Inconsistency between questions: in Time From (weak) AGI to Superintelligence the community forecasts 2.5 years, which combined with the current forecasted date for Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known (Dec 28, 2027) gives Superintelligence by 2031 (in contrast with 2038 predicted here for AGI).
Shouldn't this question be resolved? I think even GPT-3 got a decent chance of completing the task and since its debut there appeared even more capable models. If this doesn't qualify as "actual demonstration", it would be nice to get an assessment from "two experts in the field that a comparably capable system exists" (as mentioned in resolution criteria).
(Conflict of interest: I put 8% of the cumulative probability that this will happen before 2022.)
As I said last year, there is 0% that SpaceX will land people on Mars IMO.
Sigh... Would you be willing to bet your $10 000 against my $10?
From one of the authors of Cicero:
It's designed to never intentionally backstab - all its messages correspond to actions it currently plans to take. However, sometimes it changes its mind...
Seems like a limitation that when lifted could boost performance.
@Skyt3ch Would you take a bet where you get $10 if Trump is not re-elected and pay out $200 if he is re-elected?
@Matthew_Barnett Does this question consider only dense models or do sparse models also qualify for question resolution?
Sorry for venting but assigning rapidly rising probability per launch opportunity between 2027 and 2040 is a nightmare when using sliders and available years go up to 2100. Can we get this question as a set of binary questions per Hohmann transfer window or as a range question with years going up to 2050?
What happened to Forecasting AI Progress tournament? It's not present on the list of tournaments. Its original page is blank. On the page with tournament rules timeline is deleted (IIRC what I read from archived page on waybackmachine, results should be announced mid-February this year). I asked about it on Twitter by tagging metaculus Twitter profile but got no response. What is going on?
@jacob.steinhardt This question should get resolved for "June 30, 2023".