@PhilippSchoenegger Leaving their transponders on? Does that sound like the movements of a country that pioneered hybrid war to you? Feels very sabre-rattle to me, not an actual indicator or warning for war.

@davidmanheim I agree but what's the end game of an invasion without occupation? You can hardly dominate or reintigrate Ukraine without troops sitting around making sure you comply.

I need some kind of story or course of action analysis to believe that there would be no occupation. And it wouldn't add up without one.