## PeterWildeford Candidacy I'm a Metaculus power user (top 50 on forecasting and have written many good questions and made comments) and I want to see Metaculus forecast more things aligned with EA principles and EA research. I also run Rethink Priorities, which does a lot of EA research and heavily integrates Metaculus into our work (such as with the nukes tournament and other questions we've written). I'd like to see this integration continue, hence this candidacy. Note that I would be a moderator in my personal capacity, not in my capacity of Co-CEO...

If we're 76% sure that AI progress will surprise us, shouldn't we go to the original questions and shift them?

I'm 1% on the actual proposition, but I'm predicting 5% because I am unsure how the committee will actually work / decide.

Winning 190 points on this prediction, made after the AP declared the election for Trump, feels like cheating.

Can I win 190 points for betting whether the sun will rise on 1 April?

— edited by PeterHurford

Sad because I was all set up to earn >100 points from a "yes" resolution earlier this month, but I also ended up with only +1

Metaculus really just needs to prioritize some sort of support for categorical values - this is getting ridiculous.

Kim has made ten appearances in the last thirty days, most recently on August 19.

Seems really unlikely to happen under a Democrat-led Senate

@Uncle Jeff Yeah, wagering an additional net 77 points just to gain 1 additional net point usually feels not worth the risk that I misread the question or missed a crucial consideration, which empirically happens to me more than 1% of the time.

Berkeley Earth:

Likelihood of final 2020 ranking, based on January to October: 1st place (16%) 2nd place (80%) 3rd place (4%) Top 3 overall (>99%)

NOAA:

29.2% chance of warmest year

Average of the two: 23%

Two important factors:

1.) I think the Taliban will be smart enough not to attract more ire

2.) I think the US knows how to extract diplomats and staff without incident

I think the community may be underrating how a few scattered incidents could be labeled "civil war" by news outlets, even if it isn't remotely close to "civil war" at the scale of 1861.

Even if 1861-style war has a chance of <1%, I think there is a 10% chance of a "few scattered incidents" and a 30% chance these incidents may get labeled as "civil war".

I update my below forecast and now I am at: * There is a 75% chance of Trumpy candidate winning the R nomination (previously was at 40%, updated based on current trajectory of the candidates and [the relevant PredictIt market](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination)) * A Trumpy R candidate has an 80% chance of challenging the general election outcome * A non-Trumpy R candidate has an 10% chance of challenging the general election outcome (Romney, McCain, etc. did not) * A D candidate has...

My forecast: How will the Cuomo situation end?

60% - Cuomo resigns before his term is up

15% - Cuomo is impeached and removed

15% - Cuomo makes it to the end of his term + does not run again

7% - Cuomo survives + runs again, but loses

3% - Cuomo survives + runs + is re-elected

— edited by PeterWildeford

I made a Monte Carlo model that suggests a lower 25% of 2021-10-29, a mean of 2021-11-24, and an upper 75% of 2021-12-24.

To account for model uncertainty, I used two components to add some fat tails.