I only got 1 point from this resolution, having a final prediction at 99%. Seems a bit low.
I could not find any confirmation that these cows were actually infected with bovine bluetongue, but assuming these culling events count for the purpose of this question, we have a lower bound of 850+1610.
I wish Metaculus had a better system for assigning probabilities in discrete non-binary questions. I can imagine some (low-probability) proliferation scenarios where nuclear weapons disseminate to many countries, but currently I have not enough bins to represent that without "losing" a lot of probability mass to non-integer values.
@ugandamaximum One possibility that comes to mind is that they model a portion of the population becoming less willing to vaccinate if booster doses become recommended, as such recommendation would somehow imply a lesser effectivity per dose and more hassle to become “fully vaccinated”.
@MichaelA @admins I really think this question should be separated into two different ones: A binary "Any nuclear weapons used by 2050" and a conditional "Number of nuclear weapons used by 2050, if >0". It seems like precise forecasting on this subject is very important, but the current formulation loses a lot of information because of the frontier between 0 and 1 and the relative high probability of zero.
Given the distant closing date, would it be possible to resolve this question as ambiguous and open these two others?
Currently, the fully vaccinated percentage for the age group 12-15 is of 48.6%. It seems like there was some big update recently.
I like this change.
From what I understand, the new system will also apply to closed but unresolved questions. Would it be possible to avoid applying the new scoring method to old contests that relied on points? I'm thinking in particular of the Deep Learning round of the AI progress tournament, whose scoring also interacts with the Bayes Prize from the same tournament.
The lower end (1 detonation) should be closed, right?
The question is restricted to the approval of products for human consumption, right?
@RyanBeck I think so. At the end of the document it says that it terminates Seventh Amended Number Seventy-Two (2021) and Order of Public Health Emergency Nine, which includes the point I.A.2, whose subpoints b and g state the 6-foot distance restriction.
@Rexracer63 Note that the dashboard is currently showing only the numbers for confirmed hospitalizations. I think we should wait until we have a source that includes the pending hospitalizations.