I've compiled an average of about 30 presidential forecasts (plus Senate and House forecasts). It's currently sitting at roughly 78% Biden, 22% Trump.

Just want to point out that neither the phrase "brain emulation" nor "artificial general intelligence" is present anywhere in the question—just "em" and "AGI". Much of the Metaculus crowd will know what is meant by those abbreviations, but not all, and I think it's important that questions are accessible to new users.

There are basically two options here: Either a new song takes the world completely by storm, or an existing top song gets to 4 billion by sheer(an) attrition. Either way, it will take a while. Some extreme examples to illustrate: * The #1 song, Ed Sheeran's **"Shape of You",** has had 2.927B streams in the 1,729 days since its release. That's an average of 1,693,000 streams a day. If it continued at that rate (a very bold assumption, since like virtually any song its popularity has decreased over time), it would take 635 days to reach 4B: June 28, 2023....

@fianxu Thanks!

Well, there you have it, folks: The power of Just Asking™.

Community update reminder! About 35% of the community's probability mass is now on dates that have passed.

Tagging @admins; this resolves as August 23. FDA Approves First COVID-19 Vaccine:

Today, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the first COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine has been known as the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, and will now be marketed as Comirnaty (koe-mir’-na-tee), for the prevention of COVID-19 disease in individuals 16 years of age and older.

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Is that report one that the FIA has published in years past? I can't find any prior reports, so I can't help but suspect that the most likely way this resolves negatively is that they don't provide updated figures.

@juancambeiro Oof. I watched this like a hawk and it still blew right past me. Doesn't help that the previous week has now been revised upward from 2.9% to 12.6%.

According to their FAQ, the GSS is only conducted in even numbered years. So, just to clarify, is this question asking about the 2026 survey, or...?

I think the probability of our first alien life encounter being carbon-based is greater than the probability of any randomly selected alien species being carbon-based, because we're more likely to realize it's alive if it's more like us.

The "cloud of interstellar stuff" mentioned in the question is a good example: Even if we (quite rudely) flew right through one, we still might not realize what it was.

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@EvanHarper @juancambeiro Given how drastically last week's were revised (again, from 2.9% to 12.6%!), they're definitely far from stable.

Not sure if it might make sense to re-resolve in a week once the data has settled. I doubt it would drop below 50%, but their confidence interval does go all the way down to 34%, so it's possible. At the very least we should keep an eye on it.

U.S. medals for the past 15 years:

Year # Golds # Silvers # Bronzes
2007 2 3 1
2008 4 2 0
2009 2 4 0
2010 3 3 0
2011 6 0 0
2012 5 1 0
2013 4 2 0
2014 5 1 0
2015 5 1 0
2016 6 0 0
2017 3 3 0
2018 5 1 0
2019 6 0 0
2020 3 3 0
2021 4 2 0

68% of Virginians now have at least one dose. Note that this question will retroactively close when that number reaches 70%!

When we reach the 75% mark seems like it depends heavily on when vaccines are available for 5-11 year olds, which will probably be within the next few months.

Note that the resolution criterion links to the 7-day average as of Nov. 18. Here's the general link that displays the most recent average.

My average of 22 Senate forecasts currently puts odds of GOP control of the Senate at 38%.

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Per Blue Origin's website, the highest bid is now $4M—already increased from yesterday's $3.8M.

The VDH page seems to have stabilized with the higher values now. 18–24s are at 53.1% fully vaccinated, increasing steadily but noticeably more slowly than the 12–15s.

I'm always intimidated by questions like these, but here a couple of videos that provide pretty accessible introductions to the topic: