A base rate naively extracted from all previous PM tenures suggests that he'll last 4.5 years if he's a single term PM.
It seems that this resolves positively.
We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin.
This seems like an odd choice of words, since laboratory accidents aren't generally conspiracies.
FWIW I'm up for keeping this open for another decade or so.
But what if Bloomberg also manipulates this question???
Scott is back. Also:
I got emails from two different prediction aggregators saying they would show they cared by opening markets into whether the Times would end up doxxing me or not. One of them ended up with a total trade volume in the four digits. For a brief moment, I probably had more advanced decision-making technology advising me in my stupid conflict with a newspaper than the CIA uses for some wars. I am humbled by their support.
I think I'm above the community prediction on this one because I'm more strongly anchored to a high prior informed by base rates. In particular, I think the base rate for turning a working demo into a $1bn product suite (even at a large well-functioning organisation) is likely well under 10%.
Are there any objections to resolving this at 20:30 EST?
Kudos to @juancambeiro for anticipating in April (when we knew little about efficacy rates of possible SARS-CoV-2 vaccines) that adding a 75% efficacy threshold would make for a really useful and interesting question.
@Natalia_Mendonca This is defineltey amongst the top 3 transhumanist questions on the site :)
The stock price should roughly reflect fair value, not something like the most likely lowest price reached over a time-frame. It doesn't even need to equal the most likely price over some time frame. For illustration, consider the case in which the price is the expected price of the asset at some future period, with a probability distribution that is asymmetric so that the median price is below expected price. In this case market price > most likely observed price.
I'd like to be able to 'favourite' questions, which would serve as a way to bookmark some of the questions whose predictions I'm closely following, and which I can then (somehow) easily find.
A new administration will be inaugurated on January 20th. My focus now turns to ensuring a smooth, orderly, and seamless transition of power.
It now seems clear that he has accepted that he will not legally be President on 2021-01-21. Resolved positively.