GJO is at 77%

PredictIt is at 75.5%

Betfair is at 72.7%

— edited by PepeS

@havlickova.blanka @admins Is this supposed to exclude posts already made before March 1, 2022? Otherwise it seems virtually guaranteed that Stephen Clare's post will reach 100.

Copernicus has September as hottest on record. It holds the record by 0.05 C, the same as May.

35% is far, far too high - try 1%

  • The current PM isn't actually stepping down until November
  • It takes time to fail 4 votes and is quite unlikely
  • It will definitely take time to schedule the new election, probably the full 3 months allowed (November + 3 months = 2022)
  • Politicians will lose a lot of approval if they cause an extra election so close to the normal election

Fit a line to the last 10 years of RyanBeck's data and treat errors as normally distributed.

Compare to this range question, where the community gives an 87% chance that any of the top 25 will file by Mar 2024.

Note that fires 6, 7, and 8 were very similarly destructive and this is most likely due to chance, not some magic of that number of buildings being destroyed. Hence a new fire is quite unlikely to stop at places 7 or 8. Quantitatively, fire 7 was only 1.8% more destructive than fire 8, while fire 5 was 18% more destructive than fire 6.

The same goes for fires 3 and 4.

Looks like I can't collect tachyons (yes, I'm below 50).

Community seems too high and narrow. Since 1919 the average growth has been 0.24% and since 2007 it's been 0%, with slow declines at times that don't look like recessions.

At the same time, the standard deviation since the report on Sep 15, 2020 (chosen to postdate covid volatility) is 0.97%, double the community estimate.

I just input the cdf for the 20 historical maxima, adjusted for inflation.

Quadratic fit to SimonM's numbers shows 2020 is a huge outlier. Annual increase is projected to be only 0.078. With a standard error of 0.108 I'm predicting 78.34 - 78.56.

Betfair has this at about 64% and GJOpen at about 85%.

Edit: And PredictIt was at 89% but dropped to 61% today.

— edited by PepeS

Taking @RyanBeck 's sheet and filling in the last 2 months of data, I get a mean of 4411 and sd of 77.

@(Sylvain) The resolution criteria say "date when the first credible article is published", notably *not* the date when the event actually occurred. I assume a live-updating page would count, so OWID or Bloomberg from around March 20 would count. Here's my thinking * OWID's page from March 20 is [ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations](https://web.archive.org/web/20210320003827/https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations) and lists the world total as 101.61 million fully vaccinated. * The only trouble is that this includes a bunch of Chinese or Russian...

In 2017 solar was about 9% of all renewable power, according to wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy


However, solar grows by about 40% per year - much faster than the 2.5-3% growth of renewable on a whole. That means we can expect 17% of renewable to be solar in 2019 and 28% in 2021. I expect this to push renewable growth way over 3%.

— edited by PepeS

The current sum is 813,230 and the sum for the last 3.5 months (since data is only available up to Sep 11) is 102,528.

Public figure predictions are incorrectly matching a number of search queries. E.g. either status=open or not_guessed_by seem to match all public predictions, even if the corresponding Metaculus question doesn't match.

It seems to me that we can combine a few sources. - The biweekly report from [Dec 08](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/8december2021) has a breakdown by age in Figure 2 showing about 12% of people aged 16-24 have been infected but not vaccinated. There are a few more in age 25-34 but in all other ages more people are vaccinated than have immunity. - The UK has [population breakdowns by age](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peo...