@Jide Well, it's been 11 years since the last book, so... around 3.5 years to go?

@rappatoni To be fair, this question was closed for a bit, roughly between March 20th and 30th. People probably would've updated faster if it weren't for that.

@Sylvain Thank you all for voting, and expressing your confidence in @RyanBeck and me! I look forward to helping improve this wonderful community!

I performed [an analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G3elo_3-FAJ2TuguB2IfG5Ts33Y-WCKVGoh_Zeirc_c/edit?usp=sharing) based on how long it took for previous applicants to join the EU. I get a first-order estimate of **44%** that Ukraine will join the EU by 2030. Other considerations, like... * The current state of war, * The fact that I ignored countries which failed to join, * The general tendency for eastern European countries to have longer accession times, ...makes me treat the estimate above as more of an upper bound. I'll go for a fina...

The date range should be logarithmic. I imagine most people with short or medium timelines will be predicting <2060.

@Olmy I'm gonna be boring and say "another primate that ends up adopting a human-like niche in the environment". Not the only possibility, but maybe the most likely one.

The question resolves negative. It's May now and the highest rated model is Google's T5 at 89.3%.

Shame it got so close, but I guess that's how it goes. It seems the resolution date was set too far ahead as well, so people might get their points truncated if that's not adjusted.

Being able to bookmark questions (independently of upvoting them) would be nice. I use upvotes for that purpose at the moment, but the two really ought to be decoupled.

LessWrong: Whole Brain Emulation: No Progress on C. elgans After 10 Years

@Jgalt Is it really a World War if it doesn't start on Earth?

@QI92756340QI This asks about energy consumption being at least 30% above every prior year. A crash and rebound is irrelevant so long as it doesn't exceed the previous peak by more than that.

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The community currently predicts that $1T will happen in 2026, but in this other question people believe SpaceX will only be worth $500B by 2030.

I wonder what's the most plausible scenario for this to resolve positively? Here's one attempt: 1. A dozen or so humans are sent to Mars as part of our first crewed mission to the red planet. 2. Soon after landing, some entity back on Earth creates the world's first AGI. It turns out to be misaligned and capable of fast takeoff, meaning it starts turning the entire planet into some equivalent of paperclips in a matter of months or less. 3. The Mars colonists, now the last survivors of humanity until the AI comes for them too, watch in sheer horror. Some...

@placeybordeaux Doge-1 is part of the IM-1 mission, which is currently planned for late 2022 as far as I can tell, though it may slip further.

That mission will land on the Moon, so assuming it does so successfully and carries at least 1 of the actual crypto onboard, it could resolve this positively.

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@Sylvain Happens to me as well, at least on mobile.

Similar question, currently sitting at 14%: Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?

Based on the preprint, AlphaCode gets top-5 accuracies of:

• 20.36% on introductory problems
• 9.66% on interview problems
• 7.75% on competition problems

Bold is SOTA. OpenAI's Codex does a little better on introductory problems. Doesn't look like they tested top-1 accuracy as per this question.

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Computer Scientists Attempt to Corner the Collatz Conjecture - Quanta Magazine

SpaceX files for 20 km hop with FCC. NET October 11.

@Jgalt Has Bezos expressed any specific desire to personally land on the moon? Just wondering if this might work better as a binary question by a certain date (say 2040 or 2050), but we could go either way.