Note: this question mirrors an existing question, extending the scale to the 1-8B range. Make sure your prediction is consistent across both questions.
There's no NYT policy that prohibits using pseudonyms.
Can you provide a source for that claim?
@sbares What probability would you put on:
Now several buyers have reached out to Electrek to confirm that they have taken delivery of the ‘Model 3 Standard Range’.
So it seems that question resolves positive.
@Jgalt I agree. When I posted my comment I was half-seriously referring to ETA below question.
Targeted Test Flight Dates:
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): August 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): November 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1 (uncrewed): August 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): December 2018
Michael Vassar offers to bet at least $500 against AI winning Gold Medal
Is any Metaculus user willing to make a large, real, legal bet on this claim?
Was offering 50%. Can do $500 if admin is simple. I have one taker at $1K already, so there are apparently at least some people who do somewhat believe these estimates. Will see how many.
Does this tweet satisfy resolution criteria? :)
Further, Flan-U-PaLM achieves a new state-of-the-art on the MMLU benchmark with a score of 75.4% when combined with chain of thought and self-consistency.