There's an assumption in your logic.

Agree that more drivers on the road benefits Tesla's autopilot algorithm. Disagree that increasing deliveries indicates algorithmic progress.

Tesla is fighting for its life rn. What used to be priority applications, like self-driving compatibility, are now back-burner issues. The resources that should be funding driver-learning are instead propping up manufacturing and QA.

Frauds can take a long time to unravel, so while this should resolve negatively, I don't think it will, unless Metaculus is willing to update its resolution to the "true" state of the world once the full extent of the fraud is well-known. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3439013-analysts-buzz-teslas-big-reveals As commenter Amos Tuck writes: 1. Layoffs. 2. Price cuts. 3. CFO quits. * 4. General Counsel quits. ** 5. Consumer Reports revokes Model 3 recommendation. 6. SEC holds Musk in contempt. 7. Musk admits Tesla will start losing money again. 8....

@Jotto wrote:

This is an interesting topic to me.

From what I've read about information scoring (not much), log scoring is usually more useful...

Log score would be fine, too.

I'm sure the website designers could make a simple slider adjuster on the Ranking page so that people can view their preference (the same way many websites let you switch between metric/sae measurements).

I think two things are true: 1. This is the most virulent disease that humanity has experienced in decades or centuries. 2. The scale of China's coordinated efforts to stop the spread of the virus are unprecedented and, frankly, awe-inspiring. It's a strange thing to be thankful that this outbreak occurred in the one place on earth where such a coordinated response could be so quickly commanded and enforced. [But maybe it's no accident.](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view). I am cautiously optimistic that the di...

@tenthkrige wrote:

Opioids vs LFPR paper:

Our estimates imply that prescription opioids can account for 44 percent of the realized national decrease in men's labor force participation between 2001 and 2015.

Astonishing! That is a huge number, and with some evidence of causality. Wow.

Tiananmen Square forced China to engage in decades worth of censorship.

Do they really want to repeat that mistake?


It does seem that way. Wouldn't it be nice to test it? Our estimates may be different than the large market actors with enormously vested interests in the financial system.

I suggest an appeal process be instituted for controversial resolutions.

Maybe there's some debate & discussion value to me posting impassioned screeds in question comment sections, but it'd probably be healthier for everyone if I can yell into a void and have a panel of voidlings tell me I'm either persuasive or not.


How the world can change in three weeks...

Biden had zero get-out-the-vote effort in multiple states that he just crushed by 20+ points.

My model of the world was deeply flawed.

I have updated significantly downward on this question,

significantly upward on Biden as the nominee, and

significantly upward on Trump winning a 2nd term.


Incarcerated means to be legally held against one's will.

Jail is where people are held for sentences of 1 yr or less or for people awaiting arraignment, trial, sentencing, or a probation revocation.

Prison is where people are held for sentences of 1 yr or more following an adjudication of guilt or parole violation.


Are you kidding? If the GOP votes to remove Trump, their party is finished. He owns their voters now. They're not going to commit political suicide.

Clownshoes won't last longer than 4 years, and probably not more than 18 months.

I don't think they can ever admit this, and will actively work to prevent something like this from happening.


I think you can credibly argue that the Senate is composed of 101 members, 51 of whom are Democrats.

@(KrisMoore) wrote: > But if Xinhua were willing to lie about this, I would expect them to say the opposite of what the report says: I think the government would have a good incentive to *not* confirm the experiment and claim it was a hoax, given how shoddily it was done (see my comment below) and the ethical breaches involved, which are egregious They've punished the scientist to appease ethicists, but they haven't allowed anyone to audit the results. Chinese officials are testing the waters. They want to edit genomes, but they don't want to be caug...

I also don't believe for a second that it's a coincidence that the "HIV cure" just happens to be a known genetic-edit to increase intelligence.

It's the perfect rationalization to try, and it affects the thing Chinese officials are most likely aiming to select for in their burgeoning eugenics programs.

Inflation will probably remain low for a couple years.


Excellent comment. I also happen to agree with it.