Probably too late, but I’m not big fan of the down arrow for comments. A lack of positive likes sends a message just as much as down arrows without looking as negative.

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I’m sorry. I don’t mean to guilt anybody. But as a favor to me, a former naval officer, can we not comment on this thread for 24 hours. It was a bad day.

This is just a general recommendation for forecasters. I don’t pester mods or admin on the weekend or holidays. Questions and resolutions can wait. Once you ping admin for resolution and they don’t respond, wait at least a week. They have other duties. Try to post link to site with resolution data if you can. I can’t tell people to be nice, but this site is about predicting what you think will happen, not what you want. (I want zero COVID deaths, but there will be x number; I wanted Biden to win, but I had Trump at around 45%, I don’t like mask mandat...

In the words of Daffy Duck, “Ho ho. Very funny. Ha ha. It is to laugh.”

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@rappatoni Ok first. They’re just internet points, so don’t panic.

  1. When predicting, make sure you use Total Available vs Current.
  2. Pick a percentage where the positive points are about even.

  3. You’ll get an email 24 hours before close. You can adjust then to make sure you can minimize any damage and maybe gain a few points.

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If Russia has “truly” changed its war aim to just the Donbas Region, the likelihood of Belarus interceding should drop precipitously. I’m still around 35%, but if I see Russia no longer taking the offensive against Kyiv and the like, I will lower my estimate by May.

@admins a quick thank you to the admins for resolving so many questions so fast in the last few days, and most of it on a holiday weekend. I thought it would take a week or ten days to get through the end of the year back log. 👏

@nobody521 per the fine print, any Olympic events held anywhere and called the Olympics counts.

It’s a very low bar, but I think it counts as having occurred.

Short of some medical condition, I can’t see President Biden making that decision this year. Announcing before midterms signals failure. After the mid-terms maybe, which is about a seven week window in 2022. I would think he would want some time to process how the midterms went. If he is going to not run, I would think he would announce it sometime in early 2023 to give candidates time to raise money and campaign. Still around 20% for me.

@lucyrock759 I appreciate that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, but this is almost a duplicate of my previous comment of July 11. If you’re going to copy, at least get the grammar and punctuation correct. I work hard at that.

Is there a way to delete your comments other than reposting it as blank?

@Grogu-Daveinsea you’re about to learn about truncation. The question resolved before closing, so you don’t get all the points. We’ve all been there.

President resigns

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62160227

This should resolve soon after July 21, 2022; 9 AM PDT.

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I would like to be able to sort or filter between continuous and discrete questions.

Here’s an article about a possible origin. Wildlife farms in southern China; not a lab.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/202…

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@MetaculusOutlooks thanks for your work. It’s sometimes the best part of my day.

@Cato you don’t have to be an elected representative to be Speaker of the House.