Two important factors:
1.) I think the Taliban will be smart enough not to attract more ire
2.) I think the US knows how to extract diplomats and staff without incident
I think the community may be underrating how a few scattered incidents could be labeled "civil war" by news outlets, even if it isn't remotely close to "civil war" at the scale of 1861.
Even if 1861-style war has a chance of <1%, I think there is a 10% chance of a "few scattered incidents" and a 30% chance these incidents may get labeled as "civil war".
The Open Model Project team (of which I am a part) has started putting together a dashboard of NYC Mayoral candidate polling, fundraising, and PredictIt scores
Polymarket: Will Twitter announce a Musk acquisition by June 1, 2022? 13%
Oh I/we also forgot about Tulsi Gabbard!
@Sylvain Thanks. In the future I will try actually reading the question.
What if Russia installs a new gov and the new gov does Minsk? Is that possible?
My forecast: How will the Cuomo situation end?
60% - Cuomo resigns before his term is up
15% - Cuomo is impeached and removed
15% - Cuomo makes it to the end of his term + does not run again
7% - Cuomo survives + runs again, but loses
3% - Cuomo survives + runs + is re-elected
— edited by PeterWildeford
Polymarket: "Will any Russian institution be disconnected from SWIFT by April 1?" 40% yes with $9,020 volume
Per https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/134…, 2020 and 2016 are a statistical tie.
I made a Monte Carlo model that suggests a lower 25% of 2021-10-29, a mean of 2021-11-24, and an upper 75% of 2021-12-24.
To account for model uncertainty, I used two components to add some fat tails.
Davis lost his recall by 10 points, mainly from conservative-leaning districts. But now California is twenty points more blue leaning than it was during the Davis recall and the candidates running against Newsom are not Schwarzenegger. Newsom is very likely going to prevail.
— edited by PeterHurford
I think the community is underrating some ">=$9, <$15" compromise legislation.
@casens Presumably to not include considerations of the President Elect dying
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that recency bias plus Trump being impeached twice is going to make historians look really unfavorably upon him.
Seems like there are very strong incentives to avoid this sort of thing.
@Jgalt More than two-thirds of Americans are bad at forecasting