# ThirdEyeOpen Candidacy I've been active on Metaculus since February 2020, and I've left nearly 200 comments on various questions. I'm particularly interested in helping ensure Metaculus questions are of a high quality, are unambiguous wherever possible, are easily understandable and legible even at a quick glance, and are consistent with other similar Metaculus questions whenever it's reasonable. If you look at my comment history, you will see that I've always strived to do this throughout my engagement with Metaculus, since this enables everybody to ...

For the record, the probability I assign to an AI-written book being on the list is a good bit higher than the probability of it being written by a language model specifically. I would personally prefer if this question asked about AI in general, and not limit positive resolution to books written by language models

— edited by ThirdEyeOpen

There's a very bad taste in my mouth about Cade Metz. Many people are saying that he seems like a well-intentioned reporter, but this strongly conflicts with the data I've seen- but I also wouldn't be surprised if this was because of a filtering effect. User Iamnotanagent posted a link to an old article (https://www.theregister.com/2008/12/18/zoophilia_wikiscandal/) written by Metz - it's clear evidence of a mind that works not with facts, but a mind that's drawn to controversy the way a shark is drawn to blood. Then there's the situation with Metz bei...

@randallburns While I am not a fan of McConnell, your usage of unsober phrasing such as "Moscow Mitch" on Metaculus makes me give less credence to your words - both here and elsewhere on the site.

@2e10e122 I'm not sure, but it sounds like this won't go to the surface, which is required for positive resolution

Some thoughts on timeline for SpaceX specifically: [Metaculus expects Starship to first reach orbit early next year (March 2022)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/), which gives 2 3/4 years to bring humans to the moon. SpaceX says they will not put humans on Starship until after "hundreds of missions"- which I will take to mean at least 100, and less than 1,000 successful launches. Falcon 9 has flown 107 missions over a decade, but 26 of these were in the year 2020. At the rate of 26 missions per year, Starship woul...
As Sylvain mentioned, community moderators are volunteers, and there are no high expectations for time commitment. There are far more pending questions than the current moderator team has time & energy to put into approving & improving questions, which has been causing some frustration for some users, and since we want as many high-quality questions here as possible, having more moderators will be helpful, even if they are only contributing a little bit of their time every now and then. I don't spend a lot of time moderating here, maybe a few hours two ...
@(PinkGrowl) As a LessWrong user who was paying attention to the Petrov Day excercises both last year and this year, I am strongly of the opinion that this should count. While the setup was slightly different due to the EAF crossover, the presentation and the broad outline of the messaging were the same. This is the third time in a row that LW has done the button ritual for Petrov Day, and it is a bit of a tradition there, and this event was clearly continuing the tradition. While the number of codes is not the same as last year, neither were the number...

@amit.levy49 I predicted a little lower, just in case of some huge global catastrophe. Also, it's not 2150 tech that matters for this question, but tech between around 2080 and 2120 that matters most. I'm still very optimistic about this.

If enough states ratify the NaPoVoInterCo, but it gets overturned by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional, should this resolve positively or negatively? Based on what Matthew_Barnett said below, that suggests it'd be a positive resolution, but to me that feels like stretching the definition of "going into effect"

Why does my UI keep switching to light mode? It's ugly and it annoys me that it keeps turning back on. (This usually happens when I'm logged on Metaculus on one of my secondary devices after not having used it on that device for a few days)

The top score is now 0.803 (19.7% solved). While it is conceivable that things can still resolve negatively, it is now much more likely that this will resolve positively

@devetec Huh? But GPT-3 was able to infer it without images. I'd say this line:

I haven't seen any rabbits anywhere. I would not eat a rabbit. Don't ask me any more questions.

Is more than enough; the images are just a cherry on top

— edited by ThirdEyeOpen

Elon on Twitter:

If all goes well, Starship will be ready for its first orbital launch attempt next month, pending regulatory approval

I don't have a stake in this, since I haven't predicted, but it's very silly that correct predictors have earned only a measly few points

@xc Remember, the last report was in 2019. While that wasn't very long ago, the situation in Hong Kong has changed drastically recently, so it's not necessarily surprising to see Hong Kong ranked higher than you'd expect

@jipkin I certainly hope it will still exist

— edited by ThirdEyeOpen

@Jgalt If this happened between the time the question was approved, and when it went live fit predictions, resolving ambiguous seems justified, since there's no meaningful predictions to be made here

I think one closely related question that I'd be interested in is if the wolfram physics project produces a model which leads to a falsifiable hypothesis beyond our current models, that later gets confirmed at a p-value below 0.01%

— edited by ThirdEyeOpen