IBM casts doubt on Google's quantum supremacy by simulating the same result using a classical supercomputer in 2.5 days rather than 10,000 years ([article]( > Recent advances in quantum computing have resulted in two 53-qubit processors: one from our group in IBM and a device described in the leaked preprint from Google. In the preprint, it is argued that their device reached “quantum supremacy” and that “a state-of-the-art supercomputer would require approximately 10,000 years to perform...
@(notany) Sorry to hear this. We tried our best to have as compelling questions as possible. This is in some cases difficult in light of the many constraints that need to be satisfied (such as the fact that authoritative sources should be expected to be available, and also that—at least for this round—the questions would need to resolve precisely in 6 months). We also wanted to feature many of the same metrics across the various rounds, so that users would accrue track records on the first round that would be informative about their ability to predict...

Hi @Auspuang. Welcome to Metaculus. The Metaculus platform is dedicated to forecasting. Its purpose is not hosting discussions of policy proposals.

Okay @EmanueleAscani, we can experiment with some meme-questions. I'll go on a limb and set this live.

It's nice to see Metaculites betting on their beliefs. Kudos @Mark_Xu @nhuvelle.

@Uncle Jeff I should say that the implication that Sylvain is less than capable is disrespectful. I urge you to refrain from posting comments that are rude in any way to Metaculus users or moderators.


but I would welcome some kind of notifier or inbox feature on the site itself where you can see replies in threads you've posted in

This might just be in the works :)

Updating on this thread by Trevor Bedford

With data that has emerged in the last week, I'm now 80-90% convinced that infections by the UK variant virus (Pangolin lineage B.1.1.7, @nextstrain clade 20B/501Y.V1) result in, on average, more onward infections, ie are more transmissible.

Badges for top-10/20/50 predictors so that their comments stand out, and receive recognition for topping the leaderboards :)

A base rate naively extracted from all previous PM tenures suggests that he'll last 4.5 years if he's a single term PM.

Hereby pre-committing to analyse the results at a total of 3,500 combined predictions.

@johnnycaffeine The projected day high in Kyiv over the next two weeks is expected to below freezing each day except tomorrow, so I suspect it'll be frozen.

Perhaps someone should write a questions about the causalty estimates, conditional on this question resolving positively...

In the [2019 report](, China's aggregate score has dropped to 11 points from 14 in 2018. It now gets -1 for Political Rights and 12 for Civil Liberties. According to Freedom House, the decline in Political Rights score is due to intensified government efforts to break down the ethnic and religious identities and control the overall numbers of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang. Moreover, Freedom House lowered China's Civil Liberty score because of efforts to eliminate the avenues for circumventing cens...

Anyone interested in the same question but for petaflop-days instead of paramater count?

I'm impressed by how prescient this question was.

They write:

We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.

This seems like an odd choice of words, since laboratory accidents aren't generally conspiracies.

I'd perhaps like the feature where one could assign units to numerical values in numerical-range questions -- perhaps just % and $. Some examples: - [What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?]( I'd prefer 2x10^(-3) to be displayed as 0.2% - [What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record...