Anyone interested in an in-person Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?

I'm excited to announce that the wise and veteran Metaculite @gjm will help out with some moderating on Metaculus!

I'd like to see the more positive-spirited "Will at least one Metaculus user report receiving a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine outside a clinical trial setting by March 2021?" I, for one, prefer speculating about futures where Metaculites are in good health :)

Kudos to @Jgalt for his prescience for considering COVID-19 important enough to post this question back in mid-January!

I'm glad many Metaculites remained in good health. Resolved negatively.

I'm sorry to hear this @isinlor. I'm sure I speak for all Metaculites in saying that I hope you remain well.

@(jabowery), it was brought to our attention that your comments violated our [Terms of Use]( Specifically, we deemed your comments to contain Prohibited User Content: > - Is patently offensive or promotes or otherwise incites racism, bigotry, hatred or physical harm of any kind against any group or individual; We have therefore decided to delete two of your comments. We recommend viewing our [Terms of Use]( to better understand what specific actions may have caused the v...

@Jgalt December 10th? Wow, it looks like they're really responding to it with the urgency it demands.

This is amazing, Navalny has a phone call with member of the squad who tried to assassinate him, pretending to be a high-ranking official questioning him about how the assassination could have failed.

Thrilled to announce that the @krtnu will be joining the crew of community moderators! @krtnu is based in the United States, and has interests in VR, space exploration, and cellular agriculture.

Congratulations to our Lightning Round Tournament winners! You've not only successfully out-forecasting hundreds of others in a rapid-fire setting, [you might even]( have outperformed top infectious disease experts, and most importantly, you’ve contributed to improving the projections of the COVID-19 toll in the US. Well done! In alphabetical order: @alexrjl, @bzial, @Cory, @datscilly, @elifland_ought, @foo, @HadiKhan, @isinlor, @jack, @Jrob6122, @KnowName, @Linch, @Morpheus, @nin...

Hooray! We have another community moderator—@Matthew_Barnett!

@Matthew_Barnett lives in the United States, and has interests in machine learning, Lesswrong-type philosophy, and effective altruism. Matthew has also been applying his talents to making major improvements to the Metaculus prediction.

Another aspect of Metaculus that draws me to it is that it can act as a kind of news-filtration-system; where users bring up events only if these have the potential of actually having an effect on your beliefs (and therefore predictions).

@Jgalt With an IFR of 1/10,000 and a population of 66.65M, 36K deaths means that [checks notes] 540% of the UK population must have been infected!

“What might be said of things in themselves, separated from all relationship to our senses, remains for us absolutely unknown” — Immanuel Kant

@PabloStafforini Perhaps we should start a clock that measures the time till the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists's credibility has been eroded by crying wolf too many times.

Congratulations @AABoyles @PeterHurford and @haven! We'll be in touch with you shortly regarding the details of your prizes!

I'm excited to announce that the brilliant @alexrjl will join the squad of moderators! @alexrjl is based in the UK, and teaches maths and physics when he's not forecasting. Thanks alexrjl!