@Symmetry Well, the results came back negative so this doesn't resolve yet. Given that this is the only time in my life I've had (mild) pneumonia I still think it's more likely than not actually Covid and the test came back negative due to it having mostly cleared up by the time I could get a test scheduled. Still, I clearly don't meet the resolution criteria.
Will nuclear, chemical, biological, or radiological weapons be deployed in the conflict?
Well, I've come down with some symptoms that are mild but potentially consistent with Covid-19. I'll let you all know if the scheduled test comes back positive.
@holomanga Yes, there's reason to think that the number of infections is under-reported but less reason to think that the number of deaths is.
In Kim Jong Un's January 2021 deference speech he mentioned “make nuclear weapons smaller and lighter for more tactical uses” as a top priority so we should expect to see numbers growing there.
Looks like aspects of the environmental review are likely to delay things: https://twitter.com/BCCarCounters/status/1703…
@Jgalt Elon is known for being optimistic in his timelines, a well tread joke is that any time Elon gives a timeline in years we should consider it to be in 687 day Mars years. Applying that expansion factor to this prediction would set the landing for 2036.
I must confess I'm still a bit confused as to the linearity of the growth in the number of infections outside of China, seemingly caused by very few person to person transmissions. Possibly this is just the incubation period I suppose but even so the number of confirmed infections shouldn't be large enough to make a substantial impact before February 17th.
Precedent is against it but in our current cycle of escalating constitutional hardball it seems that unprecedented but legal things are being brought into the partisan conflict every other year.
79%: Putin's war goals seem to require him to occupy the capital unless the Ukranians roll over without a fight and Russian troops to end up entering with the consent of the government. And I'm very pessimistic about Ukraine's ability to hold them off.
Reports of a naval operation landing there: https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/149…
This paper discussed in This Week In Virology about patients who clear up the virus with an adaptive T cell response without developing antibodies is making me downgrade my estimate of the lethality.
Really this is the sort of thing that should have been going lower over time and I'm vaguely embarrassed for not doing that, even though I accrued points.
I would give very different estimates to questions where he only has to say he lost once to resolve versus where he only has to say he didn't lose once for it to resolve.
@Zermelo Never say 100%, given reports can be wrong, but nearly certain and I'm at 99
It seems that Putin is officially declaring the start of hostilities with Ukraine.