Michael Story pointing out on Twitter that Of the 93 cases of Monkeypox outside Africa where the patient's sex is known, 100% are male (127 confirmed cases overall). Suggests that casual contact probably isn't the driver unless these lads are socialising in extremely sex-segregated environments.

Sam Altman confirms there's a video model in the works at OpenAI.

Poland will deliver a company of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as a part of international coalition, Polish President Duda announced.

The question will resolve positively if these are actually received.

[BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-63771109) reports that “[p]rotests against Covid restrictions in China appear to have intensified in the wake of a fire which killed 10 people in an apartment block in Urumqi,” having now spread to several cities such as Shanghai. As the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/d8231c04-5d7f-468e-8547-77587546734e) reports, “China has been rocket by some of its most significant acts of civil disobedience in years after vigils in Shanghai and other big cities […] turned into protests over Xi Jinping’s draco...

It is hard to make out, but it looks like in this battle map that Lukashenko presents here, that there is an arrow (indicating Russian plans/movements) pointing towards Transnistria. Again, I'm not sure but this definitely led me to update heavily on this.

I haven't tracked how many other newspapers/magazines have given the/a similar title to Zelenskyy, but the Financial Times named Zelenskyy as the FT Person of the Year today!

NBC:Donald Trump prepares for his return to Facebook and Twitter

There has been an increase of 5 percentage points over the past hours. Does anybody know what information might underlie this shift? I haven't read of anything relevant (and just time passing should have the opposite effect)?

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[FT: Jair Bolsonaro seeks six-month US tourist visa to extend Florida stay](https://www.ft.com/content/914b9d07-49a6-4133-84ac-f22e2eff803d) > Jair Bolsonaro, the former president of Brazil, has applied for a six-month visitor visa to remain in the US as his legal standing in his home country grows perilous. > Bolsonaro’s application was received by US authorities on Friday, according to his lawyer, Felipe Alexandre, who has advised the former president not to leave the country while it is being processed — a period that could last several months. > “...

[A Single Bet on Deutsche Bank’s Credit Default Swaps Is Seen Behind Friday’s Rout](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-28/a-single-bet-on-deutsche-bank-s-cds-is-seen-behind-friday-s-rout#xj4y7vzkg) > A roughly €5m trade may have fueled sell off, sources say > Regulators are singling out a trade on Deutsche Bank AG’s credit default swaps that they suspect fueled a global sell off on Friday. > It was a roughly €5 million ($5.4 million) bet on swaps tied to the German bank’s junior debt, according to people familiar with the matter, who said...

Kathie Griffin, Jorden Peterson & Babylon Bee have been reinstated. Trump decision has not yet been made.

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I agree with @Unwrapped8600 that it is really cool that the data set was so straightforwardly available and interpretable (I've seen enough data sets in my time that were available but extremely hard to understand). I have also fit a simple ARIMA as a rough guide for my forecast here, with a point estimate of 106 for 2023 (averaging across the 12 forecasted months). I then add a component on the right side of the distribution (with low mass) to capture my personal view that 2023 is very likely to be much more similar to 2022 (with a continuation of the...

VP Comm at Substack, on Twitter, claimed that "At Substack, we don’t make moderation decisions based on public pressure or PR considerations. An important principle for us is defending free expression, even for stuff we personally dislike or disagree with. We understand principles come at a cost."

Kamala Harris's favouribility ratings have stayed quite constant at around 35-40% over the past months, though this was, at least in part, due to her being relatively absent from the public stage (in my estimation).

[Berkshire Hathaway cuts Activision stake as Microsoft deal flounders](https://www.ft.com/content/751342cf-3753-44e3-9a22-8bd2ebbac990) > Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its bet on Activision Blizzard in late 2022, as the video game maker’s agreed takeover by Microsoft came under regulatory scrutiny. > Berkshire sold 7.4mn shares, or 12 per cent of its position, in Activision in the fourth quarter. The sales by the sprawling industrials-to-insurance conglomerate reduced its stake by roughly $435mn to $4bn, filings with the US Securities and...

NBC: Donald Trump prepares for his return to Facebook and Twitter

Here's a longer-term (2035) Metaculus question about Russian annexation of land in the Baltics.

Guardian: Universal flu vaccine may be available within two years

Russia has not transferred nuclear weapons to Belarus yet, NATO leader and US official say -- CNN

It seems like Scholz announced that NordStream II will not be certified, perhaps indicating the start of harsh(er than expected) sanctions.