A base rate naively extracted from all previous PM tenures suggests that he'll last 4.5 years if he's a single term PM.

In the [2019 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2019/china), China's aggregate score has dropped to 11 points from 14 in 2018. It now gets -1 for Political Rights and 12 for Civil Liberties. According to Freedom House, the decline in Political Rights score is due to intensified government efforts to break down the ethnic and religious identities and control the overall numbers of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang. Moreover, Freedom House lowered China's Civil Liberty score because of efforts to eliminate the avenues for circumventing cens...

They write:

We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.

This seems like an odd choice of words, since laboratory accidents aren't generally conspiracies.

I'd perhaps like the feature where one could assign units to numerical values in numerical-range questions -- perhaps just % and $. Some examples: - [What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/) I'd prefer 2x10^(-3) to be displayed as 0.2% - [What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record...

FWIW I'm up for keeping this open for another decade or so.

But what if Bloomberg also manipulates this question???

Scott is back. Also:

I got emails from two different prediction aggregators saying they would show they cared by opening markets into whether the Times would end up doxxing me or not. One of them ended up with a total trade volume in the four digits. For a brief moment, I probably had more advanced decision-making technology advising me in my stupid conflict with a newspaper than the CIA uses for some wars. I am humbled by their support.

I think I'm above the community prediction on this one because I'm more strongly anchored to a high prior informed by base rates. In particular, I think the base rate for turning a working demo into a $1bn product suite (even at a large well-functioning organisation) is likely well under 10%.

Details about the reasoning of others is a valuable public good that is often under-provided, but especially so in the context of a competitive forecasting tournament. Hence, we’ve decided to include a small tweak to the contest rules—for each round, **you’ll need to comment to share your reasoning on at least 3 occasions over the course of that round.** Comments should explain the reasoning behind your forecasts or significant updates. We hope that this slight tweak will help generate more value for all involved. Any comment will suffice, though we ...
I have just updated this page using the most recent predictions on all questions in the Ragnarök series. This might be especially interesting given that the number of predictions have nearly doubled since the previous time it was evaluated, and since we've recently implemented a much-improved Metaculus Prediction. I also cross-posted these results to [the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/27aXsJRRAoNZFw9K3/some-global-catastrophic-risk-estimates). For reference, this is the previous table, evaluated at Oct 14, 2019 with around 1000 pre...

For weeks 4 to 6, Metaculus-themed water bottles will be awarded to the top 15 forecasters! These will probably look like this:



Are there any objections to resolving this at 20:30 EST?

Kudos to @juancambeiro for anticipating in April (when we knew little about efficacy rates of possible SARS-CoV-2 vaccines) that adding a 75% efficacy threshold would make for a really useful and interesting question.


The stock price should roughly reflect fair value, not something like the most likely lowest price reached over a time-frame. It doesn't even need to equal the most likely price over some time frame. For illustration, consider the case in which the price is the expected price of the asset at some future period, with a probability distribution that is asymmetric so that the median price is below expected price. In this case market price > most likely observed price.

@(Vincitvincimus) I'd just like to remind you that Metaculus is a platform for making quantitative predictions. Although qualitative or opinion-based analyses can often inform one about these probabilities, it might be more useful for others to post comments that are both mostly factual and likely to change one's beliefs and predictions in a determinate way (e.g. information that is new, unexpected, original, and if possible, quantitive). Perhaps it's worth repeating an excellent [comment by @gjm](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be...

I'd like to be able to 'favourite' questions, which would serve as a way to bookmark some of the questions whose predictions I'm closely following, and which I can then (somehow) easily find.

If you read the FAQ closely, you'll find a commitment to resolve all questions:

Currently, all questions will be resolved.

Thus, given that this question resolves on Dec 31, 9999, our commitment requires that the last resolution takes place no earlier than Dec 31, 9999.


A new administration will be inaugurated on January 20th. My focus now turns to ensuring a smooth, orderly, and seamless transition of power.

It now seems clear that he has accepted that he will not legally be President on 2021-01-21. Resolved positively.