What fraction of active users will switch back to dark mode?

I've struggled to get my "prediction" in the right format, but I think this is about as close as I'm going to get. My prediction isn't as much "my" prediction as "what I think the market probabilities are" and my view is "the market is broadly sensible". I thought this question was going to be pretty sensitive to kurtosis, so rather than modelling it as a lognormal random walk, I fitted a [Heston model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heston_model) to the Deribit option prices. Having spent a bunch of time collecting the prices and fitting the model. My...

Given Dobbs counts, worth noting FantasySCOTUS is currently forecasting a 6-3 reversal (ie this question resolving positive)

β€” edited by SimonM

There's something fairly nasty about predicting maximums on Metaculus. The "correct" distribution is a mixture of discrete (probability we've already had the maximum) and continuous (probability the maximum is yet to come). (The distribution also tends to be very not-symmetric, which is always quite hard to predict using the Metaculus input).

@(alexlyzhov) If anyone is interested in calculating this for themselves, they can look at prices [from Deribit](https://www.deribit.com/main#/options?tab=BTC-31DEC21). The quick and dirty calculation would be to look at the 80k/120k call spread (divided by 40k). Currently this is: * (14,700 - 9,750)/(40,000) = 4,950/40,000 = 12.4% A barely more sophisticated way to do this would be to calculate a tight call spread using Black-Scholes around 100k. To avoid worrying about (fairly confusing) interest rates, we can use the forward from Deribit: 54,400 an...
> Assuming the default risk is really 4%, I find it interesting that the 10-year Treasury is only paying interest of 1.5%. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y --> There are a lot of things I do not understand about investor behavior, and people buying up Treasury bonds at such a low yield is one of them. @johnnycaffeine @MaciekK @JosephLamps > This seems like the kind of thing that serious financial forecasters would be interested in - is there any way to infer this from eg the interest rates they’re paying on US government loans, for example? @holoman...
Including tests in this question seems like a bad thing for two reasons: 1. It doesn't get at the heart of the issue (will a nuke be detonated in a way which is bad news for humanity) 2. People looking at the forecast (which I assume will be much higher than the chances of an attacking nuke) are likely to be misled by a high forecast. Anyway, from scanning wikipedia post-2000 there were tests in: 2004(?), 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2020(?) Counting questionable tests has half, the base rate for this could be 7/21 ~33%. Seems a good way to sc...
My best guess at what this question is asking for historically |GSS_Year|Female-Yes|Female-No|Female-NA|Female-%age|Male-Yes|Male-No|Male-NA|Male-%age| |----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| |1988|165|14|12|7.8%|136|16|13|10.5%| |1989|154|18|12|10.5%|124|23|8|15.6%| |1990|131|14|7|9.7%|104|10|10|8.8%| |1991|75|3|87|3.8%|46|9|85|16.4%| |1993|144|15|7|9.4%|110|16|9|12.7%| |1994|238|27|26|10.2%|185|26|19|12.3%| |1996|280|21|24|7%|226|21|19|8.5%| |1998|244|29|22|10.6%|175|34|33|16.3%| |2000|216|23|38|9.6%|186|34|29|15.5%| |2002|222|26|41|10.5%|195|2...

Because I keep having to check this:

  1. Walmart
  2. Exxon Mobil
  3. Apple
  4. Berkshire Hathaway
  5. Amazon.com
  6. UnitedHealth Group
  7. McKesson
  8. CVS Health
  9. AT&T
  10. AmerisourceBergen
  11. Chevron
  12. Ford Motor
  13. General Motors
  14. Costco Wholesale
  15. Alphabet
  16. Cardinal Health
  17. Walgreens Boots Alliance
  18. JPMorgan Chase
  19. Verizon Communications
  20. Kroger
  21. General Electric
  22. Fannie Mae
  23. Phillips 66
  24. Valero Energy
  25. Bank of America
@(PeterHurford) Of course. The probability of a random walk starting at 0 reaching a point \(x\) after time \(t \) with volatility \( \sigma \) is [given by](https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/12797/12046): \[ \mathrm{erfc}\left( \frac{x}{\sqrt{2t \sigma^2}} \right) \] To calculate \(\sigma\), I downloaded data from [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) and looked at the daily closes. I then took the 0-mean standard deviation of the daily log returns: \[ \sigma^2 = \frac{1}{\text{num days}} \sum_{\text{all days}} \left ( \textrm{log} \le...
[This website](https://www.wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html#name1=Carlsen%2C+Magnus&name2=Nepomniachtchi%2C+Ian&first_move=player1&formula=logistic&best_of=14) gives a 77% chance to Carlsen for the first 14 games, 12% to Nepo and 10% chance of a tie (and hence tiebreakers). (Using current Elo ratings) Using the same odds (per game) for the tiebreaks, Carlsen has an ~75% chance of winning the tiebreak. So call this 85% chance of retaining the title. I think this method drastically underestimates the number of draws in World Championship matches. The last...
I'm sure I'm just embarrassing myself at this point, but despite all the evidence I think this is starting to look like a Metaculus special. 1. Cases in Scotland already peaked ~2.5 weeks ago. The latest wave started there around ~3 weeks earlier than in England. 2. Cases in the UK look like they are *starting* to peak. (Low confidence in this, but I can persuade myself they've already peaked) 3. Current case level is "just" sufficient to cause 100 deaths/day: Currently cases are converting to deaths at a rate somewhere between 0.15 and 0.2%. This wo...

@Tamay This is going to resolve positive before it opens πŸš€πŸš€πŸš€

I am tracking predictions/week and total predictions on MetaculusExtras

This comment was moved from How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by December 31, 2023? to this question group. Learn more about Question groups


"Did people simply fail to update their prediction?"

is usually the explanation

@admins This resolves 1.28: * One point if the report is mentioned in the English Wikipedia's section "In the news" on its main page. 0/1 * One point if the Google Trends interest in the topic of UFOs reaches at least 300% any prior level in the last 12 months, as determined using the current widget showing the last 12 months of interest on Google Trends. 1/1 * One point if a Reddit post regarding UAPs receives at least 150 thousand net upvotes, as measured by browsing /r/all and viewing the top posts of the last month. 0/1 * One point if President B...

The Court receives approximately 7,000-8,000 petitions for a writ of certiorari each Term. The Court grants and hears oral argument in about 80 cases.


That's a pretty brutal base rate