Don't know how long after that we can expect before SpaceX receives a permit, but initially this sure makes it seem like an orbital launch before the end of the year is possible.
Has there been an official ruling from @admins on whether the Mississippi ban satisfies 1.3? I think we could use some clarity here. In my view the Mississippi ban satisfies the spirit of the question but doesn't meet any of the resolution criteria.
The variant proportions pages has been revised, now the week ending December 18 shows 22.5% and the week ending on the 25th shows 58.6%.
@emilowk The whole question is kind of confusing since Roe isn't really the relevant precedent anymore. Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992) established a different framework for abortion than what was used in Roe, though still upheld the right to abortion established in Roe.
A few days ago I submitted another question which I think more clearly gets at the question of whether abortion rights will be reduced, hopefully moderators will approve it in the coming weeks.
I put together some plots at this link for this and the other two related questions using the VDH data. The one dose plot looks like it matches so I'm updating based on that one.
@RyanBeck ah that's what I get for not reading the article first
No draft decision in the modern history of the court has been disclosed publicly while a case was still pending. The unprecedented revelation is bound to intensify the debate over what was already the most controversial case on the docket this term.
Guessing this has been mentioned before but when a question resolves I'd like to see how many points the average and median forecaster on the question earned as well as how many points the metaculus prediction would have earned.
@jutah181 I like this perspective, thanks for sharing it. Personally I do think a lot of the value in Metaculus is as a news alternate or a way to strip a lot of the noise out of the news and focus more on the signal. Less fluff, more substance, and better calibrated assessments of current events. I think some recent changes to the Metaculus platform have been a shift in the direction of Metaculus as a source of news/information and I think it's a good direction to move toward.
@Joker the question resolves positively if he's charged, there doesn't have to actually be a trial.
Put together a spreadsheet to tabulate and plot monthly cases. So far September is the highest for cases and hospitalizations, October is the highest for deaths.
@w.aldred the process takes some time and only three countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine) have declared their desire to join NATO. B&H and Georgia have both been in the process for some time already and it sounds like they still have more reforms to go. So I think these three are the most likely candidates as other countries haven't begun the process.