@(seanicus64) Invasion seemed "imminent" due to the shelling between Donbass and Ukraine. Explosions in Donetsk and Lugansk seemed like a possible causus belli for Russia to begin its invasion. But the invasion didn't happen, so that gave people pause. I think there was an overcorrection here, invasion is still likely. Russia is carefully setting the scene for a necessary intervention. The situation will continue to deteriorate in Donbass, then Russia will deploy assets in Donbass for its protection, those assets will get attacked, and then Russia will...
@(ersatz) An incursion into anything outside of the control of the pro-Russia separatists satisfies this question. Mariupol is in the Donetsk oblast but it's under Ukrainian control. The taking of Mariupol or Sloviansk would satisfy this question (as long as UN or Russia acknowledges the invasion). The criteria says: "Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. " It doesn't say: "the territory inside the Ukrainian oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk does not satisfy the question...
@(nostradamnedus) Ukraine promising not to join NATO could be the victory that allows Putin to demobilize and save face. In practice it wouldn't mean much. Ukraine will continue buying western arms, and it will wait for another opportunity to develop long range missiles. I've been surprised at how much Ukraine is unwilling to throw the Russians any bones, but it's probably domestic popularity concerns. Any Ukrainian government that starts to implement the Minsk agreement, and pursue rapprochement with Russia will get torn to bits by the Ukrainians. May...
@(ClayGraubard) This guy's major points are good. He does betray some Russia derangement syndrome, however: "Safety can only be found in built-up areas, but unlike the U.S. military Russian forces will have no qualms about shelling civilian population centers if Ukrainian troops hide there." A vast majority of Russians have relatives and friends in Ukraine. They will tolerate some shelling of civilian areas, but there is a threshold. The military would also be squeamish about shelling other East Slavs unless it's completely unavoidable. Americans ha...
@(Tilter) I didn't realize you were the only one here who attempted to estimate the number of troops needed to occupy Eastern Ukraine. I've seen too many of those posts on Twitter. There is value in calculating how many bodies it takes to occupy a medium sized airport and whatnot. Where people go wrong is assuming that this region that is aging and rapidly hollowing out due to emigration, and softened by the age of the internet is going to transform into the mountains of Afghanistan, full of goat herders hopped up on religious fanaticism with nothing t...

I'm less sure of this now. I think a majority of Russian casualties so far are the result of Western MANPADs and handheld anti vehicle weapons. Now that the Anglo-American block is sending those in by the thousand (and I don't think Russia has a way to stop them from reaching Western Ukraine) I think Russia may not want to venture as far as Lviv with ground forces.

To leave a hostile rump state in western Ukraine would be to leave a massive thorn in the side for Russian Ukraine. Lviv would be a harbor for anti-Russian rebels to train and equip before making secret excursions into Russian Ukraine. When US invaded Iraq, the Americans weren't planning on allowing Hussein or his allies to continue ruling some rump state because it's just too hard for America to rule the whole country. Same for Afghanistan. But I'm not sure, the Dniepr could be a sufficient border between Russian and West Ukraine

@tryingToPredictFuture The question is about this year. Putin's essay shows a desire to see Russia and Ukraine reunited at some point. Putin's administration could decide to put off the recovering of Ukraine till the next generation. He may decide to take what he's got (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Syria, some other countries he has a foot in) and hunker down and outlive the Anglo-American block, see if there's an opportunity several decades later to recover Ukraine. A lot can change in a few decades.

Conflicting reports about his whereabouts. First step for positive resolution here is Medvedchuk must reach Russian lines alive.

Seems like political suicide for a Ukrainian administration to agree to this. It would be a huge walk-down from "we will take back Crimea" to "we will give these rebellious oblasts their autonomy, please don't invade." But ultimately the ruling government of Ukraine could be better off making such a concession than going down in history as the government whose pigheaded stubbornness led to the humiliation and occupation of Ukraine. Feels like kicking the can across the road. My sense is that in this scenario, the next president and parliament of Ukraine...
80%. If Russians go the 2000 Grozny route, they need about a month. This strategy would entail surrounding Kiev with artillery (almost done). Then make probative incursions to draw out the enemy before striking them with artillery. Do that for about a month and then storm the city. They could alternatively decide to storm the city soon, no telling how the defenders will react. Russia would incur more casualties but may deem the casualties worthwhile in bringing the war to a quicker end. Then there's the chance Russians decide not to take the city at al...

Community prediction tends to rise during the day, peaking at night, then fall several points during the night. Maybe because people bank on a morning invasion (Moscow Time)? Barbarossa and invasion of Poland began early in the morning.

t. Central Time

— edited by SteadyasaRock

@oracleofferentari But that's Belarus, not Donbass. Am I missing something?

Wow, jumped 20% in about an hour. New yes people, is the latest intelligence report substantially different from the ones we've seen over the last few months? Honest question. I thought we've seen western intelligence claim they've intercepted invasion orders several times before.

@nr3forecasting Nobody in the west would buy a false flag attack. But countries outside of the western world, like India, China, Iran, etc. Who are either military partners or have important arms deals with Russia need something, anything, to have plausible deniability to continue their arrangements with Russia. A false flag would be a considerate thing for Russia to do for its international partners. To say nothing about Russians themselves, who would buy a false flag, given the Ukrainians' harsh treatment of pro Russia dissidents inside Ukraine.

@(oracleofferentari) Last year Ukraine hinted that the country could start developing nuclear weapons, A few days ago, Zelensky hinted at this again. That, coupled with the creeping unofficial integration of the country into NATO presents a grave security risk to Russia. In several years, or a couple decades, a better armed Ukraine could find itself in a position to probe Russia's defenses, with the presence of NATO personnel on its territory as a meat shield to make a Russian retaliation more messy. Ukraine would be demanding its own lawful territory in...

@crunchwrapoDeLaFuente Not currently rebel-held Donbass.

Two of the following, or Russia, must declare that Russia has invaded Ukraine: UK, US, France, China

But the "invasion" cannot be limited to just territory de-facto occupied by Russia (Crimea and rebel-held Donbass in this case)

What will Russia, or the western UN security trio (US, UK, France) consider an "invasion?" The question needs either Russia or two of the UN security council members to acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine (most likely would be two of the following: US, UK, France) for a positive resolution. If Russia conducts an artillery/air strike against Ukrainian military, but does nothing else, will the west call that an invasion? What if Russia conducted the strike, and conducted some minor army incursions into Ukrainian territory, but left within days? *...

This city is a bare minimum. Donetsk claims it, Russia is going in on account of Donetsk

@BrunoYammine Putin warned that if Donetsk and Lugansk don't stop exploding Ukraine will regret it. (I think we know that those cities probably won't stop exploding)