It's really boring when you do all the work to make a really cool model and then it says exactly what the Metaculus community average and betting markets already are at.

Model is here: https://getguesstimate.com/models/17271

Polls + adjustments are here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BM-HS…

Popular Mechanics (https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/satellites/a30394536/asteria-satellite-lost/) says “there’s a small likelihood they could still reestablish contact”... how small?
The satellite has been lost since 5 Dec 2019. Looking at some other examples of lost satellites, I don’t see other examples of satellites being lost for 1.5 months that have been recontacted, but my sample size is only seven (IMAGE x2, ISEE-3, STEREO-B, WALL-E, EVE, Philae).
Laplace’s Rule of Succession states that “If we repeat an experiment that we know can result ...

@Jgalt @YasmineBose "Red shift" / "Blue shift" don't refer to polling error - they refer to the change in vote total over time due to overwhelmingly Dem mail-in ballots (e.g., the vote total "blue shifts" towards Dems once mail-in ballots are counted).

I deserved to lose points on this

@cd ongoing silence may also just generally indicate a rapidly increasing chance of this resolving ambiguous (no story)

Now banned by Cambridge MA - first one in 2020.

I and a few other people made a forecasting model of the Georgia Senate runoffs where you can see and tweak all the assumptions and see how it changes the results: https://www.openmodelproject.org/

I respect Kelsey as having amazing predictions in 2020, but it seems nearly impossible to have a functional government without nominees, and I expect a Democrat controlled senate to make this happen. Even with a Republican senate, senators like Romney, Collins, Murkowski, etc., would help Biden get a cabinet. Worst case, there also would be plenty of time for Biden to change candidates to more compromise.

I polled California Proposition 22 on 20 October and found 52.6% topline support (N=867 likely California voters, weighted to be representative of California by race, age, gender, education, income,
and 2016 Presidential vote).
Using information from this poll, plus historical data on the accuracy of polls, but no other information (e.g., other
polls, opposition spending), I model an 80% chance that the true support as observed on election day will fall 41.1% and 59.3%.
A Monte Carlo simulation of the above 80% interval as a normal distribution with 10...

Does anyone know the velocity of vaccine production and vaccines being given (i.e., new vaccines / day)?

@amit.levy49 Not enough points to maximize EV though

@JonathanRay I don't think it would? Apps can be forcibly removed if they're deemed to break the law and that isn't a free speech violation.

Party is over. Pack it up, boys.

**7 Dec GA Senate runoff model update -**
Thinking about [this tweet](https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1335969234413883395), I will be making the 3 Nov election a much larger portion of my GA runoff model (adding more weight to the prior). This pushes the odds I give for Ds taking the Senate from 40% to 35%.
538 [now has a polling average for GA](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/georgia-senate-polls/). Even though they have the same polls, they say Ossoff +0.3 and Warnock +2.1 whereas I say...
w/ election prior - Purdue +1.9, Loeffler +0.5
wi...

I polled California Proposition 16 on 20 October and found 46.1% topline support (N=869 likely California voters, weighted to be representative of California by race, age, gender, education, income,
and 2016 Presidential vote).
Using information from this poll, plus historical data on the accuracy of polls, but no other information (e.g., other
polls, opposition spending), I model an 80% chance that the true support as observed on election day will fall 30.4% and 49.4%.
A Monte Carlo simulation of the above 80% interval as a normal distribution with 10...