I’m beginning to wonder if Russia will control Moscow in June. Though, I’m still around 40% in case it’s a misinformation campaign before Russia ups the ante. I’m not sure what they have left other than raw numbers and brute force.

@schkolne I like the new site. It just takes some getting used to.

@CaptchaSamurai I too have noticed a lot of new accounts. I’m not sure every new person understands what we do on this site. It’s not social media.

@rQ9J-gBBv+sm there is a difference between closed and resolved on this site.

I made some predictions where I would get points either way, and now I can possibly lose points. I certainly would have made different predictions. I know they’re just internet points, but it’s seems a bit unfair to change the scoring rules after you’ve closed the question. I suppose it will shake itself out eventually, but I’m not going to be looking forward to resolving questions for the next two months.

@moderators Good Morning. The discussion in this thread is going off topic a bit. See below. Thanks

In Old Metaculus, when you viewed list of questions, you could see possible range of points or (points won/lost for resolved questions). That functionality would be helpful.

So the IMF got back to me and said it was dependent on other countries before they could publish. That didn’t explain why they are able to publish the 3-country average but not the 3 underlying prices. They are still updating their data portal which might have something to do with it. They referred me to someone else at IMF so the hunt continues. ⛽️

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@Cato you don’t have to be an elected representative to be Speaker of the House.

Per Relief Web another source

“ According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), 600,000 additional people were internally displaced in the first 17 days of April, bringing the total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) to 7.7 million. In total, nearly 12.8 million have been displaced internally or across borders since 24 February.”

12.8-7.7= 5.1 Million

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4,278,789 Last updated 05 Apr 2022

Will Russia still control Moscow by 2023? Seriously. It is unlikely event will unfold that quickly, but civil wars can be instigated by apparent weakness. Still around 37% just in case it’s a misinformation campaign before Putin brings in more troops.

@AlyssaStevens I would think if Russia were restricting emigration, it would be huge news (The Iron Curtain II ). I don’t see much more than the reports mentioned below but not much since.

@admins Russia withdraws from Kyiv Airport per CNN.


Should resolve negative.


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