Sorry for the double-resolution, it turns out 1.8 is not the same as 1817502.

Hello everybody. To make this more confusing than it needed to be, I thought this was the perfect time to start using my real (first) name. No more @(tenthkrige), I'm @Sylvain now. Yes I'm french.

Now that that's taken care of, back to platitudes: I'm genuinely happy to be able to help around here. I always welcome criticisms of what I do or don't do (praise too!), and hope my small part in this weird endeavour will turn out positive for all involved. See you around or in the comments here.

@Based unless the AI overlords decide to put smart humans in charge of human affairs, in which case your Metaculus score is a strong signal of your superior smartness.

Some context from a mildly informed Frenchman: Of the last 7 [French Presidents](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_France), 3 where re-elected for a second term. (1 died in office before he could run a second time). The last 2 were not re-elected. Macron is the first Centrist President in quite a while. He profited from the breaking down of the 2.5-party system, and his success broke it even further. This was possible because there were no strong candidates in the traditional parties. Now, one is even less likely to emerge. Interesti...
Well this was tedious. [link to sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wtkwEh_fS6iaChiTL_8aX92XHbJhdE83EPnV9_uHiEo/edit?usp=sharing). Result: **538 has a score of 0.417, to PredictIt's 0.485, 538 wins!** Comments: + 538 had a forecast for American Samoa, but PredictIt didn't, and the question did not include it, so it was ignored (sorry America Samoans). + PredictIt's markets are delisted from the site once closed, but they are still [duckalbe](https://duckduckgo.com/?q=predictit+Vermont+Democratic+primary&t=lm&ia=web). + PredictIt's UI d...
An important meta point I haven't seen made (and which I would have made sooner had real life not intervened): If the 2020-2016 difference had been in the other direction, I think it is very unlikely anybody would have looked into it as deeply, and we would have resolved negative without much discussion. If this counterfactual is correct, then we are setting a norm of only overturning close calls *that cost us points*, and we are eroding the value of Metaculus' endeavour. Tbc I'm not saying that looking more deeply into surprising events is bad, but t...

It seems to me that:

  1. This should resolve negative right now. Absence of evidence is actually evidence of absence.

  2. The resolution criteria clearly state "before 21 January 2021, Trump uses the pardon power", which does not require that we know about it, so if we at any point learn that he did, this will be re-resolved positive.

Sorry, I resolved to 45 rather than 45000000. Small difference, really. Fixed now.

To people who genuinely have a high credence: I find your position extremely optimistic, but ok.

To people who predicted high because in most scenarios that should resolve this negative, this doesn't resolve at all: Please consider what will be more important then. A few more MIPs might not matter all that much, but having helped correctly inform humanity on the dangers of the transition is its own reward.

@DanielFilan speaking for myself, because major powers seem (on average) a lot less belligerent now than they were over that period. I would for example be extremely surprised if EU countries declared war on each other in the next 30 years.

Results

All the legally cast votes have been counted, and we are happy to report that @beala and @casens have won this election!

Congratulations to all the candidates! I can say that personally I would have been happy with any two of you!

Insomnia idea: a checklist displayed during question writing/editing and during the pending and upcoming phases. Checklists are good at preventing avoidable oversights ([source](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3489073/)), also known as dumb mistakes. **Please keep the discussion below focused on the merits of such a checklist, without mentioning any particular item you want on it.** If the idea is judged good, I'll make a Discussion page to crowd-source the contents. <small>Of course no pressure on the dev team for implementation, but it'l...
@(EJ) they seem to count the number of articles you read on their site. Purging their cookies should work. [ETA:] Long story short: NYT have an internal slack channel with 2k people in it. Some non-journalists (devs and assorted tech people apparently) politely said doxxing Scott was not ok. Some journalists politely replied it's not doxxing because "doxxing" implies the author intends for the subject to be harassed. Week-sauce defence obviously, but it shows Scott should not (imo) have used the word doxx, because not everybody is embarassed to motte a...

@aphlac my model of him says he would disapprove your preferential treatment.

@nicidob I'm sorry to hear you were mislead. This is a stock question that I think we will ask on many future elections. Do you have suggestions to make it less misleading the next time we run it?

As you point out, the markets and 538 are systemically biased in opposite directions. This is something we should take into account in our forecasts. It does makes this question a lot less interesting/informative, which is unfortunate.

P.S.: please use the mods/admins ping sparingly.

@(galen) we can reformulate my three question types above as: 1. Questions are clustered with heavy overlap. 2. Questions are clustered with minimum overlap. 3. Questions are unclustered. The particular meaning I was gesturing at: for 2., not only do you want minimum overlap ("carving"), but you want the borders between questions to make sense ("at the joints"). Even more than that: we want them to make "semantic" sense (i.e. we care about it in the world), not just "syntactic" sense (i.e. the resolution criteria are simple). Success example: the [...

@Jgalt fwiw, I'd much prefer some official statement.

@wobblybobby I think this would fulfill "real-world events subverted one of the assumptions of the question" (faq), so I'd say ambiguous.

@pranomostro, I think they're against lab-grown muscle tissue, not vegan meat replacements. Although since they seem to also be against "Reinforcing Meat Culture", they might turn on the Impossible Burger too.

Depressing detail: they say they're against clean meat, not because it hurts animals, but because it hurts their activism. It's not their only concern, but it's the first one they make explicit.

the Clean Meat Lobby is seriously damaging the animal advocacy movement

I'm slightly sad, now.