I'm impressed by how prescient this question was.

This comment was moved from Will Ukraine ban wheat export before April 2023? to this question group. Learn more about Question groups

They write:

We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.

This seems like an odd choice of words, since laboratory accidents aren't generally conspiracies.

I'd perhaps like the feature where one could assign units to numerical values in numerical-range questions -- perhaps just % and $. Some examples: - [What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/) I'd prefer 2x10^(-3) to be displayed as 0.2% - [What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record...

FWIW I'm up for keeping this open for another decade or so.

But what if Bloomberg also manipulates this question???

Scott is back. Also:

I got emails from two different prediction aggregators saying they would show they cared by opening markets into whether the Times would end up doxxing me or not. One of them ended up with a total trade volume in the four digits. For a brief moment, I probably had more advanced decision-making technology advising me in my stupid conflict with a newspaper than the CIA uses for some wars. I am humbled by their support.

I think I'm above the community prediction on this one because I'm more strongly anchored to a high prior informed by base rates. In particular, I think the base rate for turning a working demo into a $1bn product suite (even at a large well-functioning organisation) is likely well under 10%.

Details about the reasoning of others is a valuable public good that is often under-provided, but especially so in the context of a competitive forecasting tournament. Hence, we’ve decided to include a small tweak to the contest rules—for each round, **you’ll need to comment to share your reasoning on at least 3 occasions over the course of that round.** Comments should explain the reasoning behind your forecasts or significant updates. We hope that this slight tweak will help generate more value for all involved. Any comment will suffice, though we ...
I have just updated this page using the most recent predictions on all questions in the Ragnarök series. This might be especially interesting given that the number of predictions have nearly doubled since the previous time it was evaluated, and since we've recently implemented a much-improved Metaculus Prediction. I also cross-posted these results to [the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/27aXsJRRAoNZFw9K3/some-global-catastrophic-risk-estimates). For reference, this is the previous table, evaluated at Oct 14, 2019 with around 1000 pre...

For weeks 4 to 6, Metaculus-themed water bottles will be awarded to the top 15 forecasters! These will probably look like this:

IMG_0011

Thanks!

Are there any objections to resolving this at 20:30 EST?

@(Eharding) You've recently made many single-line comments that to me don't seem to be informative (and I guess others don't think so either judging by the net downvotes). I therefore want to point you to our [Community Guidelines](https://www.metaculus.com/question-writing/), particularly the section on non-informative comments and spam: > Aim for high-quality, useful and informative content. It’s greatly appreciated when participants contribute to the discussion at hand. Disruptive comments, derailing, or spam aren’t welcome. If you record thoughts o...

Kudos to @juancambeiro for anticipating in April (when we knew little about efficacy rates of possible SARS-CoV-2 vaccines) that adding a 75% efficacy threshold would make for a really useful and interesting question.

@(RyanBeck) This is a great question. I think both styles (i.e. both the type that argues for a particular view that departs from the community and the type that is focused on what the community says, and what that implies) could be valuable. I recently wrote an analysis of the second type on what forecasters think about Global Catastrophic Risks (see [here](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/8736/a-global-catastrophe-this-century/)), in which I focus exclusively on the others' forecasts. I do have the intuition that, given that aggregating forecasts i...

@sirshred

The stock price should roughly reflect fair value, not something like the most likely lowest price reached over a time-frame. It doesn't even need to equal the most likely price over some time frame. For illustration, consider the case in which the price is the expected price of the asset at some future period, with a probability distribution that is asymmetric so that the median price is below expected price. In this case market price > most likely observed price.

@(Jgalt) Thanks for your feedback. To avoid spurious resolutions (i.e. edge-case resolutions that technically satisfy the description as written, yet fail to capture the intention of the question) I think the deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for mining, engineering, or other civilian and non-offensive purposes shouldn't trigger negative resolution. I suppose scenarios of nuclear detonations in space (for mining or deflecting asteroids, terraforming, nuclear pulse propulsion, etc.) should be considered as detonations that are for non-...
@(Vincitvincimus) I'd just like to remind you that Metaculus is a platform for making quantitative predictions. Although qualitative or opinion-based analyses can often inform one about these probabilities, it might be more useful for others to post comments that are both mostly factual and likely to change one's beliefs and predictions in a determinate way (e.g. information that is new, unexpected, original, and if possible, quantitive). Perhaps it's worth repeating an excellent [comment by @gjm](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be...