This will probably be resolved before opening
Now that russia started drafting civilian people on occupied territories to their ranks due to "mobilization" I wonder how this influences this question. Are mobilized people counted as military deaths or civilian?
Lowering my prediction to 6% because the russian defense ministry declared today that "the phase 1 is complete" whatever that means and that their primary intentions are to occupy the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Meaning they will move most of the forces there and likely abandon other directions
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@nextbigfuture these 2 deaths are neither police nor military. IMO they don't count towards the number mentioned in the question because the question mentions "forces" explicitly
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@Sylvain Just wondering, were the poisonings of Skripals officially recognized as usage of chemical weapons by the same criteria as described in this question?
I was also under impression that here it was meant the usage as a weapon of mass destruction - and I think this is what was meant by Biden (IIRC) when he threatened to involve NATO in case russia uses chemical weapons in Ukraine, not just targeted poisonings.
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@cmeinel Agreed. I would vote closing this question as ambiguous because of that.
The Russian defense ministry declared that they want to switch to Donetsk and Lugansk - meaning that they don't think they have forces to occupy any of the big cities. Their only two achievements are Mariupol which still holds and Kherson which despite presence of russian military still declares itself Ukrainian.
@Jgalt If you add 19000 russian casualties (according to the UA), this is already 40000. And we're nowhere close to the peace agreement. I'm raising my prediction to 97%
@michal_dubrawski this makes me think, ATACMS will never make it to Ukraine and instead other long-range systems will be supplied
@RuslanBes My current bet is 70%. Partly because they could've lied and plan to do a full-scale mobilization already in April. Partly because they might change their plans. Partly because by June they might see that this plan won't work.
30% for either this plan will work, or they won't need so many people (e.g. Ukrainian counter offensive will be be much weaker than they expected and they decide they can handle it with current forces)
@perdana according to the rules the question should resolve positively. The Spirit of Ukraine is not a person.
@ForkLeaf Now also confirmed by the Belgorod governor