@mattaway64 Perhaps that's not a great idea. The question specifies:
For the purpose of this question, only Metaculus accounts created prior to this question's opening date count.
And I'm afraid your account was created after the question opened.
I've created this Sheet so that you can more easily find all the metric-timeframe combinations for all the questions in the tournament. This might be helpful to cross-reference predictions for the same metrics for different time-frames, to check for consistency, and so forth.
I've set the close date to March to make the scoring more incentive compatible, and so that forecasters receive more points in case this resolves soon. Enjoy your tendies!
Not taking a moral stance here, just a prediction.
This disclaimer is not needed on Metaculus :)
The coronavirus outbreak is a disaster in its own right; the death toll could very easily reach the millions. The forecasting site Metaculus, which crowdsources predictions for wisdom-of-the-crowds purposes, has a median estimate of 2.1 million deaths by 2021; its 95% certainty intervals are 210,000 and 27 million. This really could be the most dangerous pandemic in at least 100 years.
According to this list, the GeForce RTX 2070 Super (launched July 9th, 2019) has a peak performance of 72.5 tensor TFLOPS, and costs $499. This sets the cost, on this question's methodology, at an astounding per TFLOPS. That's roughly a 75% price reduction in cost in just under a year relative to the NVIDIA TITAN V. At that rate we should get to the $1 per TFLOP in around 3 years?
Hi @Auspuang. Welcome to Metaculus. The Metaculus platform is dedicated to forecasting. Its purpose is not hosting discussions of policy proposals.
Okay @EmanueleAscani, we can experiment with some meme-questions. I'll go on a limb and set this live.
@Uncle Jeff I should say that the implication that Sylvain is less than capable is disrespectful. I urge you to refrain from posting comments that are rude in any way to Metaculus users or moderators.
but I would welcome some kind of notifier or inbox feature on the site itself where you can see replies in threads you've posted in
This might just be in the works :)
Updating on this thread by Trevor Bedford
With data that has emerged in the last week, I'm now 80-90% convinced that infections by the UK variant virus (Pangolin lineage B.1.1.7, @nextstrain clade 20B/501Y.V1) result in, on average, more onward infections, ie are more transmissible.