What fraction of active users will switch back to dark mode?
Given Dobbs counts, worth noting FantasySCOTUS is currently forecasting a 6-3 reversal (ie this question resolving positive)
— edited by SimonM
There's something fairly nasty about predicting maximums on Metaculus. The "correct" distribution is a mixture of discrete (probability we've already had the maximum) and continuous (probability the maximum is yet to come). (The distribution also tends to be very not-symmetric, which is always quite hard to predict using the Metaculus input).
Because I keep having to check this:
@Tamay This is going to resolve positive before it opens 🚀🚀🚀
I am tracking predictions/week and total predictions on MetaculusExtras
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"Did people simply fail to update their prediction?"
is usually the explanation
The Court receives approximately 7,000-8,000 petitions for a writ of certiorari each Term. The Court grants and hears oral argument in about 80 cases.
That's a pretty brutal base rate