According to the WHO, there are already 57 deaths due to monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo alone in 2022.

The community currently assigns the chance of total deaths to be 57 or fewer ~20%.

— edited by Trunton

The UN projects 19,093K people aged 100+ by 2100, up from 573K people in 2020.

— edited by Trunton

Will the US CDC change the definition of being “fully vaccinated” against COVID-19 to include an additional dose(s)?

The current definition is:

In general, people are considered fully vaccinated:

2 weeks after their second dose in a 2-dose series, such as the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, or

2 weeks after a single-dose vaccine, such as Johnson & Johnson’s Janssen vaccine

@(ajohnson) In your post, you mention that: >For example, in 2016, AI experts predicted that the game of Go would not be mastered until 2028. Deepmind’s AlphaGo famously beat one of the best Go players, Lee Sedol, in 2016—eight years earlier than predicted. However, this part is likely incorrect, as the authors of the survey define “Go (same training as human)” as: >Defeat the best Go players, training only on as many games as the best Go players have played. For reference, DeepMind’s AlphaGo has probably played a hundred million games of self-play, wh...

When will a major country pass a law written entirely/mostly by an AI?

The Bing model seems to be able to parse the long Morse code, which [previous GPT-3 models]( and ChatGPT can't do. I told ChatGPT with this prompt: >What does this Morse code say?: - .... . / .-.. --- -.-. .- - .. --- -. / --- ..-. / - .... . / . .- .-. - .... --.- ..- .- -.- . / .--. .-.. .- -.-. . ... / .. - / .-- .. - .... .. -. / - .... . / ...- .. -.-. .. -. .. - -.-- / --- ..-. / .- / - .-. .. .--. .-.. . / .--- ..- -. -.-. - .. --- -. / -... . - .-- . . -. / - ......

When will artificial intelligence be mentioned in a major country’s constitution?

@.Matthew_Barnett’s thoughts on the release date of GPT-4:

GPT-3.5 was reportedly finished training in early 2022. Since I estimated that GPT-4 could be trained for up to 12 months, and they likely need to fine-tune and test it, my guess is that we're looking at a release in the early months of 2023, with maybe a median of March.

Will the US sanction China for a reason related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022?

How many U.S. senators will vote to convict Trump?

When will an RNA vaccine not for COVID-19 be approved in the US?

From [the official OpenAI Discord server](, posted yesterday by an OpenAI employee: >Hi @here! We're starting to think about how to monetize ChatGPT (early thinking, nothing official to share yet). Our goal is to continue improving and maintaining the service, and monetization is one way we're considering to ensure its long-term viability. We're interested in chatting with some folks for ~15 min to get some early feedback. If you're interested in chatting, please fill out this form (takes ~10 min to fill out):

@Anthony from WIRED:

Hannah Wong, a spokesperson for OpenAI, says the company spent more than six months working on the safety and alignment of GPT-4 after training the model. She adds that OpenAI is not currently training GPT-5.

I find two things that may change the apparent original intent of this question.

  1. The WHO’s webpage linked to this question’s resolution criteria only says where each variant is first sampled and doesn’t determine the country of origin as the resolution criteria suggest.

  2. Countries with higher-than-average vaccination rates likely have better genomic surveillance capabilities than countries with lower-than-average vaccination rates.

[The Verge: Microsoft thinks AI can beat Google at search — CEO Satya Nadella explains why]( >**[Interviewer:] What was the moment in the development of the product where you said, “Okay, it’s ready. We should announce it like this” — with a pretty direct shot at the 800-pound gorilla [Google]? Was there a light switch that flipped for you? Was it a committee decision? How’d that work?** >[Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella:] So when I first saw this new model… because...
@admins I think this question can now resolve on this date, as [children under the age of 5 are currently not eligible to be vaccinated against Covid]( [CDC Strengthens Recommendations and Expands Eligibility for COVID-19 Booster Shots]( > […] CDC now recommends that children ages 5 through 11 years should receive a booster shot 5 months after their initial Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination series. […]...

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact might be relevant to this question, given the definition of a landslide presidential election.

Am I the only one who can’t view the page of the second question related to a novel?