What fraction of active users will switch back to dark mode?
There's something fairly nasty about predicting maximums on Metaculus. The "correct" distribution is a mixture of discrete (probability we've already had the maximum) and continuous (probability the maximum is yet to come). (The distribution also tends to be very not-symmetric, which is always quite hard to predict using the Metaculus input).
@Tamay This is going to resolve positive before it opens 🚀🚀🚀
The Court receives approximately 7,000-8,000 petitions for a writ of certiorari each Term. The Court grants and hears oral argument in about 80 cases.
That's a pretty brutal base rate
"Did people simply fail to update their prediction?"
is usually the explanation
This is crazy volatile and I think @2e10e122 is correct to flag up crypto as a significant factor. (In the last crypto bull run, 60% of their donations were in crypto, and it remains their biggest year)
I just want to make sure I understand correctly - we're interested in money raised rather than implied IPO valuation?