# ThirdEyeOpen Candidacy I've been active on Metaculus since February 2020, and I've left nearly 200 comments on various questions. I'm particularly interested in helping ensure Metaculus questions are of a high quality, are unambiguous wherever possible, are easily understandable and legible even at a quick glance, and are consistent with other similar Metaculus questions whenever it's reasonable. If you look at my comment history, you will see that I've always strived to do this throughout my engagement with Metaculus, since this enables everybody to ...

For the record, the probability I assign to an AI-written book being on the list is a good bit higher than the probability of it being written by a language model specifically. I would personally prefer if this question asked about AI in general, and not limit positive resolution to books written by language models

— edited by ThirdEyeOpen

There's a very bad taste in my mouth about Cade Metz. Many people are saying that he seems like a well-intentioned reporter, but this strongly conflicts with the data I've seen- but I also wouldn't be surprised if this was because of a filtering effect. User Iamnotanagent posted a link to an old article (https://www.theregister.com/2008/12/18/zoophilia_wikiscandal/) written by Metz - it's clear evidence of a mind that works not with facts, but a mind that's drawn to controversy the way a shark is drawn to blood. Then there's the situation with Metz bei...

@randallburns While I am not a fan of McConnell, your usage of unsober phrasing such as "Moscow Mitch" on Metaculus makes me give less credence to your words - both here and elsewhere on the site.

@2e10e122 I'm not sure, but it sounds like this won't go to the surface, which is required for positive resolution

Some thoughts on timeline for SpaceX specifically: [Metaculus expects Starship to first reach orbit early next year (March 2022)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/), which gives 2 3/4 years to bring humans to the moon. SpaceX says they will not put humans on Starship until after "hundreds of missions"- which I will take to mean at least 100, and less than 1,000 successful launches. Falcon 9 has flown 107 missions over a decade, but 26 of these were in the year 2020. At the rate of 26 missions per year, Starship woul...

If enough states ratify the NaPoVoInterCo, but it gets overturned by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional, should this resolve positively or negatively? Based on what Matthew_Barnett said below, that suggests it'd be a positive resolution, but to me that feels like stretching the definition of "going into effect"

Why does my UI keep switching to light mode? It's ugly and it annoys me that it keeps turning back on. (This usually happens when I'm logged on Metaculus on one of my secondary devices after not having used it on that device for a few days)

The top score is now 0.803 (19.7% solved). While it is conceivable that things can still resolve negatively, it is now much more likely that this will resolve positively

@devetec Huh? But GPT-3 was able to infer it without images. I'd say this line:

I haven't seen any rabbits anywhere. I would not eat a rabbit. Don't ask me any more questions.

Is more than enough; the images are just a cherry on top

— edited by ThirdEyeOpen

I don't have a stake in this, since I haven't predicted, but it's very silly that correct predictors have earned only a measly few points

@xc Remember, the last report was in 2019. While that wasn't very long ago, the situation in Hong Kong has changed drastically recently, so it's not necessarily surprising to see Hong Kong ranked higher than you'd expect

I think one closely related question that I'd be interested in is if the wolfram physics project produces a model which leads to a falsifiable hypothesis beyond our current models, that later gets confirmed at a p-value below 0.01%

— edited by ThirdEyeOpen

Just to confirm: this does not require attempting to actually land on Venus, right? A simple flyby (similar to the upcoming DearMoon flight) should be sufficient for positive resolution? Judging by the text of the question, this is correct, and I assume this is Jgalt's intention, I just want to confirm this.

@Jgalt I always appreciate all the effort you put in to share links and information, thanks for the consistent contributions!

I'm noticing that there's more predictions on this question than on this related question asking when Starship will land properly. If you haven't had a chance to predict on that one yet, get your predictions in!

I won't campaign to change this resolution, but in the future, I think it would make sense to flip a coin in the case of more than one colour, as was proposed previously. I will also belatedly note that wavelength is poorly defined in the case of purples and magentas, so I would hope to see hue (which is well-defined for all colours) used next time

Congratulations @michal_dubrawski! Thank you to the Metaculus team and the Metaculus community for providing this opportunity and for entrusting me with this position. I look forward to serving alongside Michal and the rest of the moderation team to help keep Metaculus the amazing bastion of rational judgement and constructive communication on the Internet that it is.

@nagolinc America is closer and more livable than Mars, but 1600's Europe also commanded 1,000x less energy (and thereby resources) than the modern world