Shouldn't this question be resolved? I think even GPT-3 got a decent chance of completing the task and since its debut there appeared even more capable models. If this doesn't qualify as "actual demonstration", it would be nice to get an assessment from "two experts in the field that a comparably capable system exists" (as mentioned in resolution criteria).
(Conflict of interest: I put 8% of the cumulative probability that this will happen before 2022.)
As I said last year, there is 0% that SpaceX will land people on Mars IMO.
Sigh... Would you be willing to bet your $10 000 against my $10?
@Skyt3ch Would you take a bet where you get $10 if Trump is not re-elected and pay out $200 if he is re-elected?
Note: this question mirrors an existing question, extending the scale to the 1-8B range. Make sure your prediction is consistent across both questions.
There's no NYT policy that prohibits using pseudonyms.
Can you provide a source for that claim?
@sbares What probability would you put on:
Now several buyers have reached out to Electrek to confirm that they have taken delivery of the ‘Model 3 Standard Range’.
So it seems that question resolves positive.
@Jgalt I agree. When I posted my comment I was half-seriously referring to ETA below question.
Targeted Test Flight Dates:
Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): August 2018
Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): November 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1 (uncrewed): August 2018
SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): December 2018
Does this tweet satisfy resolution criteria? :)