Decision Desk HQ has called the election. Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. will be the 46th U.S. President.
Metaculus aims at a high level of discourse. Comments should be on topic, relevant and interesting as much as possible. Much less welcome are highly (and especially irrelevantly) opinionated, spammy, aggressive, or low-information comments.
«Crazy jabowery thinks a victory over Sleepy Joe is as improbable as Randell Mill's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics. SAD!»
I found this podcast episode of the Ezra Klein show with Nate Silver ("Why 2020 isn't 2016") pretty informative. As a side note, when asked at the end of the show to mention a few books he liked, two of his three choices are Nick Bostrom's Superintelligence and Toby Ord's The Precipice.
There's now a petition to the New York Times requesting that they respect Alexander's wish to remain pseudonymous, signed by many prominent figures.
@FranekŻak Don't touch your face!
@Jgalt McAfee has shown repeatedly that he has little concern for the truth. I don't see the point of signal-boosting his pronouncements, which are largely devoid of evidential value.
— edited by PabloStafforini
Why follow the news when you have @Jgalt to keep you informed?
Next Metaculus question: "By 2022, the mystery surrounding Metaculite wolfish_wrath's comment will have been resolved."
@nextbigfuture There are many more predictions than users, since many users make multiple predictions. Furthermore, some of these predictions are from users who registered after the question was posted, and who are as such ineligible to trigger positive resolution. With that said, I'm still very surprised that no positive cases have yet been reported.
When the facts change, we change our constitution. What do you do, sir?
I'm somewhat confused: the title of this question says 'Metaculus vs. Experts', and the body mentions the Covid-19 Expert Surveys, but the resolution appears to compare the Metaculus algorithm with the Metaculus community, with the experts playing no role. Is my understanding of the resolution criterion correct, or am I misunderstanding something?
Alexa now says that only 17 sites are linking to Metaculus. I think these link counts are quite erratic and unreliable; not sure it makes much sense to have a prediction with this resolution criterion.