Hi @Auspuang. Welcome to Metaculus. The Metaculus platform is dedicated to forecasting. Its purpose is not hosting discussions of policy proposals.
Okay @EmanueleAscani, we can experiment with some meme-questions. I'll go on a limb and set this live.
@Uncle Jeff I should say that the implication that Sylvain is less than capable is disrespectful. I urge you to refrain from posting comments that are rude in any way to Metaculus users or moderators.
@PabloStafforini Done.
but I would welcome some kind of notifier or inbox feature on the site itself where you can see replies in threads you've posted in
This might just be in the works :)
Updating on this thread by Trevor Bedford
With data that has emerged in the last week, I'm now 80-90% convinced that infections by the UK variant virus (Pangolin lineage B.1.1.7, @nextstrain clade 20B/501Y.V1) result in, on average, more onward infections, ie are more transmissible.
Badges for top-10/20/50 predictors so that their comments stand out, and receive recognition for topping the leaderboards :)
A base rate naively extracted from all previous PM tenures suggests that he'll last 4.5 years if he's a single term PM.
Hereby pre-committing to analyse the results at a total of 3,500 combined predictions.
@johnnycaffeine The projected day high in Kyiv over the next two weeks is expected to below freezing each day except tomorrow, so I suspect it'll be frozen.
Perhaps someone should write a questions about the causalty estimates, conditional on this question resolving positively...
Anyone interested in the same question but for petaflop-days instead of paramater count?
It seems that this resolves positively.
I'm impressed by how prescient this question was.
They write:
We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.
This seems like an odd choice of words, since laboratory accidents aren't generally conspiracies.