Anyone interested in an in-person Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?
I'm excited to announce that the wise and veteran Metaculite @gjm will help out with some moderating on Metaculus!
I'd like to see the more positive-spirited "Will at least one Metaculus user report receiving a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine outside a clinical trial setting by March 2021?" I, for one, prefer speculating about futures where Metaculites are in good health :)
Kudos to @Jgalt for his prescience for considering COVID-19 important enough to post this question back in mid-January!
I'm glad many Metaculites remained in good health. Resolved negatively.
I'm sorry to hear this @isinlor. I'm sure I speak for all Metaculites in saying that I hope you remain well.
@PabloStafforini 233 users made predictions for this question.
@Jgalt December 10th? Wow, it looks like they're really responding to it with the urgency it demands.
This is amazing, Navalny has a phone call with member of the squad who tried to assassinate him, pretending to be a high-ranking official questioning him about how the assassination could have failed.
@Jgalt Is she taking bets?
Another aspect of Metaculus that draws me to it is that it can act as a kind of news-filtration-system; where users bring up events only if these have the potential of actually having an effect on your beliefs (and therefore predictions).
@Jgalt With an IFR of 1/10,000 and a population of 66.65M, 36K deaths means that [checks notes] 540% of the UK population must have been infected!
“What might be said of things in themselves, separated from all relationship to our senses, remains for us absolutely unknown” — Immanuel Kant
@PabloStafforini Perhaps we should start a clock that measures the time till the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists's credibility has been eroded by crying wolf too many times.