This question is now presumed to be resolved positively by end of day:
BREAKING: Putin informed Germany's Scholz and France's Macron he will sign decree recognizing independence of separatist republics in eastern Ukraine
Also could you please explicitly confirm that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporarily_occ… as of the time this question was launched will be used as the list of territories that do not count for resolution?
@Tamay How do those questions handle the downside of superhuman AGI? I think many, including myself, worry that there's a sizable chance such AI wouldn't actually make GWP growth exceed 6% because instead everyone would be dead.
@Anthony I think the large problem with this question is it seems like all the chosen sub-questions have issues. The Loebner Silver Prize and the Winogrande Challenge are not run anymore. The Montezuma's revenge question is having trouble resolving because no one is reporting the relevant data needed.
My guess is that the SAT prong is going to be the hardest to resolve and it's also possible this would include added difficulty if no one actually tries to test the system.
If we're 76% sure that AI progress will surprise us, shouldn't we go to the original questions and shift them?
IMO I think there is a 90% chance he runs and an 80% chance he wins the nomination if he runs (with the majority of the reason of him not winning the nomination is legal jeopardy) = 72% chance that DJT is the R nominee.
BTW if the community now thinks that DJT has an 80% chance of running, this community median of 43% is implying he only has an 54% chance of winning if he runs, which seems comically low, so I think the community should update here or there.
Is it possible that we may not know the answer to this question? If I understand correctly, estimates of total dead in the Iraq War range from 7,600 to 45,000. What if we are confronted with a similar range involving tough admin judgment calls?
@Anthony Any ETA on when this question is going to resolve?
I'm 1% on the actual proposition, but I'm predicting 5% because I am unsure how the committee will actually work / decide.
Winning 190 points on this prediction, made after the AP declared the election for Trump, feels like cheating.
Can I win 190 points for betting whether the sun will rise on 1 April?
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There is now a Kalshi market for this though with a March 2022 timeframe. Kalshi currently has this at 34%, which is similar to the community median.
Seems really unlikely to happen under a Democrat-led Senate
@Uncle Jeff Yeah, wagering an additional net 77 points just to gain 1 additional net point usually feels not worth the risk that I misread the question or missed a crucial consideration, which empirically happens to me more than 1% of the time.
@TomL If Russia moves > 100 troops into Transnistria and a member of the security council points out Moldova doesn’t want them there, this would resolve positive? If so, seems like not the spirit of the question because Russian troops have been there since 1992 and it would make more sense for this to only trigger with an invasion of Moldova outside of Transnistria. Can this be clarified?
Does Russia actually need to invade Belarus to control Belarus? Seems like they already have as much troops in Belarus and as much control over Belarus as they'd want.
@Jgalt More than two-thirds of Americans are bad at forecasting
Sad because I was all set up to earn >100 points from a "yes" resolution earlier this month, but I also ended up with only +1
Metaculus really just needs to prioritize some sort of support for categorical values - this is getting ridiculous.
Kim has made ten appearances in the last thirty days, most recently on August 19.