Just wanted to say thanks for running this set of challenges and putting these questions together. I'd seen a few AI questions previously and passed on them since I know very little about AI, but the challenge format (and cash incentive) motivated me to dive in and research them. I've definitely learned some cool stuff I had no idea about before from researching some of the questions and it's gotten me more excited about future AI and computing progress.
@Sylvain this is a really cool idea, I'm excited to see how it plays out. For any candidates, I'm interested to hear specific ideas or thoughts on how the questions and crowd forecasts can be translated into trades!
Don't know how long after that we can expect before SpaceX receives a permit, but initially this sure makes it seem like an orbital launch before the end of the year is possible.
I put together some plots at this link for this and the other two related questions using the VDH data. The one dose plot looks like it matches so I'm updating based on that one.
Guessing this has been mentioned before but when a question resolves I'd like to see how many points the average and median forecaster on the question earned as well as how many points the metaculus prediction would have earned.
@SimonM Since the BLS rounds to one decimal place I've been putting spikes on the decimal place I think are most likely and a regular distribution to cover the rest. My guess is the users the Metaculus prediction assigns the most weight to are doing the same.
I'm a noob to Metaculus and have a couple questions. How do you pronounce Metaculus, and what does it mean or where did the name come from?
Here's GDP on an annual basis, which is what the annual growth percentages are based on. To exceed 4.127% growth, 2021 GDP would have to be 19,182 billions of 2012 dollars. 2019 was 19,091, so it has to be 0.48% higher than 2019.
Looking at the quarterly numbers, Q4 2020 was 18,780 so we're already getting decently close to getting back to 2019 levels at the end of 2020, and I think there's a high chance economic activity really jumps up as most of the population gets vaccinated.
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This is really interesting and informative, thanks for sharing this essay. Due to the existence of so many separatist movements I wonder if a question on whether Nigeria will break up within the next 5 years or X years might be interesting.
@Sylvain the resolution criteria specify that the preliminary value should be used so I think it should resolve as 70.2.