It's really boring when you do all the work to make a really cool model and then it says exactly what the Metaculus community average and betting markets already are at.
Model is here: https://getguesstimate.com/models/17271
Polls + adjustments are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BM-HS…
In case you were curious about the past movement of the meter, I used archive.org...
If you number the notches from 0 to 20, where "attempted coup" starts at 13, "coup" starts at 19, and we are currently at (as of 20 Nov at 2:05pm CT) 10, here's the history:
8 Oct - 11
9 Oct - 12
28 Oct - 11
4 Nov - 12
6 Nov - 11
7 Nov - 10
Today - 10
— edited by PeterHurford
@Jgalt @YasmineBose "Red shift" / "Blue shift" don't refer to polling error - they refer to the change in vote total over time due to overwhelmingly Dem mail-in ballots (e.g., the vote total "blue shifts" towards Dems once mail-in ballots are counted).
I deserved to lose points on this
@cd ongoing silence may also just generally indicate a rapidly increasing chance of this resolving ambiguous (no story)
Now banned by Cambridge MA - first one in 2020.
I and a few other people made a forecasting model of the Georgia Senate runoffs where you can see and tweak all the assumptions and see how it changes the results: https://www.openmodelproject.org/
I think there's a small chance some security-related reason could force a reschedule and a smaller chance some health-related reason could. Maybe also could get screwed by rules if Roberts messes up the oath of office again.
I have $7000 on the relevant Polymarket question.
I respect Kelsey as having amazing predictions in 2020, but it seems nearly impossible to have a functional government without nominees, and I expect a Democrat controlled senate to make this happen. Even with a Republican senate, senators like Romney, Collins, Murkowski, etc., would help Biden get a cabinet. Worst case, there also would be plenty of time for Biden to change candidates to more compromise.
I and a few other people made a forecasting model of the Georgia Senate runoffs where you can see and tweak all the assumptions and see how it changes the results: https://www.openmodelproject.org/
Does anyone know the velocity of vaccine production and vaccines being given (i.e., new vaccines / day)?
@amit.levy49 Not enough points to maximize EV though
@JonathanRay I don't think it would? Apps can be forcibly removed if they're deemed to break the law and that isn't a free speech violation.
Party is over. Pack it up, boys.
Well now I lost my first 3% prediction... -332 points and down 5 ranks on the leaderboard. I was like ~5% this sort of thing would happen and didn't think at all that it would trigger resolution.
— edited by PeterHurford
@EvanHarper I bet we will see some action on inauguration day. Trump likes to steal the spotlight. I haven't budged from my 51% prediction.