There’s no ability to rescind smileys once they’re given, or at least I didn’t see any. It’s not a pressing matter, but there’ve been two times I recall where I smiley’d the wrong comment and couldn’t un-smiley them.
Also, maybe change the colour of the smiley if the user added their own to it.
While I don’t want to doubt the veracity of the sources and the truths of the statements, I feel it necessary to point out there’s a low but present incentive in any national cabinet to downplay the severity of illness in their head of government. The reasons for that are manifold (don’t want to panic the populace, don’t jostle the market, keep trust in public health services, smooth transition to successor, …) and may have the best intentions, but that only influences the depths of (dis)trust one ought to put in any such statements.
It is weird to be informed about the most recent mass shooting by stint of having failed the prediction on Metaculus. Sad news without a doubt, but also a weird happenstance.
Huh. Either this question cost me dearly, of something’s wrong. I have a weird number of points. My prediction was:
Lower: 22 Jan | Median: 28 Jan | Upper: 4 Feb
Yet I earned negative 148 points. In comparison to a mock question with the same dates, I should have earned positive 15.
@max.wainwright, did something odd happen here?
Here is a quick spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L-5JI…
The most recent announcement (Yuuzaku Maezawa's #dearMoon) renders the very aggressively placed 2024 cargo landing benchmark void in my opinion. As I’ve said before, the 2029 launch window appears most realistic in the timeframe. I’d give above even odds for a cargo landing (for 2026 or 2029) and below even odds for a manned landing.
Brexit Forever: When will the current invocation of Article 50 be resolved?
This would resolve on the date of any kind of Brexit and any revocation of Article 50 by the UK (and probably close a week before or something). With this question we could somewhat determine the chances of an eternal Brexit, where the Brexit deadline would be effectively postponed annually by another year. I’m particularly looking at the Korean Armistice Agreement as inspiration of this weird scenario presented.
I would also like to see a stipulation about the duration of illumination. The currently proposed project would provide light only on the scale of minutes (5–8) at a time, not for hours as one might reasonably think.
@Uncle Jeff wrote:
What if he dies first? Is that ambiguous or negative resolution?
I’d view this as negative resolution. Popes are elected for life, and Benedict XVI was the first since Gregory XII’s resignation in 1415.
Here I was writing a reply about how 29E is more dead brick than debris field now and in the process of adding the final garnish, supporting links, where I discover I am wrong. Oh well.
If these countries have the testing capability, if they report their cases on time, and if the exponents remain the same for the respective doubling time, then…
Italy: >120k USA: >170k Spain: >150k Germany: >130k France: > 80k