@mumpskin But the US IC often makes bad predictions, such as, e.g. the prediction that the Afghani government would be able to keep control over Kabul for some time after US troops left.
Can anyone do a wrap-up on how Metaculus has responded to GPT-4, with some nice plots on how beliefs have changed, who has updated most (experienced predictors vs. newcomers), etc. Perhaps the revamped API would come in handy for this, or perhaps Metaculus staff could take a stab at this :) (cc: @Sylvain @christian)
Anyone interested in an in-person Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?
I'm excited to announce that the wise and veteran Metaculite @gjm will help out with some moderating on Metaculus!
The recent design upgrades have been stellar. It's a huge difference relative to ~2 years ago.
Kudos to @Jgalt for his prescience for considering COVID-19 important enough to post this question back in mid-January!
I'd like to see the more positive-spirited "Will at least one Metaculus user report receiving a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine outside a clinical trial setting by March 2021?" I, for one, prefer speculating about futures where Metaculites are in good health :)
My understanding, from some of the US Intelligence reports, is that the initial phase of the invasion has the primary goal of destroying military bases and command and control nodes. This suggests that one shouldn't update to much on Kyiv still being under Ukrainian control, given that the large-scale Russian invasion started just 3 days ago (my guess is that the Metaculus community is currently overindexing on this).
I'm glad many Metaculites remained in good health. Resolved negatively.
I'm sorry to hear this @isinlor. I'm sure I speak for all Metaculites in saying that I hope you remain well.
@Pat2020 the resolution conditions are the same, so it resolves under equivalent conditions.
In light of recent comments, I've changed this question's phrasing from:
When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?
This seems like an improvement, though I'm not sure if this the best phrasing, so suggestions for alternatives are welcome.
@PabloStafforini 233 users made predictions for this question.
AFAICT, Putin has not acknowledged an invasion of any non-de facto Russia-controlled areas, so my guess is that the question shouldn't resolve based on the currently available information (though I'm not sure). Does anyone have a link to a translated trascript of Putin's speech earier this evening?
@Jgalt December 10th? Wow, it looks like they're really responding to it with the urgency it demands.
This is amazing, Navalny has a phone call with member of the squad who tried to assassinate him, pretending to be a high-ranking official questioning him about how the assassination could have failed.
@Jgalt Is she taking bets?
@jack @alwaysrinse I read the emails bectween @alwaysrinse and Scott, and Scott confirmed that he intentionally put the text "Astral Codex Ten mentions this Question" in his latest ACX post. This convinces me that he did in fact, even if very sneakily, refer to this question in the post. I've resolved it postively.