There’s no ability to rescind smileys once they’re given, or at least I didn’t see any. It’s not a pressing matter, but there’ve been two times I recall where I smiley’d the wrong comment and couldn’t un-smiley them.

Also, maybe change the colour of the smiley if the user added their own to it.

While I don’t want to doubt the veracity of the sources and the truths of the statements, I feel it necessary to point out there’s a low but present incentive in any national cabinet to downplay the severity of illness in their head of government. The reasons for that are manifold (don’t want to panic the populace, don’t jostle the market, keep trust in public health services, smooth transition to successor, …) and may have the best intentions, but that only influences the depths of (dis)trust one ought to put in any such statements.

It is weird to be informed about the most recent mass shooting by stint of having failed the prediction on Metaculus. Sad news without a doubt, but also a weird happenstance.

Huh. Either this question cost me dearly, of something’s wrong. I have a weird number of points. My prediction was:

Lower: 22 Jan | Median: 28 Jan | Upper: 4 Feb

Yet I earned negative 148 points. In comparison to a mock question with the same dates, I should have earned positive 15.

@max.wainwright, did something odd happen here?

I think this might resolve elsewhere much faster than in the western hemisphere. A look at the banking sector and their reluctance to adopt new technologies[1][2] once they have a proven way to handle the current demands makes me doubtful we’ll see a resolution within the next, say, five years. When someone, presumably a company, corporation, start-up, or whatever, comes up with a way that is both cheap and convenient (which are basic necessities for this to take off) for the consumer to use, then I’d suspect we’ll see some progress. On the other hand, ...
[85. U.S. Statement, Definition and Delimitation of Outer Space And The Character And Utilization Of The Geostationary Orbit, Legal Subcommittee of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space at its 40th Session in Vienna from April](https://2009-2017.state.gov/s/l/22718.htm) > [W]e have examined this issue carefully and have listened to the various statements delivered at this session. Our position continues to be that defining or delimiting outer space is not necessary. No legal or practical problems have arisen in the absence of ...
I'd like to see two question that in conjunction might be controversial; they would also be a good case where one could switch between the two binary answer options, if such a feature is implemented by that time. 1 Will the Republicans/Democrats win the popular vote in the US presidential elections in 2020? 2 Will the Democrats/Republicans win the electoral college in the US presidential election in 2020? It would be interesting to see see these questions launched relatively early on. Even if only only 5 of 57 elections held so far had the case of pop...

The most recent announcement (Yuuzaku Maezawa's #dearMoon) renders the very aggressively placed 2024 cargo landing benchmark void in my opinion. As I’ve said before, the 2029 launch window appears most realistic in the timeframe. I’d give above even odds for a cargo landing (for 2026 or 2029) and below even odds for a manned landing.

[SpaceX targets 2021 commercial Starship launch](https://spacenews.com/spacex-targets-2021-commercial-starship-launch/): > The first commercial mission for SpaceX’s Starship and Super Heavy launch system will likely take place in 2021, a company executive said June 26. > Jonathan Hofeller, SpaceX’s vice president of commercial sales, said the company is in talks with prospective customers for the first commercial launch of that system roughly two years from now. > “We are in discussions with three different customers as we speak right now to be that...
@(Jgalt) wrote: > Given that CNBC, Dow Jones, and the Wall Street Journal are now reporting that Trump's inauguration spending is the subject of a criminal probe conducted by Federal prosecutors, maybe we should open another iteration of this question with Michael Cohen excluded? > > https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-inauguration-spending-under-criminal-investigation-by-federal-prosecutors-11544736455 Alternatively: > **How many members of President Trump's inner circle will be sentenced to jail by 2023?** > > For the purposes of this question we'...
@(Jgalt) Bloomberg doesn’t get scientific notation. If anything, the three are/were hectobillionaires. If we go with SI prefixes, which Bloomberg appears to do, centi is 10^-2 of the base unit. ``` kilo 10^3 base unit hecto 10^2 base unit deka 10^1 base unit 10^0 base unit deci 10^−1 base unit centi 10^−2 base unit milli 10^−3 base unit ``` Incidentally, as of this writing according to the [Bloomberg Billionaire Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), only Jeff Bezos remains in that club. Though given the s...
[Fancy mice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fancy_mouse) live usually 1.5–2 years, but exceed that ofter enough. If we take that to mean 60 years human equivalent, then 6y10m (2500 days) would be on the far side of 200 years human equivalent. However, this math is ball-parking at best, since the mouse model is still only that, a *model*. For a positive resolution the mouse has to have been born by 28-02-2028 (that date is 2500 days before 31-12-2034), probably by a couple months, since the criterion is *media* report, not age of mouse on 01-01-2035. An...
> Google, Youtube, Facebook, Wikipedia, Yahoo!, Amazon, Windows Live, Reddit, Netflix, Blogspot Google, Youtube, Blogspot are all Google or Alphabet; Amazon and Netflix run on AWS; all these are thus swimming in servers. Yahoo! *might* crash (their last downtime lasted an hour, September 2019). I don’t know how to operationalise Windows Live. Of all these I only actually expect Reddit to be affected. Here’s the [uptime.com tracker for April](uptime.com/reddit.com?start=20200401&end=20200430). Judging by their server response time over the last year, th...

Brexit Forever: When will the current invocation of Article 50 be resolved?

This would resolve on the date of any kind of Brexit and any revocation of Article 50 by the UK (and probably close a week before or something). With this question we could somewhat determine the chances of an eternal Brexit, where the Brexit deadline would be effectively postponed annually by another year. I’m particularly looking at the Korean Armistice Agreement as inspiration of this weird scenario presented.

How well will the electoral college represent the popular vote in the US 2020 presidential elections? For this to implement I’d suggest a numeric scale from -10 to +10. The positive value would be for electoral college winner = popular vote winner, indicating *how much more* than half the votes the president elect got. The negative value would be for the electoral college winner ≠ popular vote winner, showing *how much less* than half the votes the president elect got. I’d make the question myself, but sadly I’ve not been able to be active on Metacul...

I would also like to see a stipulation about the duration of illumination. The currently proposed project would provide light only on the scale of minutes (5–8) at a time, not for hours as one might reasonably think.

@Uncle Jeff wrote:

What if he dies first? Is that ambiguous or negative resolution?

I’d view this as negative resolution. Popes are elected for life, and Benedict XVI was the first since Gregory XII’s resignation in 1415.

Here I was writing a reply about how 29E is more dead brick than debris field now and in the process of adding the final garnish, supporting links, where I discover I am wrong. Oh well.

Ars Technica: New video of Intelsat 29e satellite reveals dramatic “anomaly”

If these countries have the testing capability, if they report their cases on time, and if the exponents remain the same for the respective doubling time, then…

Italy:   >120k
USA:     >170k 
Spain:   >150k
Germany: >130k
France:  > 80k