I'm very ambiguous as to whether the $1B is for a 100km-radius locale or aggregated across the whole United States, and that criteria significantly impacts my forecast. Plz advise.

The 100km-radius limitation seems to apply to all 3 prongs of the test, but I would like to confirm.

— edited by Reprisal


Bloomberg also called Sanders a "communist" and opened the door for Sanders to claim that Bloomberg's workers deserved more of his billions for helping him build his company. Bloomberg just smirked and nodded in apparent agreement! Astonishing concession!

Trump's electorate can't win 50% of the EC vote any longer.

"...as a medical countermeasure to COVID-19."

This implies scientifically demonstrated effectiveness imo.

Compassionate use is "we have no idea, but you're asking for it, and we don't think it will kill you."


Missing the forest for the trees, imho.

It doesn't matter how close to the cliff's edge Floyd walked himself with his behavior and consumption of narcotics. It's easy to imagine that if the officer had administered Narcan rather than a knee to the throat, Floyd might still live.


The data also suggest that people profess to care about this more than the amount revealed by their voting preferences.

This is extremely difficult for me to believe. Prior attempts in less complex organisms have met with embryo failures early in gestation. That + no peer editing + Chinese biologist (history of fabrication) + no verification offered all screams bullsh*t.


Murder and Manslaughter are both flavors of homicide. I forecasted on the assumption that Manslaughter would trigger a positive resolution, fwiw.

If this is published, it will be in spite of the blog not being readily available, so I think the author will include the identity as their article hook to drive clicks and then rationalize the decision behind company policy.

I wonder what datscilly predicted here ;)

@(Sylvain) Sanders is going to win the Democratic nomination. When he does, he will contest the same battle-ground states indicated in the above comment. Those battle-ground states are already demonstrating strong blue vs. red preferences, regardless of the nominee. PA and MI are worth substantially more than WI, and PA and MI are leaning blue rather than red, like WI. Which means that the democratic nominee has an advantage. Which means Sanders has an advantage. You're not the first person here to translate a disagreement into a claim that th...

@Uncle Jeff

I'm inclined to agree. Q1 and Q2 will trigger an official recession, and the definition of "contraction" here is important. It's not about when we're back to trend, it's about when there's a sign change.

— edited by Reprisal

Christie's, the auction house, described Leonardo Da Vinci's Salvator Mundi as "the biggest discovery of the 21st century."

They're posturing to some extent, but they're also not entirely wrong. Value accordingly, imho.

Why care about points? If you were right, it goes toward the real prize: your Brier Score.


A naval blockade feels more likely, and wouldn't trigger resolution here or quite as much ire in the international community as military boots on the ground of Hong Kong.

I'd like the option to order Rankings by Brier score.