Here’s an alphabetical list of colleges that have either disclosed their plans, mentioned them in news reports, or set a deadline for deciding: https://www.chronicle.com/article/Here-s-a-Li…

[Political Wire: "Andrew Yang Has Decided to Run for Mayor"](https://politicalwire.com/2020/12/11/andrew-yang-will-run-for-new-york-city-mayor/v) > “Andrew Yang, the former tech executive who gained a national following as a Democratic presidential candidate, has been privately telling New York City leaders that he intends to run for mayor next year,” the New York Times reports. > “Mr. Yang is not expected to announce his bid until next month, but with the Democratic primary less than seven months away, he has begun to make overtures to several of the ...

I'm decreasing my odds (50% -> 40%) now that these also could be secret pardons.

Upon request, I [made a predictive model](https://www.getguesstimate.com/models/17130) that takes into account all of the polls for Prop 21 since September 2020 (my Rethink Priorities poll also discussed below, the two Berkeley IGS polls, and the SurveyUSA poll). Based on [the historical accuracy of polls dating back to 2008](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kbaszUkEosz6QNdoZ58Ylq9SFXK_VWaoyE2OWoi4Dro/edit#gid=0), I now project a 43% chance that Prop 21 will pass. (EDIT: Previously gave a value that was based on a bug in the model that has now b...

@johnnycaffeine If they're tracking 100K signatures per week now, they will definitely clear the 1.8M-1.9M threshold needed to survive court challenges.

I think the community is potentially underrating:

(1) delays between polling starting and the poll getting in the average

(2) the amount of smoothing in the 538 average

(3) the amount that the (a) overall American public disapproves of the Capitol Hill issue and (b) the amount the American public will personally blame Trump for it.

— edited by PeterHurford

@michal_dubrawski I think we can only go by what is known publicly, which means this question will resolve negative if it is not publicly known by 21 Jan 2021. Perhaps we should make a question about whether there will be a secret pardon announced later?

In my opinion, Michigan is well out of the range of being contested and has a <0.1% chance of flipping (would require some very unprecedented event like an extreme norms violation or discovery of widespread fraud). Wisconsin and Georgia could conceivably be turned over in a recount but it would be unprecedented for a recount to overturn a margin of that size. Maybe these are 0.5% for Wisconsin and 1% for Georgia. Nevada and Pennsylvania look overwhelmingly likely to be for Biden and outside of recount range. Maybe 1% of flipping each. Similarly, North...

This thread was a lot less illuminating than I was expecting.

We're still seeing only "trying to repeal the ACA" levels of backlash.

@Jgalt @JonathanRay On this "Rational Security" podcast they (national security experts) said that there was no current legal basis to ban TikTok, but that Congress could pass a new law to ban TikTok. Seems unlikely though.

@Reprisal "Biden has been steadily losing support since the day he announced"

Looks pretty flat (neither increasing nor steadily decreasing) to me. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020…

I'm glad I had wider distributions than the community (my upper 75% was at 0.34) but still lost 75 points.

— edited by PeterHurford

I and a few other people made a forecasting model of the Georgia Senate runoffs where you can see and tweak all the assumptions and see how it changes the results: https://www.openmodelproject.org/

@randomuser2323 I don't think the Safe Harbor deadline is relevant for these slates, since the real electoral college vote is also after Safe Harbor.

I do agree that there is a ~0% chance these alternative slates are accepted, I just worry there is a >6% chance they are read in the congressional session such that this question resolves positively.

@SimonM @nextbigfuture I'd also be wary about over-updating and fixating on 2016. This lead to worse predictions about European populism and the US 2018 elections, for example.