Here’s a link to the dedicated [prediction resources]( page. The page has been updated since it was first introduced. It includes a list of [analysis tools](, [free forecasting textbooks, a forecasting tutorial](, a list of tips on [how to become a better predictor](, and a [small repository of relevant data sourc...

@mattaway64 Perhaps that's not a great idea. The question specifies:

For the purpose of this question, only Metaculus accounts created prior to this question's opening date count.

And I'm afraid your account was created after the question opened.

I've created this Sheet so that you can more easily find all the metric-timeframe combinations for all the questions in the tournament. This might be helpful to cross-reference predictions for the same metrics for different time-frames, to check for consistency, and so forth.

I've set the close date to March to make the scoring more incentive compatible, and so that forecasters receive more points in case this resolves soon. Enjoy your tendies!

Last chance to report a positive test result, @predictors. If you want to report it in private, you can find mods on discord or my email on my profile.


Not taking a moral stance here, just a prediction.

This disclaimer is not needed on Metaculus :), a British news website, references these predictions in an opinion piece:

The coronavirus outbreak is a disaster in its own right; the death toll could very easily reach the millions. The forecasting site Metaculus, which crowdsources predictions for wisdom-of-the-crowds purposes, has a median estimate of 2.1 million deaths by 2021; its 95% certainty intervals are 210,000 and 27 million. This really could be the most dangerous pandemic in at least 100 years.

According to this list, the GeForce RTX 2070 Super (launched July 9th, 2019) has a peak performance of 72.5 tensor TFLOPS, and costs $499. This sets the cost, on this question's methodology, at an astounding per TFLOPS. That's roughly a 75% price reduction in cost in just under a year relative to the NVIDIA TITAN V. At that rate we should get to the $1 per TFLOP in around 3 years?

Hey @(Lorxus), @Jotto, @A_Guy, and @HadiKhan. We looked into the issue and we found that there was a bug that was causing the achievement not be awarded to more than one person per question. This is what explained it not being awarded in many instances were the achievement should have been awarded. Sorry about this, the bug has now been fixed. The way it’s supposed to work is by looking at the ratio of the final probability that you assigned to the outcome compared to the probability that the community assigns to the outcome. If that ratio is greater th...
We’re excited to announce the winners for the Analyst and Question-developer awards for the contributions made over the February 17th till March 2nd period on COVID-19 related questions. # Question-developer awards: - First prize: @(ignorance.prior) — $150 - Second prize: @(AABoyles) — $100 - Third prize: @(Jgalt) — $50 # Analyst awards: For the analyst awards, we decided on a tie for second place. As a result, we (the judges) decided on a four-way split, rather than the split that we had initially planned. - First prize: @(AABoyles) — $125 - Secon...
IBM casts doubt on Google's quantum supremacy by simulating the same result using a classical supercomputer in 2.5 days rather than 10,000 years ([article]( > Recent advances in quantum computing have resulted in two 53-qubit processors: one from our group in IBM and a device described in the leaked preprint from Google. In the preprint, it is argued that their device reached “quantum supremacy” and that “a state-of-the-art supercomputer would require approximately 10,000 years to perform...
@(notany) Sorry to hear this. We tried our best to have as compelling questions as possible. This is in some cases difficult in light of the many constraints that need to be satisfied (such as the fact that authoritative sources should be expected to be available, and also that—at least for this round—the questions would need to resolve precisely in 6 months). We also wanted to feature many of the same metrics across the various rounds, so that users would accrue track records on the first round that would be informative about their ability to predict...

Hi @Auspuang. Welcome to Metaculus. The Metaculus platform is dedicated to forecasting. Its purpose is not hosting discussions of policy proposals.

Okay @EmanueleAscani, we can experiment with some meme-questions. I'll go on a limb and set this live.

It's nice to see Metaculites betting on their beliefs. Kudos @Mark_Xu @nhuvelle.

@Uncle Jeff I should say that the implication that Sylvain is less than capable is disrespectful. I urge you to refrain from posting comments that are rude in any way to Metaculus users or moderators.


but I would welcome some kind of notifier or inbox feature on the site itself where you can see replies in threads you've posted in

This might just be in the works :)

Updating on this thread by Trevor Bedford

With data that has emerged in the last week, I'm now 80-90% convinced that infections by the UK variant virus (Pangolin lineage B.1.1.7, @nextstrain clade 20B/501Y.V1) result in, on average, more onward infections, ie are more transmissible.