Probably too late, but I’m not big fan of the down arrow for comments. A lack of positive likes sends a message just as much as down arrows without looking as negative.

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Is there a way to delete your comments other than reposting it as blank?

Here’s an article about a possible origin. Wildlife farms in southern China; not a lab.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/202…

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@MetaculusOutlooks thanks for your work. It’s sometimes the best part of my day.

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@JohnMcConnaughey I’m with you. I didn’t read the fine print. I’d like to withdraw my prediction. I re-predicted to minimize the impact either way, but I think that might defeat the original purpose of the question. It should have just resolved ambiguously if either threshold wasn’t reached.

There’s a lot less capacity with 4 engine jet retirements which should translate into more flights.

Here’s one story from 3/16/21 about teachers not being able to get the vaccine. I can’t find any stories after that date. Technically, there seems to be no credible news source stating teachers can’t get vaccines, so this should resolve positively (or perhaps ambiguously.)

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/teachers-work-m…

— edited by Rexracer63 changed resolve negatively to resolve positively

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Does anyone think the name Netanyahu is Hebrew for Teflon?

I hope so. I’d like to think Metaculus becomes a valuable, trusted prediction platform.

Does anybody think predicting will be easier under a Biden administration? Or is the presidency irrelevant to predicting?

Add LinkedIn link in addition to Facebook, Twitter and Reddit.

J&J was approved but is now suspended. It should still count though?

@(wobblybobby) I can estimate. There are about 6100 users with positive scores. However 4,500 of those are level 1 and 2. A random look at those shows minimal predictions from them. I consider most of them dormant. I don’t know how many zero and negative point users there are. That leaves around 1600 users level 3 and above. I would say that is the maximum number of active users. It’s probably less than that as 800 of those are level 3, but I assume level 3 means you at least stuck around for a while as opposed to just making a few predictions. ...

In the United States, more than 165 million people – about 49.7% of the population – has received at least one dose of vaccine, and nearly 132 million people – about 39.7% of the population – are fully vaccinated, CDC data shows.

I extended the tail of my distribution out past April 25, 2021 (11%) because I keep getting conflicting information. One minute they’re are going to get it out during a high tide, the next minute they have no idea when they will move it.

@chrisjbillingtonok. I misread the question. Still, banning them for trying to make money (vs over throwing the government) would bring some legal scrutiny nobody wants. The SEC is going to have good time untangling this mess.