I really wish there was an option for discrete answers, at least on numerical questions. The current method is kind of frustrating and I feel like the points system breaks down and responses become non-intuitive. For example, on [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7628/-va-4-yr-colleges-requiring-covid-vaccine/) there are 16 discrete possibilities, 0 through 15. If I were forecasting this I would put somewhere around 55% probability on 14, 40% on 15, and 1 to 2% or so on each of 11, 12, and 13. In trying to get somewhere close to that usi...

Just wanted to say thanks for running this set of challenges and putting these questions together. I'd seen a few AI questions previously and passed on them since I know very little about AI, but the challenge format (and cash incentive) motivated me to dive in and research them. I've definitely learned some cool stuff I had no idea about before from researching some of the questions and it's gotten me more excited about future AI and computing progress.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts here in this fortified essay, and thanks for providing falsifiable forecasts. I have a lot of respect for anyone willing to do that publicly, and I'd love to see more people do this. I have some thoughts on your essay which I've included below. #Government Debt Theory I take the transitory view. To me it seems like there's more going on here than can be explained by the Government Debt Theory. For example, prior to 2021 core CPI inflation [hadn't risen above 2.5% for long in the last 20 years](https://fred.stlouisfed...
It would be nice if there was a way to set a forecast before a question is open. I think a nice way for this to work would be if you could save your forecast while a question is in upcoming, and if you do that you get an email when the question opens asking if you want to officially submit your forecast. This way you can check and see if there have been any edits to the question first, and for tournaments which have a longer upcoming period you can save yourself some time by setting forecasts in the upcoming period and then submitting them more quickly o...

@Sylvain this is a really cool idea, I'm excited to see how it plays out. For any candidates, I'm interested to hear specific ideas or thoughts on how the questions and crowd forecasts can be translated into trades!

@EvanHarper what's a good forecasting question without a healthy dose of drama?

Bedford adds here that he thinks the reason is that Omicron cases are getting submitted to the database faster than Delta are.

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The FAA just released its draft environmental assessment with the public comment period ending October 18th.

Don't know how long after that we can expect before SpaceX receives a permit, but initially this sure makes it seem like an orbital launch before the end of the year is possible.

Has there been an official ruling from @admins on whether the Mississippi ban satisfies 1.3? I think we could use some clarity here. In my view the Mississippi ban satisfies the spirit of the question but doesn't meet any of the resolution criteria.

@emilowk The whole question is kind of confusing since Roe isn't really the relevant precedent anymore. Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992) established a different framework for abortion than what was used in Roe, though still upheld the right to abortion established in Roe.

A few days ago I submitted another question which I think more clearly gets at the question of whether abortion rights will be reduced, hopefully moderators will approve it in the coming weeks.

I put together some plots at this link for this and the other two related questions using the VDH data. The one dose plot looks like it matches so I'm updating based on that one.

Found this [interesting article on the ACLU website from June of this year](https://www.aclu.org/news/civil-liberties/defending-speech-we-hate/) elaborating on ACLU's views when their support for free speech is in tension with their support for civil rights and civil liberties. Notably it points out the ACLU filed an amicus brief defending anti-semitic protestors as recently as March of 2020. However I'm curious if the balance between freedom of speech and equality varies among state chapters enough that a "rogue" state chapter could end up resolving th...
Either I am very confused, or the 1st Quarter 2021 Virginia Employment Indicators report has a mistake in it for leisure and hospitality. The [4th Quarter 2020 report](https://virginiaworks.com/_docs/Publications/LMI-Publications/Employment-Indicators/PDF/2020-4th-Quarter-Employment-Indicators.pdf) shows December 2020 at 335,600. Meanwhile eyeballing the graph from the [1st Quarter 2021 report](https://virginiaworks.com/_docs/Publications/LMI-Publications/Employment-Indicators/PDF/2021_1stQuarterEmploymentIndicators.pdf) shows December 2020 at around 280...

Guessing this has been mentioned before but when a question resolves I'd like to see how many points the average and median forecaster on the question earned as well as how many points the metaculus prediction would have earned.

It's interesting that the community [gives a probability of the top supercomputer having over 400 exaflops in 2030 ~15% chance](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/), while for this question the community gives the sum of all 500 of the computers ~8% chance of exceeding 400 exaflops. I looked at this a couple ways. First I fit a curve, which projecting forward comes up with about 82 exaflops. Then I compared 20% growth and 60% growth from the June 2020 numbers, the growth range based on the highs and lo...

Put together a spreadsheet to tabulate and plot monthly cases. So far September is the highest for cases and hospitalizations, October is the highest for deaths.

@w.aldred the process takes some time and only three countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Ukraine) have declared their desire to join NATO. B&H and Georgia have both been in the process for some time already and it sounds like they still have more reforms to go. So I think these three are the most likely candidates as other countries haven't begun the process.

@SimonM Since the BLS rounds to one decimal place I've been putting spikes on the decimal place I think are most likely and a regular distribution to cover the rest. My guess is the users the Metaculus prediction assigns the most weight to are doing the same.