Found this really useful [wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_nuclear_weapons_stockpiles_and_nuclear_tests_by_country) showing stockpiles at roughly 5 year intervals. Looks like it's based on kind of a mishmash of sources and 2020 numbers are using [SIPRI as the source](https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/nuclear-weapon-modernization-continues-outlook-arms-control-bleak-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now). But I feel it should be useful for overall trends. Judging from the above page here's my guess at probabilities of increasing...

@EvanHarper what's a good forecasting question without a healthy dose of drama?

Bedford adds here that he thinks the reason is that Omicron cases are getting submitted to the database faster than Delta are.

— edited by RyanBeck

Trying to figure out how a Russian intervention might play out, there are definitely a lot of parallels to the war with Georgia (as some other commenters have mentioned as well). According to the [Wikipedia article about the Russo-Georgian war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War): >Dmitry Rogozin, Russian ambassador to NATO, hinted that Georgia's aspiration to become a NATO member would cause Russia to support the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The [section on the prelude to the war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgi...

The FAA just released its draft environmental assessment with the public comment period ending October 18th.

Don't know how long after that we can expect before SpaceX receives a permit, but initially this sure makes it seem like an orbital launch before the end of the year is possible.

Has there been an official ruling from @admins on whether the Mississippi ban satisfies 1.3? I think we could use some clarity here. In my view the Mississippi ban satisfies the spirit of the question but doesn't meet any of the resolution criteria.

Kind of surprised at the pessimism. Maybe I'm being too optimistic at only a 33% chance of <100 (I'm assuming that scenario is one where the backing company goes out of business and prospera dissolves) but to me there's demand for this sort of thing and this seems to me like something where the company and investors would treat this as a pet project they're personally invested in. I would also expect a kind of a gap between <100 and the higher numbers. If it fails it would be likely to be less than 100 and if it is still around in 2035 it seems like it w...

@emilowk The whole question is kind of confusing since Roe isn't really the relevant precedent anymore. Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992) established a different framework for abortion than what was used in Roe, though still upheld the right to abortion established in Roe.

A few days ago I submitted another question which I think more clearly gets at the question of whether abortion rights will be reduced, hopefully moderators will approve it in the coming weeks.

I put together some plots at this link for this and the other two related questions using the VDH data. The one dose plot looks like it matches so I'm updating based on that one.

Found this [interesting article on the ACLU website from June of this year](https://www.aclu.org/news/civil-liberties/defending-speech-we-hate/) elaborating on ACLU's views when their support for free speech is in tension with their support for civil rights and civil liberties. Notably it points out the ACLU filed an amicus brief defending anti-semitic protestors as recently as March of 2020. However I'm curious if the balance between freedom of speech and equality varies among state chapters enough that a "rogue" state chapter could end up resolving th...

@RyanBeck ah that's what I get for not reading the article first

No draft decision in the modern history of the court has been disclosed publicly while a case was still pending. The unprecedented revelation is bound to intensify the debate over what was already the most controversial case on the docket this term.

Either I am very confused, or the 1st Quarter 2021 Virginia Employment Indicators report has a mistake in it for leisure and hospitality. The [4th Quarter 2020 report](https://virginiaworks.com/_docs/Publications/LMI-Publications/Employment-Indicators/PDF/2020-4th-Quarter-Employment-Indicators.pdf) shows December 2020 at 335,600. Meanwhile eyeballing the graph from the [1st Quarter 2021 report](https://virginiaworks.com/_docs/Publications/LMI-Publications/Employment-Indicators/PDF/2021_1stQuarterEmploymentIndicators.pdf) shows December 2020 at around 280...

Guessing this has been mentioned before but when a question resolves I'd like to see how many points the average and median forecaster on the question earned as well as how many points the metaculus prediction would have earned.

[VOA News: UN Security Council Votes for Special General Assembly Session on Ukraine](https://www.voanews.com/a/6462533.html) >“These are issues that affect all member states, and now, in the General Assembly, they can all make their voices heard on Russia’s war of choice,” Thomas-Greenfield said. “We will then vote on a resolution that will hold Russia to account for its indefensible actions and for its violations of the U.N. Charter.” >She said that a vote on a draft resolution is not likely before at least Wednesday. >“The U.N. General Assembly eme...
It's interesting that the community [gives a probability of the top supercomputer having over 400 exaflops in 2030 ~15% chance](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/), while for this question the community gives the sum of all 500 of the computers ~8% chance of exceeding 400 exaflops. I looked at this a couple ways. First I fit a curve, which projecting forward comes up with about 82 exaflops. Then I compared 20% growth and 60% growth from the June 2020 numbers, the growth range based on the highs and lo...

@jutah181 I like this perspective, thanks for sharing it. Personally I do think a lot of the value in Metaculus is as a news alternate or a way to strip a lot of the noise out of the news and focus more on the signal. Less fluff, more substance, and better calibrated assessments of current events. I think some recent changes to the Metaculus platform have been a shift in the direction of Metaculus as a source of news/information and I think it's a good direction to move toward.

Put together a spreadsheet to tabulate and plot monthly cases. So far September is the highest for cases and hospitalizations, October is the highest for deaths.

@w.aldred the process takes some time and only three countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine) have declared their desire to join NATO. B&H and Georgia have both been in the process for some time already and it sounds like they still have more reforms to go. So I think these three are the most likely candidates as other countries haven't begun the process.