AMBIGUOUSLY

### SimonM (13) Suggest questions to launch

What fraction of active users will switch back to dark mode?

### SimonM (13) Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?

I've struggled to get my "prediction" in the right format, but I think this is about as close as I'm going to get. My prediction isn't as much "my" prediction as "what I think the market probabilities are" and my view is "the market is broadly sensible". I thought this question was going to be pretty sensitive to kurtosis, so rather than modelling it as a lognormal random walk, I fitted a [Heston model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heston_model) to the Deribit option prices. Having spent a bunch of time collecting the prices and fitting the model. My...

### SimonM (11) Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned by July 31, 2028?

Given Dobbs counts, worth noting FantasySCOTUS is currently forecasting a 6-3 reversal (ie this question resolving positive)

β edited by SimonM

### SimonM (11) Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?

There's something fairly nasty about predicting maximums on Metaculus. The "correct" distribution is a mixture of discrete (probability we've already had the maximum) and continuous (probability the maximum is yet to come). (The distribution also tends to be very not-symmetric, which is always quite hard to predict using the Metaculus input).

### SimonM (11) Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025? @(alexlyzhov) If anyone is interested in calculating this for themselves, they can look at prices [from Deribit](https://www.deribit.com/main#/options?tab=BTC-31DEC21). The quick and dirty calculation would be to look at the 80k/120k call spread (divided by 40k). Currently this is: * (14,700 - 9,750)/(40,000) = 4,950/40,000 = 12.4% A barely more sophisticated way to do this would be to calculate a tight call spread using Black-Scholes around 100k. To avoid worrying about (fairly confusing) interest rates, we can use the forward from Deribit: 54,400 an... ### SimonM (10) Will the U.S. default on its debt before 1 November 2021? > Assuming the default risk is really 4%, I find it interesting that the 10-year Treasury is only paying interest of 1.5%. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y --> There are a lot of things I do not understand about investor behavior, and people buying up Treasury bonds at such a low yield is one of them. @johnnycaffeine @MaciekK @JosephLamps > This seems like the kind of thing that serious financial forecasters would be interested in - is there any way to infer this from eg the interest rates theyβre paying on US government loans, for example? @holoman... ### SimonM (10) Will a nuclear bomb be detonated before December 31, 2022? Including tests in this question seems like a bad thing for two reasons: 1. It doesn't get at the heart of the issue (will a nuke be detonated in a way which is bad news for humanity) 2. People looking at the forecast (which I assume will be much higher than the chances of an attacking nuke) are likely to be misled by a high forecast. Anyway, from scanning wikipedia post-2000 there were tests in: 2004(?), 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2020(?) Counting questionable tests has half, the base rate for this could be 7/21 ~33%. Seems a good way to sc... ### SimonM (10) What percentage of young US men will be sexless in 2024? My best guess at what this question is asking for historically |GSS_Year|Female-Yes|Female-No|Female-NA|Female-%age|Male-Yes|Male-No|Male-NA|Male-%age| |----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| |1988|165|14|12|7.8%|136|16|13|10.5%| |1989|154|18|12|10.5%|124|23|8|15.6%| |1990|131|14|7|9.7%|104|10|10|8.8%| |1991|75|3|87|3.8%|46|9|85|16.4%| |1993|144|15|7|9.4%|110|16|9|12.7%| |1994|238|27|26|10.2%|185|26|19|12.3%| |1996|280|21|24|7%|226|21|19|8.5%| |1998|244|29|22|10.6%|175|34|33|16.3%| |2000|216|23|38|9.6%|186|34|29|15.5%| |2002|222|26|41|10.5%|195|2... ### SimonM (10) Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy between March 2020 to March 2024? Because I keep having to check this: 1. Walmart 2. Exxon Mobil 3. Apple 4. Berkshire Hathaway 5. Amazon.com 6. UnitedHealth Group 7. McKesson 8. CVS Health 9. AT&T 10. AmerisourceBergen 11. Chevron 12. Ford Motor 13. General Motors 14. Costco Wholesale 15. Alphabet 16. Cardinal Health 17. Walgreens Boots Alliance 18. JPMorgan Chase 19. Verizon Communications 20. Kroger 21. General Electric 22. Fannie Mae 23. Phillips 66 24. Valero Energy 25. Bank of America ### SimonM (10) Will 2020 be the warmest year on record? POSITIVELY ### SimonM (10) Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth$100,000 or more before 2025?

@(PeterHurford) Of course. The probability of a random walk starting at 0 reaching a point $$x$$ after time $$t$$ with volatility $$\sigma$$ is [given by](https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/12797/12046): $\mathrm{erfc}\left( \frac{x}{\sqrt{2t \sigma^2}} \right)$ To calculate $$\sigma$$, I downloaded data from [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) and looked at the daily closes. I then took the 0-mean standard deviation of the daily log returns: \[ \sigma^2 = \frac{1}{\text{num days}} \sum_{\text{all days}} \left ( \textrm{log} \le...

### SimonM (9) Will Magnus Carlsen retain the Chess World Championship for a fifth time?

[This website](https://www.wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html#name1=Carlsen%2C+Magnus&name2=Nepomniachtchi%2C+Ian&first_move=player1&formula=logistic&best_of=14) gives a 77% chance to Carlsen for the first 14 games, 12% to Nepo and 10% chance of a tie (and hence tiebreakers). (Using current Elo ratings) Using the same odds (per game) for the tiebreaks, Carlsen has an ~75% chance of winning the tiebreak. So call this 85% chance of retaining the title. I think this method drastically underestimates the number of draws in World Championship matches. The last...

### SimonM (9) Will the UK experience a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic in 2021?

I'm sure I'm just embarrassing myself at this point, but despite all the evidence I think this is starting to look like a Metaculus special. 1. Cases in Scotland already peaked ~2.5 weeks ago. The latest wave started there around ~3 weeks earlier than in England. 2. Cases in the UK look like they are *starting* to peak. (Low confidence in this, but I can persuade myself they've already peaked) 3. Current case level is "just" sufficient to cause 100 deaths/day: Currently cases are converting to deaths at a rate somewhere between 0.15 and 0.2%. This wo...

YOLO

### SimonM (9) How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates?

I am tracking predictions/week and total predictions on MetaculusExtras

This comment was moved from How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by December 31, 2023? to this question group. Learn more about Question groups

### SimonM (8) Will none of Trump's immediate family be indicted in 2021?

@clearthis

"Did people simply fail to update their prediction?"

is usually the explanation

### SimonM (8) How much interest will the 2021 US Government report on UAPs generate?

@admins This resolves 1.28: * One point if the report is mentioned in the English Wikipedia's section "In the news" on its main page. 0/1 * One point if the Google Trends interest in the topic of UFOs reaches at least 300% any prior level in the last 12 months, as determined using the current widget showing the last 12 months of interest on Google Trends. 1/1 * One point if a Reddit post regarding UAPs receives at least 150 thousand net upvotes, as measured by browsing /r/all and viewing the top posts of the last month. 0/1 * One point if President B...

### SimonM (8) Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?

The Court receives approximately 7,000-8,000 petitions for a writ of certiorari each Term. The Court grants and hears oral argument in about 80 cases.

SCOTUS FAQ

That's a pretty brutal base rate