To me, the low score here seems a bit like wishful thinking: "the West's plan is sanctions, so there must be some chance that it works!" But Cuba, Iran, and North Korea withstood sanctions for decades. So I am higher, at 85%.

I would be interested in forecasts of: - Will Russia invade Moldova before 2023? - Will Russia invade Georgia (beyond current borders) before 2023? - Will Russia invade an EU member before 2023? - Will Russia invade >3 countries before 2023? - Will NATO trigger Article 5 before 2023?

Tweeted by a reporter for the Israeli public broadcaster:

EU officials tell me: At this point Germany and Italy are the main opponents for disconnecting russia from swift and this "key to decision" depends on them. And they are pressured to agree.

Clearly, there are some things you don't want to publicly forecast, or comment on, because they violate privacy, or contain infohazards, e.g. "is 0123 Larry Page's phone number?", "Is person X homosexual?", "If deployed, would procedure Z constitute a bioweapon", and so on. On the other hand, sites like Metaculus are made great by their spirit of free inquiry, which must be preserved. On balance, I think Metaculus moderators should, in their guidelines [[]] prohibit sharing info that they expect to be...

If you buy into the published then retracted "official Russian figure" of 9861 dead Russian servicemen from Komsomolskaya Pravda, then you might think that another 5k Russian contractors, and 5k Ukrainian fighters have already died [Edit: and 5k Ukrainian civilians] - in three and a half weeks. So unless a permanent peace is reached in the next 1-2 months, it seems like there will sadly be more than 50k fatalities. 77%.

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If you look at [this map](, already about 2/3 of all countries have condemned the invasion: ~22 in Eastern Europe, ~27 in Western europe, ~30 from LatAm and Carribean, ~20 from Africa, and ~30 from the Asia Pacific. If all these countries vote accordingly, that would give exactly the needed 129. And there are still dozens of "swing vote" countries yet to announce their positions. So is this not a 90% "Yes" (edit a 90% chance of positive resolution)? Wil...

Also, it's sad to say, but there probably should be questions regarding 250k and 500k fatalities.

An endorsement from Obama's Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical & Biological Defense Programs. Could usefully highlight Carrick's credentials relating to nuclear and biorisk issues that the US is currently facing.

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@DanielFilan Compare my previous comment on the 2023 question: "Would it perhaps be more intuitive / less tedious to forecast the gdp growth as a percentage?"

To me (a non-military expert), the rate of advancement over the last three days (Wikipedia maps) and the relatively small size of these cities suggests a larger than 75% chance. 82%.

Having said all that, is there a large and direct harm here? Probably not, since Metaculus commenters are only sharing public information, and are not even drawing much attention to it either.

According to his rival, Salinas, Carrick has receieved $1M of support from the House Majority PAC:…

Would it perhaps be more intuitive / less tedious to forecast the gdp growth as a percentage? Just a thought.

I would be interested in forecasts of the China / India GDP ratio too.

It would be useful to have a question on whether the US imposes a NFZ - this may be several times likelier than NATO as a whole doing it.

A lot has happened to reinforce this in the last couple of days: * The head of RU military intelligence said RU seeks to split Ukraine * Reports of RU forces NE of Ukraine destroying bridges and retreating * Mayor of Slavutich announcing that is cleared of RU forces. NNE of Kiev * Rudnitske village being possibly retaken E of Kiev

@ugandamaximum I've edited to clarify that I'm not saying you need that exact wording (because I don't have detailed understanding of Metaculus' moderation situation). Rather I'm promoting a general principle that you need to exclude big infohazards somehow. The alternative to making a rule preemptively is to wait until people say terrible things and then to make up a rule to deal with it at that time, which is more draconian in some ways.