## PeterWildeford Candidacy I'm a Metaculus power user (top 50 on forecasting and have written many good questions and made comments) and I want to see Metaculus forecast more things aligned with EA principles and EA research. I also run Rethink Priorities, which does a lot of EA research and heavily integrates Metaculus into our work (such as with the nukes tournament and other questions we've written). I'd like to see this integration continue, hence this candidacy. Note that I would be a moderator in my personal capacity, not in my capacity of Co-CEO...

This question is now presumed to be resolved positively by end of day:


BREAKING: Putin informed Germany's Scholz and France's Macron he will sign decree recognizing independence of separatist republics in eastern Ukraine

@casens @admins @moderators I think it would be good to tread carefully here as this question resolving positively / negatively is being used to resolve various bets now totaling six figures.

Also could you please explicitly confirm that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temporarily_occ… as of the time this question was launched will be used as the list of territories that do not count for resolution?

In case you were curious about the past movement of the meter, I used archive.org...

If you number the notches from 0 to 20, where "attempted coup" starts at 13, "coup" starts at 19, and we are currently at (as of 20 Nov at 2:05pm CT) 10, here's the history:

8 Oct - 11

9 Oct - 12

28 Oct - 11

4 Nov - 12

6 Nov - 11

7 Nov - 10

Today - 10

— edited by PeterHurford

@Anthony I think the large problem with this question is it seems like all the chosen sub-questions have issues. The Loebner Silver Prize and the Winogrande Challenge are not run anymore. The Montezuma's revenge question is having trouble resolving because no one is reporting the relevant data needed.

My guess is that the SAT prong is going to be the hardest to resolve and it's also possible this would include added difficulty if no one actually tries to test the system.

@Tamay How do those questions handle the downside of superhuman AGI? I think many, including myself, worry that there's a sizable chance such AI wouldn't actually make GWP growth exceed 6% because instead everyone would be dead.

If we're 76% sure that AI progress will surprise us, shouldn't we go to the original questions and shift them?

IMO I think there is a [90% chance he runs](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6330/will-donald-trump-run-for-president-in-2024/) and an 80% chance he wins the nomination if he runs (with the majority of the reason of him not winning the nomination is legal jeopardy) = 72% chance that DJT is the R nominee. BTW if the community now thinks that DJT has an 80% chance of running, this community median of 43% is implying he only has an 54% chance of winning if he runs, which seems comically low, so I think the community should update here or there. This co...

Is it possible that we may not know the answer to this question? If I understand correctly, estimates of total dead in the Iraq War range from 7,600 to 45,000. What if we are confronted with a similar range involving tough admin judgment calls?

For "Will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?" does the "other war" have to be ongoing in 2023 (otherwise surely World War II wins)?

Does it have to start in 2023? Are the casualties being compared just 2023 casualties vs. 2023 casualties, or all casualties for that war? I think any of the Tigray War, Yemeni Civil War, Syrian Civil War, Somali Civil War, Boko Haram Insurgency, or War in Darfur could beat Ukraine War if it's ok for the war to not have started in 2023 and/or we don't compare 2023 vs 2023 only.

Why does the community think there is a 16% chance this question will resolve this year? Surely that's ridiculously high?

I'm 1% on the actual proposition, but I'm predicting 5% because I am unsure how the committee will actually work / decide.

Winning 190 points on this prediction, made after the AP declared the election for Trump, feels like cheating.

Can I win 190 points for betting whether the sun will rise on 1 April?

— edited by PeterHurford

Does Russia actually need to invade Belarus to control Belarus? Seems like they already have as much troops in Belarus and as much control over Belarus as they'd want.

@Jgalt More than two-thirds of Americans are bad at forecasting

So far we've had 16% as much death as 2022 with 34% of the time. That makes this pretty close, potentially still could happen especially if there is a fall/winter season.

Sad because I was all set up to earn >100 points from a "yes" resolution earlier this month, but I also ended up with only +1

@n99 "confirmed" in "confirmed cases" is doing a lot of the work here. China is very reluctant to confirm cases.