If we're 76% sure that AI progress will surprise us, shouldn't we go to the original questions and shift them?
@Anthony Any ETA on when this question is going to resolve?
I'm 1% on the actual proposition, but I'm predicting 5% because I am unsure how the committee will actually work / decide.
Winning 190 points on this prediction, made after the AP declared the election for Trump, feels like cheating.
Can I win 190 points for betting whether the sun will rise on 1 April?
— edited by PeterHurford
Sad because I was all set up to earn >100 points from a "yes" resolution earlier this month, but I also ended up with only +1
Metaculus really just needs to prioritize some sort of support for categorical values - this is getting ridiculous.
There is now a Kalshi market for this though with a March 2022 timeframe. Kalshi currently has this at 34%, which is similar to the community median.
Kim has made ten appearances in the last thirty days, most recently on August 19.
Seems really unlikely to happen under a Democrat-led Senate
@Uncle Jeff Yeah, wagering an additional net 77 points just to gain 1 additional net point usually feels not worth the risk that I misread the question or missed a crucial consideration, which empirically happens to me more than 1% of the time.
Two important factors:
1.) I think the Taliban will be smart enough not to attract more ire
2.) I think the US knows how to extract diplomats and staff without incident
I think the community may be underrating how a few scattered incidents could be labeled "civil war" by news outlets, even if it isn't remotely close to "civil war" at the scale of 1861.
Even if 1861-style war has a chance of <1%, I think there is a 10% chance of a "few scattered incidents" and a 30% chance these incidents may get labeled as "civil war".
The Open Model Project team (of which I am a part) has started putting together a dashboard of NYC Mayoral candidate polling, fundraising, and PredictIt scores
Oh I/we also forgot about Tulsi Gabbard!
My forecast: How will the Cuomo situation end?
60% - Cuomo resigns before his term is up
15% - Cuomo is impeached and removed
15% - Cuomo makes it to the end of his term + does not run again
7% - Cuomo survives + runs again, but loses
3% - Cuomo survives + runs + is re-elected
— edited by PeterWildeford
Per https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/134…, 2020 and 2016 are a statistical tie.
I made a Monte Carlo model that suggests a lower 25% of 2021-10-29, a mean of 2021-11-24, and an upper 75% of 2021-12-24.
To account for model uncertainty, I used two components to add some fat tails.