I'd like to be able to 'favourite' questions, which would serve as a way to bookmark some of the questions whose predictions I'm closely following, and which I can then (somehow) easily find.

If you read the FAQ closely, you'll find a commitment to resolve all questions:

Currently, all questions will be resolved.

Thus, given that this question resolves on Dec 31, 9999, our commitment requires that the last resolution takes place no earlier than Dec 31, 9999.


A new administration will be inaugurated on January 20th. My focus now turns to ensuring a smooth, orderly, and seamless transition of power.

It now seems clear that he has accepted that he will not legally be President on 2021-01-21. Resolved positively.

Distribution calculators and graphs, such as this interactive tool https://www.desmos.com/calculator/3rrikjivzt. You can choose between three distributions (normal, binomial and geometric), edit the values for the mean, variance, probability of success (depending on the distribution), and it shows you the PDF.

For instance, if you think that SpaceX's rocket has a 50% success rate of landing successfully on Mars, if they try 3 times you can see that the expected number of landings is 1.5, the probability of at least 1 landing is 0.875.

Max Roser's Our World In Data (https://ourworldindata.org/) is outstanding for important long term macro-level trends. You can also download data as a csv file to excel and run regressions.

— edited by TamayBesiroglu

Hubei province has a population of 58.5M, and so is less populous than some neighbouring provinces, such as Henan (94M), Hunan (67.37M) and Anhui (62M). It also has a lower population density (at 310/km2) compared to the previous three provinces (570/km2, 320/km2, 440/km2 respectively). Moreover, the most populous province in China, Guangdong (113.46M, density 540 p/km2), currently has the second-largest number of confirmed cases. If the outbreak tips into something that is not feasibly controlled by quarantining all relevant cities, it seems more l...

The predictions here seem inconsistent to the predictions on GWP growth to exceed 10%. For world output to double within 4 years, you'd need to have an average growth rate of around 19%. However, according to the community prediction on the linked question, there's only a 16% chance of the growth rate exceeding 10% by 2050.

Seems fun! We should definitely hold all pundits accountable, human or otherwise.

@casens I'm curious to hear whether you still endorse this prediction -- and if so, why?

Is there any appetite for re-running this question for $4 trillion market cap?

I think it's worth getting periodic feedback on how accurately we're predicting the outbreak.

Out of 20 votes we have - 10 votes for "launch new question with [10M-8B range], set existing two to close in ONE week" - 4 votes for "launch new question with [10M-8B range], set existing two to close in TWO weeks" - 4 voters indicated they were lizard people - 1 vote for "Keep existing two open, don't launch a single question with [10M-8B range]" - 1 vote for "Launch new question with [10M-8B range], set existing two to close in FOUR weeks" I'm inclined to opt for the choice made by the majority and launch new question with [10M-8B range], and se...
I think my number one feature request is some rework of continuous questions that permits users to select a custom range and change this at any time when the question is open. Here's my proposal for such a scheme: - Question writers set a “suggested range”, which is the range over which predictions are initially displayed and inputted - Users can adjust the range that is displayed for them to their liking, and lock this in for themselves until they decide to change this - Admins and moderators can update the “suggested range“ without affecting the pred...
I looked at the frequency of year-on-year changes since 1973 in the number of non-free countries, weighted the frequency as \begin{align} \sqrt[4]{(y_i-1972)}, \end{align} to give recent values a higher weighting. I fitted these values onto a normal distribution in R, and then modelled my forecast <a href="https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/11505">here</a>. Given a small sample and low R^2 of the distribution, I extended my error bars by 1 in each direction. Possible error in my reasoning: year on year changes in the number of Not Free countries is...
@(YasmineBose) Note that we have [rules](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/) against questions about the mortality of individual people. > Questions should never aim to predict mortality of individual people or even small groups. In cases of public interest (such as court appointees and political figures), the question should be phrased in other more directly relevant terms such as "when will X no longer serve on the court" or "will Y be unable to run for office on date X". When the topic is death (or longevity) itself questions should treat people in ...

New SOTA alert—very considerate of DeepMind to keep their work in line with the question's closing date. @predictors, it's probably wise to update :)

As I understand it, when the UK leaves the EU the plan is that the transitional period will apply (during which time the UK and EU will effectively continue to operate under Single Market rules) until the end of December 2020 at least. Only without a withdrawal agreement in place will there be no transition period and a so-called “no-deal” Brexit will take place. I think the scenario in which the UK leaves the EU as outlined in the negotiated withdrawal agreement (which includes a transitional period), the question should resolve positive. My suggestion ...

On the other hand, I think that covid policies with the optimal risk-taking might sometimes look a little crazy.

@Matthew_Barnett I'd be interested to have the outcome of your bet with Robin Hanson written up as a question (and perhaps appended to your essay.)