It's really boring when you do all the work to make a really cool model and then it says exactly what the Metaculus community average and betting markets already are at.

Model is here:

Polls + adjustments are here:…

In case you were curious about the past movement of the meter, I used

If you number the notches from 0 to 20, where "attempted coup" starts at 13, "coup" starts at 19, and we are currently at (as of 20 Nov at 2:05pm CT) 10, here's the history:

8 Oct - 11

9 Oct - 12

28 Oct - 11

4 Nov - 12

6 Nov - 11

7 Nov - 10

Today - 10

— edited by PeterHurford

Popular Mechanics ( says “there’s a small likelihood they could still reestablish contact”... how small? The satellite has been lost since 5 Dec 2019. Looking at some other examples of lost satellites, I don’t see other examples of satellites being lost for 1.5 months that have been recontacted, but my sample size is only seven (IMAGE x2, ISEE-3, STEREO-B, WALL-E, EVE, Philae). Laplace’s Rule of Succession states that “If we repeat an experiment that we know can result ...

@Jgalt @YasmineBose "Red shift" / "Blue shift" don't refer to polling error - they refer to the change in vote total over time due to overwhelmingly Dem mail-in ballots (e.g., the vote total "blue shifts" towards Dems once mail-in ballots are counted).

@cd ongoing silence may also just generally indicate a rapidly increasing chance of this resolving ambiguous (no story)

I and a few other people made a forecasting model of the Georgia Senate runoffs where you can see and tweak all the assumptions and see how it changes the results:

I think there's a small chance some security-related reason could force a reschedule and a smaller chance some health-related reason could. Maybe also could get screwed by rules if Roberts messes up the oath of office again.

I have $7000 on the relevant Polymarket question.

I respect Kelsey as having amazing predictions in 2020, but it seems nearly impossible to have a functional government without nominees, and I expect a Democrat controlled senate to make this happen. Even with a Republican senate, senators like Romney, Collins, Murkowski, etc., would help Biden get a cabinet. Worst case, there also would be plenty of time for Biden to change candidates to more compromise.

I and a few other people made a forecasting model of the Georgia Senate runoffs where you can see and tweak all the assumptions and see how it changes the results:

I polled California Proposition 22 on 20 October and found 52.6% topline support (N=867 likely California voters, weighted to be representative of California by race, age, gender, education, income, and 2016 Presidential vote). Using information from this poll, plus historical data on the accuracy of polls, but no other information (e.g., other polls, opposition spending), I model an 80% chance that the true support as observed on election day will fall 41.1% and 59.3%. A Monte Carlo simulation of the above 80% interval as a normal distribution with 10...

Does anyone know the velocity of vaccine production and vaccines being given (i.e., new vaccines / day)?

@JonathanRay I don't think it would? Apps can be forcibly removed if they're deemed to break the law and that isn't a free speech violation.

Well now I lost my first 3% prediction... -332 points and down 5 ranks on the leaderboard. I was like ~5% this sort of thing would happen and didn't think at all that it would trigger resolution.

— edited by PeterHurford

@EvanHarper I bet we will see some action on inauguration day. Trump likes to steal the spotlight. I haven't budged from my 51% prediction.