Shouldn't this question be resolved? I think even GPT-3 got a decent chance of completing the task and since its debut there appeared even more capable models. If this doesn't qualify as "actual demonstration", it would be nice to get an assessment from "two experts in the field that a comparably capable system exists" (as mentioned in resolution criteria).

(Conflict of interest: I put 8% of the cumulative probability that this will happen before 2022.)

[New Law Gives Sweeping Powers To Hungary's Orban, Alarming Rights Advocates](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/30/823778208/new-law-gives-sweeping-powers-to-hungarys-orban-alarming-rights-advocates?t=1585603508076) >The nationalist government in Hungary passed a law Monday granting sweeping emergency powers that Prime Minister Viktor Orban says are necessary to fight the coronavirus pandemic. >Those powers include sidelining parliament and giving Orban the power to rule by decree indefinitely. The law would punish those who...

@JurijZucker wrote:

As I said last year, there is 0% that SpaceX will land people on Mars IMO.

Sigh... Would you be willing to bet your $10 000 against my $10?

@Skyt3ch Would you take a bet where you get $10 if Trump is not re-elected and pay out $200 if he is re-elected?

@(isinlor) wrote: > @(Spirit59) I'm the author of the corresponding NASA question, but not the author of this question. > > I have the same expectation as you for this question. To resolve positively SpaceX logo MUST be prominent on the mission hardware. Obviously, this is what "branded" means. But more implicitly that it also should be in big part SpaceX effort, at least SpaceX rocket and spacecraft. > > I would not add to this question any financial requirements. > > I think community took similar interpretation. At least people who tried to actually...

In a [similar question concerning NASA](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) word "branded" seems to be synonymous with a particular level of financial contribution: >The question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget. also, from the comment section: >>what if a multinational effort with NASA a major but not over 50% contributor? >If not over 50%, then NASA would nee...

@(randomuser2323)This comment gives the impression that the planned uncrewed mission in 2018 and crewed in 2024 was meant to be performed with the same vehicle which it wasn't - it's important to note that 2018 mission was planned with [Red Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Red_Dragon) in mind, not Starship. >In April 2016, SpaceX announced that they had signed an unfunded Space Act Agreement with NASA, providing technical support, for a launch no earlier than 2018. In February 2017, SpaceX noted this launch date was delayed to no earlier than...

https://twitter.com/DanHendrycks/status/1395536919774121984 >Can Transformers crack the coding interview? We collected 10,000 programming problems to find out. GPT-3 isn't very good, but new models like GPT-Neo are starting to be able to solve introductory coding challenges. From the paper's abstract: >[...] Our benchmark includes 10,000problems, which range from having simple one-line solutions to being substantial algorithmic challenges. We fine-tune large language models on both GitHub and our training set, and we find that the prevalence of syntax e...

1. OpenAI Model Generates Python Code

2. GPT-3 JavaScript tutorial taken from here

I think this question should be added to Elon Musk related timeline. [edit: also these questions [1] [2] [3]

— edited by Spirit59

@alexlyzhov

Note: this question mirrors an existing question, extending the scale to the 1-8B range. Make sure your prediction is consistent across both questions.

@ThirdEyeOpen

There's no NYT policy that prohibits using pseudonyms.

Can you provide a source for that claim?

@sbares What probability would you put on:

1. SpaceX test-launching the BFR a.k.a. Super Heavy + Starship stack before 2025

2. SpaceX landing anything on Mars by 2030?

What if team developing AI announce that their agent defeated high-rank Starcraft 2 player months ago? I mean situation similar to [AlphaGo vs Fan Hui](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaGo_versus_Fan_Hui): >AlphaGo versus Fan Hui was a five-game Go match between European champion Fan Hui, a 2-dan (out of 9 dan possible) professional, and AlphaGo, a computer Go program developed by DeepMind, held at DeepMind's headquarters in London in October 2015. AlphaGo won all the five games. This was the first time a computer Go program had beaten a professional h...

Tesla delivers first $35,000 Model 3s to a happy few customers

Now several buyers have reached out to Electrek to confirm that they have taken delivery of the ‘Model 3 Standard Range’.

So it seems that question resolves positive.

@Jgalt I agree. When I posted my comment I was half-seriously referring to ETA below question.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2018/01/11/nasas-commercial-crew-program-target-test-flight-dates-2/

Targeted Test Flight Dates:

Boeing Orbital Flight Test (uncrewed): August 2018

Boeing Crew Flight Test (crewed): November 2018

SpaceX Demonstration Mission 1 (uncrewed): August 2018

SpaceX Demonstration Mission 2 (crewed): December 2018

I think it would be helpful to explicitly disambiguate that (as I judge by these comments [[1]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1673/will-spacex-start-testing-a-starship-bfs-before-2020/#comment-11446) [[2]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1673/will-spacex-start-testing-a-starship-bfs-before-2020/#comment-11459) ) both "Starhopper" (currently built in Boca Chica and recently damaged by wind) and orbital Starship prototype (aimed to debut in June 2019) count for resolution criteria, so that users don't have to dig in the comment section to find th...

Does this tweet satisfy resolution criteria? :)

[**Program Synthesis with Large Language Models.**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.07732) From the paper's abstract: >This paper explores the limits of the current generation of large language models for program synthesis in general purpose programming languages. We evaluate a collection of such models (with between 244M and 137B parameters) on two new benchmarks, MBPP and MathQA-Python, in both the few-shot and fine-tuning regimes. Our benchmarks are designed to measure the ability of these models to synthesize short Python programs from natural language d...