I really wish there was an option for discrete answers, at least on numerical questions. The current method is kind of frustrating and I feel like the points system breaks down and responses become non-intuitive. For example, on [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7628/-va-4-yr-colleges-requiring-covid-vaccine/) there are 16 discrete possibilities, 0 through 15. If I were forecasting this I would put somewhere around 55% probability on 14, 40% on 15, and 1 to 2% or so on each of 11, 12, and 13. In trying to get somewhere close to that usi...

Just wanted to say thanks for running this set of challenges and putting these questions together. I'd seen a few AI questions previously and passed on them since I know very little about AI, but the challenge format (and cash incentive) motivated me to dive in and research them. I've definitely learned some cool stuff I had no idea about before from researching some of the questions and it's gotten me more excited about future AI and computing progress.

@Sylvain this is a really cool idea, I'm excited to see how it plays out. For any candidates, I'm interested to hear specific ideas or thoughts on how the questions and crowd forecasts can be translated into trades!

Thank you for sharing your thoughts here in this fortified essay, and thanks for providing falsifiable forecasts. I have a lot of respect for anyone willing to do that publicly, and I'd love to see more people do this. I have some thoughts on your essay which I've included below. #Government Debt Theory I take the transitory view. To me it seems like there's more going on here than can be explained by the Government Debt Theory. For example, prior to 2021 core CPI inflation [hadn't risen above 2.5% for long in the last 20 years](https://fred.stlouisfed...

The FAA just released its draft environmental assessment with the public comment period ending October 18th.

Don't know how long after that we can expect before SpaceX receives a permit, but initially this sure makes it seem like an orbital launch before the end of the year is possible.

I put together some plots at this link for this and the other two related questions using the VDH data. The one dose plot looks like it matches so I'm updating based on that one.

Either I am very confused, or the 1st Quarter 2021 Virginia Employment Indicators report has a mistake in it for leisure and hospitality. The [4th Quarter 2020 report](https://virginiaworks.com/_docs/Publications/LMI-Publications/Employment-Indicators/PDF/2020-4th-Quarter-Employment-Indicators.pdf) shows December 2020 at 335,600. Meanwhile eyeballing the graph from the [1st Quarter 2021 report](https://virginiaworks.com/_docs/Publications/LMI-Publications/Employment-Indicators/PDF/2021_1stQuarterEmploymentIndicators.pdf) shows December 2020 at around 280...

Guessing this has been mentioned before but when a question resolves I'd like to see how many points the average and median forecaster on the question earned as well as how many points the metaculus prediction would have earned.

@SimonM Since the BLS rounds to one decimal place I've been putting spikes on the decimal place I think are most likely and a regular distribution to cover the rest. My guess is the users the Metaculus prediction assigns the most weight to are doing the same.

Kind of surprised at the pessimism. Maybe I'm being too optimistic at only a 33% chance of <100 (I'm assuming that scenario is one where the backing company goes out of business and prospera dissolves) but to me there's demand for this sort of thing and this seems to me like something where the company and investors would treat this as a pet project they're personally invested in. I would also expect a kind of a gap between <100 and the higher numbers. If it fails it would be likely to be less than 100 and if it is still around in 2035 it seems like it w...

@MaciekK @Sylvain you can also edit the FRED graph in their menu to change the units so that it automatically provides the percent change instead of just the index. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=EESA

— edited by RyanBeck

@(Tamay) Thanks for fixing that. Not to bug you too much but I do wonder if the wrong series measure is being used here. Matt didn't specify in his post what measure he was using which makes it difficult to tell, but "monthly year-on-year core CPI growth" doesn't seem to me to be satisfied by using "compounded annual rate of change". That one appears to be month-over-month, and it looks like it's factored up by 12 (plus some adjustment for compounding I assume?) to annualize it. I wonder if using ["percent change from a year ago"](https://fred.stlouisfe...

I'm a noob to Metaculus and have a couple questions. How do you pronounce Metaculus, and what does it mean or where did the name come from?

Some factors influencing my prediction: * The chart at the bottom of [this blog post](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2021/04/30/covid-19-health-and-disease-disparities-by-race-and-ethnicity-in-virginia-march-update/) shows that minority rates have been rising, and the rate among hispanics quickly rose to 1.0. * Surveys I've seen [like this one](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/dashboard/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-dashboard/) show greater hesitancy among the black population. However that survey also shows the black population has a...

Here's GDP on an annual basis, which is what the annual growth percentages are based on. To exceed 4.127% growth, 2021 GDP would have to be 19,182 billions of 2012 dollars. 2019 was 19,091, so it has to be 0.48% higher than 2019.

Looking at the quarterly numbers, Q4 2020 was 18,780 so we're already getting decently close to getting back to 2019 levels at the end of 2020, and I think there's a high chance economic activity really jumps up as most of the population gets vaccinated.

— edited by RyanBeck

Overall after using the redesign for a few days I think it's great (on both mobile and desktop, my typical use is about 50/50). I got started on Metaculus this year, so maybe I haven't had as much time to get attached to it as other users have, but I've always thought the retro/forum-like design looked a little dated and made getting started a little more daunting. I was aware of Metaculus for some time before I signed up and actually started forecasting, and though I don't remember exactly why I wasn't drawn in earlier I'm thinking the design might have...

This is really interesting and informative, thanks for sharing this essay. Due to the existence of so many separatist movements I wonder if a question on whether Nigeria will break up within the next 5 years or X years might be interesting.

@Sylvain the resolution criteria specify that the preliminary value should be used so I think it should resolve as 70.2.