AMBIGUOUSLY

What fraction of active users will switch back to dark mode?

I've struggled to get my "prediction" in the right format, but I think this is about as close as I'm going to get.
My prediction isn't as much "my" prediction as "what I think the market probabilities are" and my view is "the market is broadly sensible".
I thought this question was going to be pretty sensitive to kurtosis, so rather than modelling it as a lognormal random walk, I fitted a [Heston model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heston_model) to the Deribit option prices.
Having spent a bunch of time collecting the prices and fitting the model. My...

Given Dobbs counts, worth noting FantasySCOTUS is currently forecasting a 6-3 reversal (ie this question resolving positive)

*β edited by SimonM*

There's something fairly nasty about predicting maximums on Metaculus. The "correct" distribution is a mixture of discrete (probability we've already had the maximum) and continuous (probability the maximum is yet to come). (The distribution also tends to be very not-symmetric, which is always quite hard to predict using the Metaculus input).

@(alexlyzhov) If anyone is interested in calculating this for themselves, they can look at prices [from Deribit](https://www.deribit.com/main#/options?tab=BTC-31DEC21).
The quick and dirty calculation would be to look at the 80k/120k call spread (divided by 40k). Currently this is:
* (14,700 - 9,750)/(40,000) = 4,950/40,000 = 12.4%
A barely more sophisticated way to do this would be to calculate a tight call spread using Black-Scholes around 100k. To avoid worrying about (fairly confusing) interest rates, we can use the forward from Deribit: 54,400 an...

> Assuming the default risk is really 4%, I find it interesting that the 10-year Treasury is only paying interest of 1.5%. https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y --> There are a lot of things I do not understand about investor behavior, and people buying up Treasury bonds at such a low yield is one of them.
@johnnycaffeine @MaciekK @JosephLamps
> This seems like the kind of thing that serious financial forecasters would be interested in - is there any way to infer this from eg the interest rates theyβre paying on US government loans, for example?
@holoman...

Including tests in this question seems like a bad thing for two reasons:
1. It doesn't get at the heart of the issue (will a nuke be detonated in a way which is bad news for humanity)
2. People looking at the forecast (which I assume will be much higher than the chances of an attacking nuke) are likely to be misled by a high forecast.
Anyway, from scanning wikipedia post-2000 there were tests in: 2004(?), 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2020(?)
Counting questionable tests has half, the base rate for this could be 7/21 ~33%. Seems a good way to sc...

My best guess at what this question is asking for historically
|GSS_Year|Female-Yes|Female-No|Female-NA|Female-%age|Male-Yes|Male-No|Male-NA|Male-%age|
|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|
|1988|165|14|12|7.8%|136|16|13|10.5%|
|1989|154|18|12|10.5%|124|23|8|15.6%|
|1990|131|14|7|9.7%|104|10|10|8.8%|
|1991|75|3|87|3.8%|46|9|85|16.4%|
|1993|144|15|7|9.4%|110|16|9|12.7%|
|1994|238|27|26|10.2%|185|26|19|12.3%|
|1996|280|21|24|7%|226|21|19|8.5%|
|1998|244|29|22|10.6%|175|34|33|16.3%|
|2000|216|23|38|9.6%|186|34|29|15.5%|
|2002|222|26|41|10.5%|195|2...

POSITIVELY

@(PeterHurford) Of course.
The probability of a random walk starting at 0 reaching a point \(x\) after time \(t \) with volatility \( \sigma \) is [given by](https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/12797/12046):
\[ \mathrm{erfc}\left( \frac{x}{\sqrt{2t \sigma^2}} \right) \]
To calculate \(\sigma\), I downloaded data from [CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) and looked at the daily closes.
I then took the 0-mean standard deviation of the daily log returns:
\[ \sigma^2 = \frac{1}{\text{num days}} \sum_{\text{all days}} \left ( \textrm{log} \le...

[This website](https://www.wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html#name1=Carlsen%2C+Magnus&name2=Nepomniachtchi%2C+Ian&first_move=player1&formula=logistic&best_of=14) gives a 77% chance to Carlsen for the first 14 games, 12% to Nepo and 10% chance of a tie (and hence tiebreakers). (Using current Elo ratings)
Using the same odds (per game) for the tiebreaks, Carlsen has an ~75% chance of winning the tiebreak. So call this 85% chance of retaining the title.
I think this method drastically underestimates the number of draws in World Championship matches. The last...

I'm sure I'm just embarrassing myself at this point, but despite all the evidence I think this is starting to look like a Metaculus special.
1. Cases in Scotland already peaked ~2.5 weeks ago. The latest wave started there around ~3 weeks earlier than in England.
2. Cases in the UK look like they are *starting* to peak. (Low confidence in this, but I can persuade myself they've already peaked)
3. Current case level is "just" sufficient to cause 100 deaths/day:
Currently cases are converting to deaths at a rate somewhere between 0.15 and 0.2%. This wo...

@Tamay This is going to resolve positive before it opens πππ

YOLO

I am tracking predictions/week and total predictions on MetaculusExtras

This comment was moved from *How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by December 31, 2023?* to this question group. Learn more about Question groups

@admins This resolves 1.28:
* One point if the report is mentioned in the English Wikipedia's section "In the news" on its main page. 0/1
* One point if the Google Trends interest in the topic of UFOs reaches at least 300% any prior level in the last 12 months, as determined using the current widget showing the last 12 months of interest on Google Trends. 1/1
* One point if a Reddit post regarding UAPs receives at least 150 thousand net upvotes, as measured by browsing /r/all and viewing the top posts of the last month. 0/1
* One point if President B...

The Court receives approximately 7,000-8,000 petitions for a writ of certiorari each Term. The Court grants and hears oral argument in about 80 cases.

That's a pretty brutal base rate

I've roughly got two methods for thinking about this.
[Since 1996](https://stats.areppim.com/stats/links_billionairexlists.htm), there has only been 1 year where a person has doubled the competition (Bill Gates 1999). (1/26 = 4%)
For Elon to achieve this, Tesla stock would need to (at least) double it's current level without Amazon increasing at all. [Option prices](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/options?p=TSLA&date=1674172800) give the chances of Tesla doubling ~3%.
I think both of these are probably overestimates:
- anyone, not just Musk ...