I'm less sure of this now. I think a majority of Russian casualties so far are the result of Western MANPADs and handheld anti vehicle weapons. Now that the Anglo-American block is sending those in by the thousand (and I don't think Russia has a way to stop them from reaching Western Ukraine) I think Russia may not want to venture as far as Lviv with ground forces.
To leave a hostile rump state in western Ukraine would be to leave a massive thorn in the side for Russian Ukraine. Lviv would be a harbor for anti-Russian rebels to train and equip before making secret excursions into Russian Ukraine. When US invaded Iraq, the Americans weren't planning on allowing Hussein or his allies to continue ruling some rump state because it's just too hard for America to rule the whole country. Same for Afghanistan. But I'm not sure, the Dniepr could be a sufficient border between Russian and West Ukraine
@tryingToPredictFuture The question is about this year. Putin's essay shows a desire to see Russia and Ukraine reunited at some point. Putin's administration could decide to put off the recovering of Ukraine till the next generation. He may decide to take what he's got (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Syria, some other countries he has a foot in) and hunker down and outlive the Anglo-American block, see if there's an opportunity several decades later to recover Ukraine. A lot can change in a few decades.
Conflicting reports about his whereabouts. First step for positive resolution here is Medvedchuk must reach Russian lines alive.
Community prediction tends to rise during the day, peaking at night, then fall several points during the night. Maybe because people bank on a morning invasion (Moscow Time)? Barbarossa and invasion of Poland began early in the morning.
t. Central Time
— edited by SteadyasaRock
@oracleofferentari But that's Belarus, not Donbass. Am I missing something?
Wow, jumped 20% in about an hour. New yes people, is the latest intelligence report substantially different from the ones we've seen over the last few months? Honest question. I thought we've seen western intelligence claim they've intercepted invasion orders several times before.
@nr3forecasting Nobody in the west would buy a false flag attack. But countries outside of the western world, like India, China, Iran, etc. Who are either military partners or have important arms deals with Russia need something, anything, to have plausible deniability to continue their arrangements with Russia. A false flag would be a considerate thing for Russia to do for its international partners. To say nothing about Russians themselves, who would buy a false flag, given the Ukrainians' harsh treatment of pro Russia dissidents inside Ukraine.
@crunchwrapoDeLaFuente Not currently rebel-held Donbass.
Two of the following, or Russia, must declare that Russia has invaded Ukraine: UK, US, France, China
But the "invasion" cannot be limited to just territory de-facto occupied by Russia (Crimea and rebel-held Donbass in this case)
This city is a bare minimum. Donetsk claims it, Russia is going in on account of Donetsk
@BrunoYammine Putin warned that if Donetsk and Lugansk don't stop exploding Ukraine will regret it. (I think we know that those cities probably won't stop exploding)