions, or anything else that isn't political axe grinding.

Like, when will the next magnitude 8+ earthquake strike the Cascadia subduction zone? (or binary, will it happen by 2050?)

Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?

Will Marvel resolve the downer-ending of Infinity War Part 1 by revealing that it happened in the mirror dimension?

@Jgalt Party primaries always cater to the extreme 20% who bother to vote in primaries. Winning nominees then usually flip-flop back toward the center during general elections, and then those winners spend their time in office breaking all of the promises they made in both the primaries and the general campaign.

Now that we're in one, we might shorten the closing date.

Astronomers now doubt there’s a Planet Nine:…

Meticulous deep survey chalks up prior "clustering" to known observational biases.

The daily number is artificially volatile due to data-gathering and reporting hiccups (just look at how weekends magically suppress the numbers on a seven-day cycle with the occasional holiday thrown in). That means that one data-recording glitch (such as the Thanksgiving four-day weekend) could create an anomalous number on the next business-as-usual day when all of the data sources play catch-up. Therefore, if you're interested in the pandemic rather than headline value, then you should ask about the 7-day moving average that smooths out the artifacts...

In the state of Washington (one of the hardest hit) the Dept H says it can only test 100 per day. That effectively caps the reported growth rate in the state because facilities can't grow exponentially like a pandemic.

In other words, when you think on "confirmed", you must allow for confirmation bottle-necks.